Havazodzokizve here? Izvi zvingaonekwa seimwe fungu rekutama here? Demographers Mikhail Denisenko naYulia Florinskaya vanotsanangura nezvesaiti https://meduza.io/.
Pashure paFebruary 24, apo Russia yakatanga hondo yakazara muUkraine, vanhu vokuRussia vakawanda vakasarudza kubuda munyika yacho. Kune vamwe, iyi imhinduro yechinguvana. Vamwe vanoziva kuti vangasazodzokera kunyika yacho. Nezvekuti vangani vanhu vakasiya Russia, ndeupi wavo anogona kunzi seanoenda kune dzimwe nyika, uye kuti izvi zvese zvichakanganisa sei nyika mune ramangwana, Meduza akataura naMikhail Denisenko, mutungamiriri weHSE Institute of Demography, uye Yulia Florinskaya, muongorori anotungamira. paRANEPA Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting.
Kubvunzurudza naMikhail Denisenko kwakaitika pamberi pekupinda kweRussia kuUkraine, naYulia Florinskaya mushure mekutanga kwehondo.
- Unogona here kufungidzira kuti vangani vanhu vakasiya Russia mushure meFebruary 24?
Julia Florinskaya: Ini handina fungidziro - kwete chaiyo kana isiriyo. Zvakawanda zvekurongeka kwenhamba. Kurongeka kwangu kwenhamba kunenge 150 zviuru zvevanhu.
Sei ndichidaro? Zvose zvinoenderana nenhamba dzinenge dzakafanana dzakapihwa mazita. Nhamba yekubva muRussia kuenda kuGeorgia kwevhiki yokutanga [yehondo] yakanga iri 25,000 30. Paiva nenhamba ye50-15 zviuru vakaenda kuArmenia [kubva pakupera kwaFebruary kusvika kutanga kwaApril]. Inenge zviuru gumi nezvishanu, maererano nedata yazvino, yakapinda muIsrael. Zvichienderana nenhamba idzi - sezvo denderedzwa renyika dzakasiya vanhu riri diki - ndinofunga kuti mumavhiki maviri ekutanga kwaive nevanhu 100,000 vakaenda. Zvichida pakupera kwaMarch - kutanga kwaApril, 150 zviuru, kusanganisira avo vakanga vatova kunze kwenyika [panguva iyo kurwisa kwakatanga] uye havana kudzoka.
Iye zvino vari kuedza kufungidzira mamwe mamiriyoni, 500, 300 zviuru. Handifungi muzvikamu izvozvo – uye magadzirirwo anoitwa fungidziro idzi anoita seane mubvunzo kwandiri. Semuenzaniso, ongororo yakaitwa ne [OK Russian project] Mitya Aleshkovsky: vakangotora nhamba idzi - zviuru makumi maviri neshanu vakaenda kuGeorgia muvhiki yekutanga - uye vakasarudza kuti muvhiki yechipiri kwaivawo ne25 zviuru. Uye sezvo 25% yevakabvunzurudzwa vaibva kuGeorgia, vakaverenga ndokuti: zvinoreva kuti 15 vakabva [kubva kuRussia].
Asi izvi hazvina kuitwa, nekuti kana uine zviuru makumi maviri nemashanu muvhiki yekutanga, hapana akataura kuti zvichave zvakafanana mune yechipiri. Chechipiri, kana 25% kubva kuGeorgia yakakupindura, izvi hazvirevi kuti pane 15% yevaya vose vakasiya Russia panguva ino. Zvose izvi zvakanyorwa nepitchfork pamvura.
- Rimwe zuva, data yakaonekwa pawebsite yehuwandu hwehurumende pakuyambuka kwemuganhu nevaRussia mumwedzi mitatu yekutanga ye2022. Havana kupa pfungwa yenhamba yevaya vakasiya?
Florinskaya: Iyi data hairatidze chero chinhu. Izvi zviri kungosiya nyika (pasina data pamusoro penhamba yevaya vakapinda muRussia kumashure - approx. Meduza) - uye kwekota, kureva, kusanganisira mazororo eGore Idzva.
Semuyenzaniso, 20,000 vanhu vakawanda vakaenda kuArmenia pane 2020 (asati COVID [muRussia]), kana 30,000 kupfuura muna 2019. KuTurkey - kutaura zvazviri, nhamba yakafanana muna 2019. Asi muna 2021, paiva 100,000 zvimwe [ vanoenda ikoko], sezvo dzimwe nyika dzose dzakavharwa.
Pakazara, vanhu 3.9 miriyoni vakabva kuRussia muchikamu chekutanga che2022, 8.4 miriyoni muna 2019, uye 7.6 miriyoni muna 2020. Muna 2021 chete, pakukwirira kwecovid, pakanga paine vashoma - 2.7 miriyoni. Asi izvi zvine musoro.
- Uye iyo data chaiyo pane avo vakasiya ichaonekwa riini?
Florinskaya: Zvichida kucharamba kuine fungidziro, sezvakaitwa neGeorgia pakuyambuka muganhu wayo (somuenzaniso, pakupera kwaMarch, Ministry of Internal Affairs yeGeorgia yakashuma kuti 35 zviuru vagari veRussian Federation vakapinda munyika mumwedzi, 20.7 zviuru zvasara; hazvina kuziviswa). Asi nhamba dzehurumende hadzisi kuzoonekwa gore rino.
Zvakare, uku kuyambuka muganhu. Izvi hazvirevi kuti vanhu vanosiiwa. Pakati peavo vakapinda muGeorgia, pane avo vakatanga kupinda muArmenia kana, somuenzaniso, Turkey.
- Maererano nekufungidzira kweUN, kubva muna 2021, vanenge mamiriyoni gumi nevaviri vanobva kuRussia vaigara kunze kwenyika - iyi ndiyo nhamba yechitatu munyika yose mushure meIndia neMexico. Mashoko aya ndeechokwadi sei?
