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yezizwe ngezizweBangaphi abantu abasuka eRashiya ngenxa yemfazwe?

Bangaphi abantu abasuka eRashiya ngenxa yemfazwe?

INKCAZELO: Ulwazi kunye nezimvo eziveliswe kumanqaku zezo zichazwe kwaye luxanduva lwabo. Ukupapashwa kwi The European Times ayithethi ngokuzenzekelayo ukuvuma imbono, kodwa lilungelo lokuyivakalisa.

INKCAZELO YEENKCUKACHA: Onke amanqaku kule ndawo apapashwa ngesiNgesi. Iinguqulelo eziguqulelweyo zenziwa ngenkqubo ezenzekelayo eyaziwa njengeenguqulelo ze-neural. Ukuba uyathandabuza, soloko ubhekisa kwinqaku lokuqala. Enkosi ngokuqonda.

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The European Times Iindaba zijolise ekufikeleleni iindaba ezibaluleke kakhulu ekwandiseni ulwazi lwabemi kulo lonke ilizwe laseYurophu.

Ngaba abasayi kuze babuye? Ngaba oku kunokuqwalaselwa njengelinye iliza lokufuduka? Iidemographers uMikhail Denisenko kunye noYulia Florinskaya bachaza indawo https://meduza.io/.

Emva koFebruwari 24, xa iRashiya yaqalisa imfazwe enkulu eUkraine, abantu abaninzi baseRashiya bagqiba kwelokuba balishiye elo lizwe. Kwabanye, esi sisisombululo sexeshana. Abanye bayaqonda ukuba basenokungaze babuyele elizweni. Malunga nokuba bangaphi abantu abashiye iRashiya, ngubani kubo onokuthathwa ngokusemthethweni njengabafuduki, kunye nendlela konke oku kuya kuchaphazela ngayo ilizwe kwixesha elizayo, uMeduza wathetha noMikhail Denisenko, umlawuli we-HSE Institute of Demography, kunye noYulia Florinskaya, umphandi ohamba phambili. kwiRANEPA Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting .

Udliwano-ndlebe noMikhail Denisenko lwenzeka ngaphambi kokuhlasela kweRashiya e-Ukraine, kunye noYulia Florinskaya emva kokuqala kwemfazwe.

Ngaba sele uqikelele ukuba bangaphi abantu abashiye iRussia emva kwe-24 kaFebruwari?

UJulia Florinskaya: Andinalo naluphi na uqikelelo – hayi ichanekile okanye ayichanekanga. Kungaphezulu kolandelelwano lwamanani. Umyalelo wam wamanani malunga ne-150 amawaka abantu.

Kutheni ndisitsho nje? Zonke zisekelwe malunga namanani afanayo athiywe. Inani labantu ababenduluka eRashiya besiya eGeorgia kwiveki yokuqala [yemfazwe] babengama-25,000 30. Kwakukho inani lama-50-15 amawaka ahamba eArmenia [ukususela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-Aprili]. Malunga ne-100,000 lamawaka, ngokwedatha yamva nje, yangena kwaSirayeli. Ngokusekelwe kula manani - ekubeni isangqa samazwe apho abantu bahamba khona sincinci - ndicinga ukuba kwiiveki ezimbini zokuqala bekukho abantu abayi-150 abahambayo. Mhlawumbi ekupheleni kukaMatshi - ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, i-XNUMX lamawaka, kubandakanywa nabo babesele bengaphandle [ngexesha lokuhlasela kwaqala] kwaye abazange babuye.

Ngoku bazama ukuqikelela ezinye izigidi, 500, 300 lamawaka. Andicingi kwezo ndidi – kwaye indlela olu qikelelo lwenziwa ngayo ibonakala ithandabuzeka kum. Ngokomzekelo, uphando olwenziwa yi- [ OK Russian project ] uMitya Aleshkovsky: bathatha nje la manani - i-25 lamawaka baya eGeorgia kwiveki yokuqala - kwaye bagqiba ukuba kwiveki yesibini kwakukho ne-25 lamawaka. Kwaye ekubeni i-15% yabo babenodliwano-ndlebe babevela eGeorgia, babala bathi: kuthetha ukuba i-300,000 yashiya [eRashiya].