Mikhail Denisenko: Kana tichitaura nezve chero chiitiko chevanhu, nhamba dzinofanira kunzwisiswa. Kune mastatistics edu ekutama, kune vekunze, kune masangano epasi rese. Patinoshandisa nhamba uye tisingazivi tsanangudzo, izvi zvinotungamirira kumarudzi ose ezviitiko.
Chii chinonzi UN assessment? Vanhu vanobva kune dzimwe nyika vanobva kune dzimwe nyika vanorondedzerwa sei? Mutami (migration) munhu akaberekerwa kune imwe nyika uye anogara kune imwe (kutama kwakadaro kune dzimwe nguva kunonzi kutama kweupenyu hwose). Uye nhamba dzeUN dzinongobva pane izvi - ndezvevanhu vakaberekerwa muRussia, asi vanogara kunze kwayo.
Chii mune idzi nhamba chisingakodzeri ini uye nyanzvi dzakawanda? Kutama kwoupenyu hwose [maererano neUN] kunosanganisirawo vaya vakabva kuRussia [vachienda kunyika dzakabatana] munguva yeSoviet. Nokudaro, nhamba idzi [pamusoro pevakabva kuRussia], pamwe chete nevekare (kuti mamiriyoni gumi nemaviri vanotamira kuRussia vanogara muRussia), vanofanira kubatwa nehanya. Nokuti vanhu variko chaizvo… Semuyenzaniso, handina kuzvarirwa muRussia. Uye mune idzi nhamba, ndinowira muhuwandu hwevanotama. Hapana ane hanya kuti ndave ndichigara muRussia kubvira ndiine makore matanhatu, uye vabereki vangu vachangoshanda kunze kwenyika [RF].
Naizvozvo, nhamba yemamiriyoni gumi nerimwe ine ngozi. Zvinogadzira fungidziro yekuti nhamba huru yevanhu vakatama munguva pfupi yapfuura.
Ini nevandinoshanda navo tine bhuku rine musoro unoti “Migrations from the Newly Independent States. Makore 25 kubva pakuparara kweSoviet Union. Maererano nefungidziro yedu, kubva pakupera kwema1980 kusvika muna 2017 pamwe chete, kune vanhu vangangoita mamirioni matatu vakaberekerwa muRussia uye vanogara kure kune dzimwe nyika. Izvozvi, kwete mamirioni gumi nerimwe [sezviri muUN data], asi matatu. Saka, kana ukashandisa nhamba dzeUN, unofanira, kana zvichibvira, kubvisa yaichimbova Soviet republics kubva mairi. Izvo zvichave zvakanyanya chokwadi. Somuenzaniso, vanhu vakawanda vakaberekerwa muRussia uye vakatamira kuUkraine munguva yeSoviet. Kana kutora vanhu "vakarangwa": Latvians neLithuanians vakadzoka kubva kuutapwa nevana vakaberekerwa muRussia.
-Vanowanepi data rekunyora manhamba ekutama?
Denisenko: Pane maviri pfungwa mumigration nhamba: migration kuyerera uye migration stock, kureva kuyerera uye nhamba.
Nhamba dzeUN dzingori nhamba. Kuverengwa kwevanhu kuri kuitwa, umo mune mubvunzo pamusoro penzvimbo yekuzvarwa. Kupfuurirazve, UN inounganidza data kubva kunyika dzese uko census dzakaitwa uye inoita fungidziro dzayo. Munyika dzisina kuverengwa kwevanhu (idzi inyika dzine urombo kana, toti, North Korea), hakuna vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika. [Mukuverengwa kwevanhu] panogona kunge paine mimwe mibvunzo: "Wakauya rini munyika?" uye “Kubva kunyika ipi?” Ivo vanonatsiridza ruzivo nezve vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika uye, musimboti, vanotipa pfungwa yekuyerera.
Ongororo dzinomiririra nyika dzinoitwawo. Ini ndinowanzo kukwidza kuUnited States, nekuti, kubva pakuona kwangu, nhamba dzekutama dzakanyatsorongwa ipapo. Ongororo yenharaunda yeAmerica inoitwa ikoko gore rega rega - uye kubva kune idzi data ndinogona kuwana ruzivo, toti, nezve vangani vanobva kuRussia vari munyika.
Ruzivo rwekuyerera runogona kuwanikwa kubva kune manejimendi masosi. Tine sevhisi iyi yemuganhu (inopa ruzivo pamusoro pekuyambuka muganhu, kwauri kuenda uye nechikonzero chipi) uye basa rekufambisa (rinounganidza ruzivo pamusoro pevakauya, kubva kunyika ipi, pazera ripi).
Asi iwe pachako unonzwisisa kuti nhamba dzekuyerera ndedzipi: munhu mumwe chete anogona kufamba kakawanda mukati megore, uye ruzivo rwunounganidzwa kwete nezvevanhu, asi nezvekufamba.
Florinskaya: MuRussia, [vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika] vanoverengwa nenhamba yevakasiya [kubva pakati pevagari vemo]. Panguva imwecheteyo, Rosstat anotarisa chete avo vakadzingwa. Uye kure nevaRussia vese vanotama vanobviswa kubva murejista iyi. Sezvakangoita havasi vese vanobva munyika vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika. Naizvozvo, danho rekutanga nderekuziva [muRosstat data] vagari vekuRussia vakadzingwa uye voenda kunyika dzekuMadokero (uko kunonyanya kuenda kune dzimwe nyika), uye kuverenga nhamba yavo. Pamberi pecovid, paive ne15-17 zviuru zvavo pagore.
Zvisinei, vazhinji vanoenda vasina kuzivisa kuenda kwavo nenzira ipi zvayo, saka itsika kuverenga maererano nedata renyika dzakagamuchira. Iwo akasiyana kakawanda kubva kuRosstat data. Musiyano unoenderana nenyika, mune mamwe makore [data renyika inotambira] yaive yakakura katatu, kashanu uye kunyange ka20 kupfuura data yeRossstat [pakuenda kunyika ino]. Paavhareji, unogona kuwanda nenhamba shanu kana nhanhatu [Rosstat vangangosvika zviuru gumi nezvishanu-gumi nenomwe pagore].
Kare muRussia, vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika vaionekwa zvakasiyana.
ASI AS?
Denisenko: Pane musimboti unoyera muzvidzidzo zvekutama kuti zviri nani kudzidza kutama zvichienderana nehuwandu hwenyika nenzvimbo dzekugamuchira. Tinoda humbowo hwekuti munhu wacho akaenda kana kuti asvika. Humbowo hwekuti akaenda kazhinji husipo. Iwe unonzwisisa: munhu anobva kuMoscow achienda kuUnited States, anogamuchira green card, uye muMoscow ane imba, kunyange basa. Uye nhamba dze[Russian] hadzione izvi. Asi muUnited States (nedzimwe nyika), anofanira kunyoresa. Nokudaro, nhamba dzekugamuchira dzakarurama.
Uye pano rimwe dambudziko rinomuka: ndiani anganzi mutorwa? Pane munhu akauya? Uye kana asiri munhu, zvino ndiani? MuUnited States, semuenzaniso, wakagamuchira green kadhi - iwe uri mutorwa. Zvimwe chetezvo ndezvechokwadi muAustralia neCanada. MuEurope, kana ukagamuchira mvumo yekugara kwenguva yakati, zvichida yakareba (mwedzi mipfumbamwe yakafanana kana gumi nemiviri), une chimiro chemutorwa.
MuRussia, hurongwa hwakafanana neEurope. Isu tinoshandisa chirevo chenguva pfupi: kana munhu akauya kuRussia kwemwedzi mipfumbamwe kana kupfuura, anowira mune izvo zvinonzi vagari vemo. Uye kazhinji kazhinji iyi nhamba [mwedzi mipfumbamwe] inoratidzirwa nokutama, kunyange zvazvo munhu angauya kwamakore maviri ozodzokera shure.
Florinskaya: Kana tikatora data rekodhi rekodhi munyika dzekunze dze "classic" emigration, zvino pakupera kwa2021, vangangoita miriyoni imwe nehafu vagari vekuRussia vakanyoreswa nemarekodhi ekonsolari. Sezvo mutemo, havasi vose vanowana pane consular rejista. Asi, nerumwe rutivi, havasi vese vanotorwa mifananidzo kana vadzokera [kuRussia].
Iwe unogona zvakare kutarisa kuti vangani vanhu vakazivisa [Russian mutemo wezvemitemo] nezvechipiri chizvarwa kana mvumo yekugara kubva 2014, payakaitwa yekumanikidza. Vanhu vanenge miriyoni vanobva kunyika dzokutama kwekare [kubva kuRussia] vakazvizivisa vamene mumakore apfuura. Asi kune vakasiya kare, hongu, hapana chavakazivisa.
Sei uye kupi ivo vanobva kuRussia
- Zviri pachena here kuti Russia yakasvika sei chiratidzo chemamiriyoni matatu evanhu vakasiya (maererano nekufungidzira kwako)?
Denisenko: Hongu, tinoziva kuti vanhu vakatanga kuenda rini, kwavakaenda uye nezvikonzero zvipi. Nhamba dzinotaura nezvazvo.
Unoyeuka, muSoviet Union, kutama kwakanga kusiri pachena. Kusvikira pakupera kwema1920, USSR yakazaruka, ndokuzovharwa. Mushure mehondo, kwaiva ne "hwindo" duku, kunyange "hwindo", kuGermany kwemakore akati wandei, ndokubva ravharika. NaIsrael, zvese zvaive zvakaoma. Asi, sekutonga, misangano [yevatungamiri veSoviet] nevatungamiri veAmerica yakatungamirira kuchokwadi chokuti "hwindo" rakazarurirwa kuIsrael, kwete, kwete, uye zviuru makumi matatu [kuruboshwe]. Muma1980, apo dambudziko reAfghan rakatanga, kutama [kubva kuUSSR] kwakatomira.
Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev, uyo anowanzotsoropodzwa, haana kuzarura hwindo, asi chaizvo hwindo. Mutemo weSoviet wakawedzera kuvimbika - zvirinani [kusvika pakuenda] kwevamwe vanhu. Kubva 1987, kubuda kwakatanga. Pakutanga, hwindo rakanga rakazaruka kune vemarudzi vanobva kune dzimwe nyika - vaJudha, maGermany, maGiriki, maHungary, maArmenians. Pakutanga, kubuda kwaiva kuduku, asi zvakazotanga kuwedzera zvakanyanya.
Dambudziko rema1990, hongu, rakatanga kusundira vanhu kunze. Pavanopfuura mamiriyoni matatu [vakatama], vanopfuura hafu vakasara mukupera kwema1980-1990. Vanenge 95% - kuGermany, United States neIsrael. Kune chikamu chakakosha chevanhu vakaenda kuGermany neIsrael, nzira yekuenda kune imwe nyika yaive yekudzokera. MuUnited States, nzira huru panguva iyoyo yakanga iri vapoteri.
Ipapo pakava nechinjo, uye izvi zviwanikwa zvokudzorerwa kumusha zvakaderedzwa [sezvo vazhinjisa vavamiriri vevashomanene venyika vakasiya]. MuGermany, vakatanga kudzikamisa kuwanda kwevakadzokera kunyika dzavo. Kana pakutanga kwema1990 75% [yevakapinda kubva kuRussia] vaive maGerman, pakati pema1990 chete 25% yavo vaive maGerman. Uye vamwe vose - nhengo dzemhuri dzavo - vaiva maRussia, Kazakhs, chero munhu, asi kwete maGermany. Sezvingatarisirwa, [izvi zvinogona kutungamirira ku] matambudziko nekubatanidzwa, nemutauro - uye zvirambidzo zvakatanga kuunzwa [kune avo vanoda kuenda], kunyanya mumutauro wechiGerman. Haasi munhu wese aigona kuipfuudza: mushure mezvose, chiGerman hachisi Chirungu.
Muma1990, dambudziko guru rokuenda, ndinofunga, rakanga rakamira mumutsetse pamumiriri. Kwakanga kuchine vashoma vamiririri, zvaive zvakafanira kumira kwenguva yakareba - kwete zuva kana maviri, asi vhiki kana maviri. Asi nyika dzakanga dzakazaruka zvakakwana [kugamuchira vanhu vanobva kune yaichimbova USSR]. Munhu wose aiziva kuti kwaiva nekuyerera kwevanhu vakawanda vanokwanisa kubva kuSoviet Union. Paive nemhando dzakasiyana dzezvirongwa, zvipo - zvevadzidzi, vesainzi.
Uye mukutanga kwema2000, maropafadzo ose aya akavharwa. Nyika [Russia] yakava yegutsaruzhinji [ichienzaniswa neUSSR], uye, toti, chimiro chomupoteri chaifanira kuratidzirwa zvakakomba, kukwikwidzana navamwe vaida kubva. Kune rumwe rutivi, kuyerera kwakaderera, maitiro ekusarudza akaonekwa. Kune rumwe rutivi, aya maitiro ekusarudza, chaizvoizvo, akatanga kuumba kuyerera kwevanotama: ndiani anosiya, nei uye kupi.
Takazopedzisira nei? Yakawana chiteshi "hama". Iye zvino 40-50% yevakabva kuRussia vanosiya kuburikidza nemugero wekubatanidzwazve kwemhuri, ndiko kuti, kuenda kuhama.
Chimwe chikamu inyanzvi dzakanyatsokwanisa: masayendisiti, mainjiniya, vanogadzira mapurogiramu, vatambi, vatambi ve ballet, zvichingodaro. Muma1990, vanhu vakakurumbira vakasiya [Russia], muma2000 nema2010, sekutonga, vanhu vaduku vane tarenda. Imwe, yechitatu, chikamu vanhu vakapfuma. Semuyenzaniso, Speini yaive imwe yenyika dzekutanga muEurope kubvumidza kutengeswa kwezvivakwa kune vatorwa. Tine nharaunda huru ikoko.
Chii chinonzi wave of migration? Ndeapi masaisai ekutama kubva kuRussia anosiyaniswa?
Denisenko: Fungidzira girafu umo iyo yakaderera axis, iyo abscissa, inguva. Isu [muRussia] tine nhamba dzekutama muna 1828, ikozvino 2022. Uye pane chati iyi tinoronga nhamba yevanotama. Kana nhamba yacho ichiwedzera, rudzi rwemasaisai runoumbwa. Chaizvoizvo, iyi ndiyo yatinodaidza kuti wave. Masaisai chinhu chakakosha chinotora nguva inopfuura gore.
Isu takanga tine mamwe akawanda anosimuka. Mhepo yekutanga - kuguma kwema1890 - kutanga kwezana remakore. Uku ndiko kutama kwemaJuda-kuPoland, saka kazhinji hakusarudzwe sefungu. Asi rakanga riri fungu rine simba, gurusa zvikuru [kutama munhau yenyika], takarwa namaItaly nokuda kwenzvimbo yokutanga munhamba yevakatamira kuUnited States. Ipapo fungu iri rakatanga kukurudzirwa neRussia neUkraine vatama. Hondo Yenyika Yekutanga yakagumisa zvese izvi.
Yechipiri wave mukuverenga nguva uye yekutanga, kana tikatora nguva yeSoviet, ndeye chena kubuda. Zvadaro mauto uye mushure mehondo vakatama muma1940-1950s. Kutama kwenguva 1960-1980 kunonziwo wave, kunyangwe izvi zvisiri izvo. [Pachati] mutsara wakatwasuka, asi nguva nenguva pane kuputika, nhanho. Asi ma1990 aive mafungu.
- Uye chii chakaitika kutama kubva kuRussia mumakore makumi maviri apfuura?
Denisenko: Paive nematanho here? Mubvunzo wakanaka, asi wakandiomera kuupindura, nekuti handisi kuona matanho akajeka [panguva ino].
- Maererano nemanzwiro angu, vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika, vashandi uye vatori venhau vakatanga kubuda munyika muna 2021. Nhamba dzinoti chii pamusoro peizvi?
Denisenko: Ndichakuodza mwoyo, asi nhamba haioni izvi. Asi angasaona nezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana.
Nhamba, pane zvinopesana, inoona kuderedzwa kwekuyerera - kwete chete kubva kuRussia. Ehe, covid, kudzora matanho akatorwa [pakufamba pakati penyika]. Semuenzaniso, nhamba dzeAmerica - United States inotora imwe yenzvimbo nhatu dzepamusoro munzira yekutama kubva kuRussia - ye2020 inoratidza chidimbu chehuwandu hwevakapinda. Kunze kweavo vanofamba nemavhiza ebasa. Kana tikatora vagamuchiri vegirinhi makadhi, saka pane zvakare vashoma vavo. Chokwadi ndechekuti unonyorera kadhi regirinhi kwegore kana maviri [usati watama]. Mamiriro ezvinhu akafanana muEurope: kuderedzwa kwakaitika kwose kwose, kunze kwechikamu chimwe chete - avo vanoenda kunoshanda.
- Iwe wakataura kuti nhamba haioni kuwedzera kwekubva kuRussia muna 2021. Sezvandinoziva, vazhinji vakasiya kuGeorgia imwe chete, uko munhu anogona kugara kusvika gore asina visa uye chero chimiro. Vanhu vakadaro vangangotadza kupinda muhuwandu here?
Denisenko: Hongu, chaizvo. Iwe unogona kuenda kune imwe nyika kwenguva yakati, semuenzaniso, pane rubatsiro, uye kwete kuva pakati pevagari venguva dzose. Pano zvakare pane dambudziko retsanangudzo. Munhu anozviona semutorwa, asi nyika haimuoni semutorwa. Chimwe chikamu ndechevanhu vane mapasipoti maviri. Vakasvika kuRussia, ipapo chimwe chinhu hachina kuvaitira, vakadzokera. Izvo hazvina kuverengerwa muhuwandu zvakare.
Mushure meBolotnaya Square, vazhinji vakatiwo vaive nemanzwiro ekuti munhu wese aenda. Uye zvaingova, zvichida, avo vakasiya avo vaiva nemukana - mvumo yekugara kana chimwe chinhu mune imwe nyika. Zvadaro, nenzira, pakanga pane kuvhiyiwa kuduku, asi chaizvoizvo kwegore.
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-Kuenda kwevanhu kubva kuRussia mushure meFebruary 24 kunganzi wave wave here?
Florinskaya: Zvichida, kana vazhinji vevanhu ava vasingadzoki. Nekuti vazhinji vakasiya kumirira kunze kwekuvhunduka. Zvakadaro, vazhinji vavo vakasiya kuti vashande vari kure. Izvi zvichabvira sei? Ndinofunga kuti nokukurumidza hazvizoiti zvakanyanya. Unofanira kutarisa.
Panyaya yenhamba [yeavo vakaenda], hongu, iyi yakawanda mumwedzi. [Chiyero chekutama kubva kuRussia muma1990s] hachisati chasvikwa, asi kana gore rikaenderera sezvarakatanga, saka tinokwana zvakakwana uye, pamwe, kunyange kupindirana mamwe makore ekuma1990. Asi chete kana kusimuka kuchizoitika nekumhanya sezvazviri iko zvino - uye, kutaura chokwadi, handina chokwadi nezveizvi. Zvingori nekuti, mukuwedzera kune chishuwo uye kusunda zvinhu, kune zvakare mamiriro enyika dzakatambira. Zvinoita sekuti zvino dzave dzakaomera munhu wese.
Kunyange kana tisingatauri pamusoro pekuchenjerera kune vanhu vane pasipoti yeRussia, asi zvine musoro, zvakaoma kubva: ndege hadzibhururuke, hazvibviri kuwana visa kunyika dzakawanda. Panguva imwecheteyo, kune matambudziko nekuwana zvinopihwa, kusakwanisa kugamuchira mabhezari edzidzo. Mushure mezvose, vazhinji vavo vakadzidza nerutsigiro rwemari yekufunda. Ikozvino mikana iyi iri kushomeka, nekuti mari zhinji dzekufunda dzichagovera [mari] kune vapoteri vekuUkraine. Izvi zvine musoro.
Ndiani ari kubva kuRussia. Uye ndiani ari kuuya
-Emigration inogona kuitika nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana - semuenzaniso, zvehupfumi, zvematongerwo enyika, zvemunhu. Muchiitiko chipi chatiri kutaura nezvekumanikidzirwa kutama?
Denisenko: Kumanikidzwa kuenda kune dzimwe nyika ndiko kana iwe uri, tingati, wadzingwa kunze kwenyika. Hondo yakatanga - vanhu vanomanikidzwa kuenda. Ecological njodzi - Chernobyl, mafashamo, kusanaya kwemvura - zvakare muenzaniso wekumanikidzwa kutama. Kusarura. Imwe nzira kana imwe, izvi ndizvo zvese zvakabatana nepfungwa ye "mupoteri".
Pane nzira dzakajeka dzekutsvaga vapoteri nevanotsvaga hupoteri. Kana iwe ukatora nhamba, iyo contingent kubva kuRussia haisi diki. Sechivanhu, vanhu vanobva kuNorth Caucasus, Chechen diaspora, uye vashoma pabonde vanowira mairi.
-Kubuda kwevanhu vakawanda kubva kuRussia iko zvino kumanikidzwa kutama?
Florinskaya: Hongu. Kunyange zvazvo pakati peavo vakaenda, pane vanhu vakaronga kutama, asi mune ramangwana, mumamiriro ezvinhu akadzikama. Vakamanikidzwawo kutiza, nokuti vaitya kuti nyika yaizovhara, kuti vaizozivisa kuunganidza, zvichingodaro.
Kana tichitaura nezvekumanikidzwa kutama, hapana nguva yezvikonzero. Vanhu vanongofunga kuti vari kuponesa hupenyu hwavo. Zvishoma nezvishoma, kana njodzi yakananga yapfuura, zvinoitika kuti vazhinji vavo vakaenda nekuda kwezvikonzero zvehupfumi uye havazodzoki kwavari. Nokuti ivo vanonyatsoziva zvichaitika kuhupfumi hweRussia, kuti havazokwanisi kushanda, kuchengetedza mararamiro ehupenyu hwavaiva nahwo.
Chimwe chikamu - uye chikamu chikuru mukuyerera uku - hachidzoke nekuda kwezvikonzero zvezvematongerwo enyika. Nemhaka yokuti havasati vagadzirira kurarama munzanga isina kusununguka. Uyezve, vanotya kupomerwa mhosva yakananga.
Ndinofunga kuti avo vanosarudza kusiya zvachose, pane kumirira [kunze], havazosarudze yakanakisa kupa. Ivo vanozoenda kune imwe nzvimbo kwaunogona kugadzikana uye neimwe nzira upone munguva dzino dzakaoma.
- Kuenda kune dzimwe nyika kunobata sei Russia maererano nehupfumi hwevanhu uye hupfumi?
Denisenko (akapindura mubvunzo isati yatanga hondo, - approx. Meduza): Unoziva, ndinoda kutaura pakarepo kuti inobata zvakaipa. Tine kubuda kwevanhu vane hunyanzvi uye vakadzidza, avo vatinoziva nehunhu hwevanhu. Chii chiri kupokana apa? Pane dambudziko mukati menyika - kusawirirana kwezvitupa nenzvimbo yebasa. Mumwe munhu akapedza kudzidza, semuenzaniso, kubva kuFaculty of Engineering, uye anoshanda semaneja muchitoro - izvi zvakare, kune imwe nhanho, kurasikirwa kwehupfumi hwevanhu. Kana tikatora dambudziko iri, saka, zvichida, kurasikirwa uku kunoderedzwa zvishoma maererano nehuwandu.
Kune rumwe rutivi, avo vanoenda, vangazivikanwa kusvikira kutambanukoi muno [muRussia]? Pamwe havakwanise kuzviziva zvizere, sezvavanoita ikoko [kunze], munyika yedu. Kana vanhu, nyanzvi dzichibva uye dzichiramba dzichionana nenyika yekwavo, kungave kufambiswa kwemari, kuwanda kwehunyanzvi, uye zvichingodaro, iyi inguva yakajairika.
Florinskaya (kupindura mubvunzo mushure mekutanga kwehondo, - approx. Meduza): KuRussia, zvakaipa. Kuyerera kwevanokwanisa vanobva kune dzimwe nyika, kureva kuti, vanhu vane dzidzo yepamusoro, vachakwira gore rino kupfuura makore apfuura.
Zvinoratidzika kuva zvakafanana [zvisingakoshi] mukuwirirana nenyika yedu huru yokumusha, kunyanguvezvo zvinogona kutapura. Nekuti kune kubuda kwakawanda kwevagari, vanhu vehunyanzvi hwakasiyana, asi vane dzidzo yepamusoro - vatori venhau, nyanzvi dzeIT, masayendisiti, vanachiremba, zvichingodaro. Izvi zvinogona kunge zvichikuvadza, asi zvave kukasika kutaura nezvazvo. Zvinogona kufungidzirwa kuti ichi chichava chimwe chezvinhu zvakashata zvakanyanya zvekumanikidzwa kutama, kunyange kupfuura nhamba [yevanhu vakaenda].
Mukutama uku, huwandu hwevanhu vane dzidzo yepamusoro huchachinja zvakanyanya. Yakanga yatove yakakura - 40-50%, maererano nekufungidzira kwangu, asi ichava 80-90%.
- Ndiani anouya kunzvimbo yevanhu vakasiya muRussia? Kurasikirwa kunozadzikiswa nekurasikirwa kwezvimwe zvikamu zvevanhu uye vanotama?
Denisenko: Mumakore ekuma1990 nema2000, pakanga pane imwe nzvimbo. Vanhu vazhinji vane ruzivo rwakanyanya vakabva ku Union republic. Zvino hakuna kutsiva kwakadaro. Vechidiki vanosiya, kugona kunorasika kusvika kumwero wakati. Uku kurasikirwa kwechokwadi.
Florinskaya: Ndiani achatsiva? Tainzwisisa nezvevatapi venhau – [vakuru] havavada. Nyanzvi dzeIT dzakanyanya hunyanzvi, ndinofunga, zvichanetsa kutsiva. Kana vaongorori vanotanga kuenda, hapana chinogona kuitwa kana. Vana chiremba vanobva kuguta guru vakaenda, semazuva ose, vachatsiviwa navana chiremba vanobva kumatunhu. Munzvimbo dzevashandi vakasiya basa mumafemu makuru, ndinofunga, ivo vachatorwawo kubva kumatunhu. Ndiani acharamba ari mumatunhu, handizivi. Kunyangwe makore gumi apfuura, vakati Moscow inzvimbo yekufambisa pakati pepurovhinzi neLondon. Iri kuseka, asi iyi ndiyo nzira yaigara ichienda kune dzimwe nyika: vanhu vakatanga kuuya kuMoscow, uye kubva ipapo vakaenda kune dzimwe nyika.
Vazhinji vekutama [kuRussia] havasati vava nehunyanzvi, saka izvi handizvo [apo vanotama vanogona kutsiva vanamazvikokota vakaenda]. Vane tarenda uye vanokwanisa kubva kuCIS vanodawo kusagara muRussia, asi kuenda kune dzimwe nyika. Zvaimboda kuvakwezva, asi takazosimudza mhino dzedu. Uye zvino nei vachifanira kuenda kunyika iri pasi pezvirango, kana uchikwanisa kushanda kune dzimwe nyika? Zvakaoma kufungidzira kuti mumwe munhu achaenda pano mumamiriro ezvinhu aya.
CHII CHICHAITIKA KUMASOKO WEBASA MURUSSIA
• Tiri kudzokera kumashure here kuma1990? Vanhu vangani vachakurumidza kushaya mabasa? Zvakanaka, kana mihoro ichabhadharwa? Kana kuti kwete?.. Anopindura muongorori wemusika wevashandi Vladimir Gimpelson
- Pane zvatove nekuchinja kunooneka kune kune vashandi vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika vakashanda muRussia kusvika munguva pfupi yapfuura? Vanoramba vachishanda here kana kuti varikuendawo?
Florinskaya: Pakanga pasina shanduko pakutanga kwaKurume. Takatanga ongororo yekutyaira, tichangobva kuwana data. Chimwe chikamu chinoti hungu, zvakakosha kubva [kubva kuRussia], asi kusvika ikozvino kune vashomanana vavo. Vamwe vose vanoti: “Tinazvo zvakatoipisisa.”
Ini ndinofunga kuti kuwanda [kwevashandi vanoenda kuRussia] kuchave kushoma pane yaimboita covid. Uye nekuda kwekuti mukana wekuuya wakaoma zvakare: matikiti anodhura mari yakawanda, kune ndege shoma. Asi vari pano vachamirira kuti vaende. Pamwe nechirimo zvinenge zvashata pano zvekuti mabasa achagurwa, uye izvi zvicharova vanotama. Asi kusvika parizvino izvi hazvisi kuitika.
- Kazhinji, nyika inofanira kunetseka nezvekutama? Zviremera zvinofanira kuisa ngwariro yakawanda sei kwairi? Kuedza kudzivirira?
Denisenko: Sezvineiwo, kutarisisa kunofanirwa kubhadharwa kune vanotama. Sei? Nokuti kubuda kune dzimwe nyika chiratidzo chakasimba chemagariro evanhu uye chehupfumi. Pane chirevo: "Vanhu vanovhota netsoka dzavo." Ichokwadi kunyika dzose. Kana kuyerera [kwekutama] kuchiwedzera, zvinoreva kuti chimwe chinhu chisina kumira zvakanaka mudunhu. Masayendisiti paanoenda, zvinoreva kuti chimwe chinhu chisina kumira zvakanaka musangano resainzi. Vanachiremba vari kuenda - chimwe chinhu chisina kunaka musangano rehutano. Vadzidzi vakapedza kudzidza vanosiya - chinhu chimwe chete. Handei vanogadzira magetsi - pane chakaipa pano. Izvi zvinoda kuongororwa uye kurangarirwa.
Mutemo wehurumende unofanira kuvhurika kune vanoenda. Hapafaniri kuva neganhuriro kana kuti mhinganidzo. Iyi tsika yakaipa haitungamiri kune chero chinhu chakanaka. Tora zvakafanana Soviet Union. Paiva nevanokanganisa - Nureyev, Baryshnikov uye zvichingodaro. Idzi kurasikirwa kusingagadzirisiki: hatina kuona Baryshnikov pachikuva, hatina kuona Nureyev, asi vangadai vakauya dai zvose zvakanga zvakajairika.
Magariro anoita vanhu vanobva kune dzimwe nyika uye nei dzimwe nguva vachidzokera kunyika yavo
Unodzidza vanhu vakasiya here? Kangaije vaya vanobuda vanokwanisa kuezanisira no kutanga kushamwarijana no nyika imweni?
Denisenko (akapindura mubvunzo isati yatanga hondo, - approx. Meduza): Ndinogona kutaura maonero evamwe vangu. Andrey Korobkov, purofesa paYunivhesiti yeTennessee, anobata nemusoro weRussia-America uye kunyanya neavo [maRussia] vanogara imomo [muUS]. Pakati pazvo, katsika kekubatirana zvakasimba zvikuru. Kana maGiriki akabatanidzwa nechitendero, maGermany nezvakaitika kare, saka vedu, avo vakasiya 1990s uye 2000s, vakaedza kuenzanisa uye kuputsa zvakanyanya sezvinobvira. Unotoziva here kuti chaiva chii? Mukudzikisira kutaurirana nevanhu vekwedu. Yaiva imwe yezviratidzo. Sezvino? Zvinoita sekuti maitiro aya ari kuenderera mberi.
Munyika dzeEurope, semuenzaniso muGermany, mamiriro acho akasiyana: kune vakawanda vatauri veRussia ikoko. Idzi hadzisi nyanzvi dzakanyatso kwanisa - kamwe - asi vaimbove vagari vemumusha, maRussian maGerman anokudza tsika. Vakawanda vanoramba vachikurukura.
Chechipiri, kureba kunoitawo basa guru pano: Germany iri padyo neRussia. Vazhinji vanochengeta hukama hwepedyo nenyika, saka kuenzanisa kunononoka. Kune zvakare mamiriro emunyika: Germany idiki [kupfuura US], kune matunhu ekugara akakwana, kune vakawanda vaimbove mauto eSoviet vakasara.
MuFrance neItaly, dambudziko rekufananidzwa rinoiswa zvakasiyana. Tine kutama kweItaly - 80% yevakadzi. French - 70%. Kune vakawanda “vakaroora” vanotama, ndiko kuti, avo vanoroora.
Great Britain, inoratidzika kwandiri, iri kutevera nzira yakafanana neNyika: shure kwezvose, vanhu vari kuedza kuita kuti vana vavo vave "Chirungu". Ivo vanotama ivo pachavo havaputse kubatana nenyika, zvakaoma kuti vaite izvi: vazhinji vavo vachiri nebhizinesi, real estate, shamwari muRussia. Asi vana vavo havafariri zvachose nyika yavo, uye kana vachifarira, saka haina kusimba.
- Maererano nekuona kwangu, vazhinji veavo vakabva kuRussia kubva 2020 kusvika 2021 vakaramba zvachose kuzvidaidza kuti vanobva kune dzimwe nyika, kunyange zvazvo vakakodzera tsanangudzo iyi. Izvi zvakajairika sei?
Denisenko: An migrant is amigrant, munhu akasiya kuti agare zvachose (permanent residence, - approx. Meduza), roughly talking. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin haana kuzviona semutorwa, kunyange zvazvo akafamba-famba muEurope kwenguva yakareba - asi aitarisira kudzoka. Pano, sezviri pachena, vanoda kusimbisa kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu akachinja vachadzokera kunyika.
Zvinoita sekuti iyi ndiyo chete tsananguro pano: vanochengeta chitupa chavo vari kunze kwenyika, havaedze kuzvisvibisa kana kuzvivanza neimwe nzira, asi simbisa: "Ndiri muRussia / muUkraine / muGeorgia, zvirokwazvo ndichadzokera kunyika yangu. , zvichida makore 20 gare gare, asi zvakadaro.”
Zvakafanana nenguva yavo nemapasipoti eNansen. Zvizhinji zvenyika uko vachena vakatamira kune dzimwe nyika vakabvumirwa kubvuma hugari hwavo. Asi [vamwe] vakaramba vaine mapasipoti eNansen. Vakanga vasingazvioni sevakatamira kune vachena uye vaitarisira kuti vaizodzoka.
- Vazhinji vevakasiya vanowana zvavanoda? Pane zvidzidzo here pamusoro pemwero werufaro pakati peavo vakasiya?
Denisenko: Tsvagiridzo padanho rekufara iri kuitwa. Asi ndaizopa mamwe maparameter seyero yerufaro.
Israeri inyika yakanaka yekudzidza mhedzisiro yekutama kwatiri. Nokuti muIsrael nhamba dzevanotama kubva kuSoviet Union dzinochengetwa zvakasiyana. Chii chatinoona kubva pane idzi nhamba? Kubva kuma1990, maJuda akatamira kuIsrael vakatanga kurarama kwenguva refu. Ndiko kuti, nduramo yavo yakakwira zvikuru kupfuura iya yaavo vaJudha vari muno [muRussia]. Vawedzera kuberekwa kwavo. Uye muSoviet Union neRussia, vaJudha ndiro boka rine kuberekwa kwakaderera.
Iko hakuna nhamba dzakadaro muStates, asi kune dzimwe nhamba - semuenzaniso, zviitiko zvakafanana muvanhu vakwegura. Handisati ndichizotongokanganwa apo ndakanga ndakamira mumutsetse nokuda kwamatikiti okuenda kuMetropolitan Opera muNew York, vakadzi vaviri vakanga vakamira shure kwangu. Vaitaura chiRussian, uye takasvika pakuvaziva. Vakadzi ava vakanga vatama kubva Leningrad. Pane imwe nguva vakachema. Unoziva here kuti nei? Vanoti: “Munoziva, hatina kugadzikana. Takatamira kuno uye tiri kufara kuno. Isu tinorapwa, tinogamuchira mari yakawanda, tinogona kuenda kuMetropolitan, asi shamwari dzedu uye vatinoshanda navo vakasara muLeningrad vanonyimwa zvese izvi. Vamwe vacho vakatofa isu tiri pano kunyangwe vari vezera redu.”
Zviratidzo zvakadaro zvinoratidzira zvakanyanya. Basa, mari, dzidzo, basa zviratidzo zvakare. Tinoona kuti muUnited States neCanada, maRussia anozopedzisira atora nzvimbo dzakanaka. Europe yakafanana.
— Kangani kekutamira kune dzimwe nyika kunoitika? Vanhu vanowanzodzoka rini uye nei?
Florinskaya: Kudzokerazve kune dzimwe nyika kwakaitika, asi kakawanda sei uwandu hwakaoma zvikuru kufungidzira. Kuwanda kwebhizimisi renyika dzakawanda kwakakudziridzwa munyika, makambani emarudzi akawanda aivapo, uko aigamuchira dzidzo yokuMadokero akanga achidiwa, [nyanzvi dzechiduku] dzaidzokawo. Kuwanda kwetsvakiridzo dzepasirese, marabhoritari epasi rose, vaongorori vakawanda vakadzoka.
Kana zvangodonha zvese, hapana kwekudzokera. Uyezve, imwe nhanho yemuhoro yakakoshawo.
Vazhinji veaya masaisai vachadzoka here?
Florinskaya: Vanhu vakasungirirwa kumusika wevashandi veRussia, vasingazokwanisi kuwana basa [kune dzimwe nyika], vachadzoka nokuti “vakadya” zvakachengetwa, uye hapazovi nerimwe basa ravanoitira. Haasi munhu wese achakwanisa kushandira kure kure kuRussia. Ndinoziva vamwe vanhu vanoshandira makambani eRussia vakatomanikidzwa kudzoka. Kune makambani akarambidza kushanda kubva kune dzimwe nyika. Kune vadzidzi vaisabvumidzwa kuita zvidzidzo pamhepo. Naizvozvo, kunyange kana 150 zviuru vakasiya, izvi hazvirevi kuti vamwe vavo havana kudzoka.
Zvakare, izvi hazvirevi kuti vanhu iye zvino, vachiona mamiriro ezvinhu ose aya, havasi kugadzirira kuenda kwavo, asi kwete mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro. Kana kare, nguva yeCOVID-19 isati yasvika, 100-120 zviuru zvevanhu vakabva kuRussia pagore, zvino, zvinogoneka kuti nhamba dzichasvika zviuru mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu kana mazana matatu ezviuru. Izvo zvinoenderana nekugona kuyambuka muganhu, nhamba yendege uye kugona kubata pane imwe nzvimbo kune dzimwe nyika.
[Pamberi] vanhu vakatiudza mubvunzurudzo dzakadzama kuti: “Kana ndiri kudiwa, tsvaga basa, saka handirambi kudzoserwa kwangu ndimene. Asi sezvo rusununguko rwehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika rwuchipera munyika, denderedzwa reavo vanogona kudzoka rinogona kudzikira. Ikozvino yadzikira zvakanyanya.
Mufananidzo: Kubviswa kubva kuCrimea. 1920