Kodwa oku akwenziwanga, kuba ukuba unamawaka angama-25 kwiveki yokuqala, akukho mntu uthe kuya kuba yinto efanayo kwisibini. Okwesibini, ukuba i-15% evela eGeorgia ikuphendule, oku akuthethi ukuba kukho ngokwenene i-15% yabo bonke abashiya iRashiya ngeli xesha. Konke oku kubhalwe ngefolokhwe emanzini.

- Ngolunye usuku, idatha yavela kwiwebhusayithi yezibalo zombuso ekuweleni komda ngamaRashiya kwiinyanga ezintathu zokuqala ze-2022. Ngaba abaniki ngcamango yenani labo bahambayo?

Florinskaya: Le datha ayibonisi nto. Oku kushiya nje ilizwe (ngaphandle kwedatha kwinani labo bangena eRashiya emva - malunga neMeduza) - kunye nekota, oko kukuthi, kubandakanywa neeholide zoNyaka omtsha.

Umzekelo, abantu abangama-20,000 ngaphezulu bemka besiya eArmenia kunango-2020 (ngaphambi kwe-COVID [eRussia]), okanye abangama-30,000 ngaphezulu kuka-2019. Ukuya eTurkey - enyanisweni, inani elifanayo nelango-2019. Kodwa ngo-2021, bekukho 100,000 ngaphezulu [ abaya apho], ekubeni onke amanye amazwe ayevaliwe.

Lilonke, abantu abazizigidi ezi-3.9 bashiye iRashiya kwikota yokuqala ye-2022, i-8.4 yezigidi kwi-2019, kunye ne-7.6 yezigidi ngo-2020. Kuphela ngo-2021, ekuphakameni kwe-covid, kwakukho ezimbalwa - izigidi ezi-2.7. Kodwa oku kusengqiqweni.

- Kwaye iya kuvela nini idatha echanekileyo kwabo bashiyileyo?

UFlorinskaya: Mhlawumbi kusekho uqikelelo, njengoko iGeorgia yanikela ngokuwela umda wayo (umzekelo, ekupheleni kukaMatshi, uMphathiswa weMicimbi yangaphakathi waseGeorgia wabika ukuba i-35 yabemi be-Russian Federation bangena kweli lizwe ngenyanga, i-20.7 Iwaka eliseleyo; alichazwanga). Kodwa izibalo ezisemthethweni azizukuvela kulo nyaka.

Kwakhona, oku kukunqumla umda. Oku akuthethi ukuba abantu bashiywe. Phakathi kwabo bangena eGeorgia, kukho abo baqala ukungena eArmenia okanye, umzekelo, eTurkey.

- Ngokoqikelelo lwe-UN, ukususela ngo-2021, malunga ne-11 yezigidi zabafuduki abavela eRashiya bahlala phesheya - lo mfanekiso wesithathu emhlabeni emva kweIndiya neMexico. Ingaba zichaneke kangakanani ezi datha?

UMikhail Denisenko: Xa sithetha ngayo nayiphi na imeko yoluntu, izibalo kufuneka ziqondwe. Kukho izibalo zethu zokufuduka, kukho amazwe angaphandle, kukho imibutho yehlabathi. Xa sisebenzisa amanani kwaye singazi iinkcazo, oku kukhokelela kuzo zonke iintlobo zeziganeko.

Ziziphi iimvavanyo ze-UN? Bachazwa njani abaphambukeli bamanye amazwe ngokubanzi? Umfuduki ngumntu ozalelwe kwelinye ilizwe aze ahlale kwelinye (loo mfuduko maxa wambi ibizwa ngokuba kukufuduka ubomi bonke). Kwaye izibalo ze-UN zisekelwe nje kule nto - zimalunga nabantu abazalelwa eRashiya, kodwa bahlala ngaphandle kwayo.

Yintoni kwezi zibalo ayihambelani nam kunye neengcali ezininzi? Ukufuduka ubomi babo bonke [ngokutsho kweZizwe Ezimanyeneyo] kukwaquka abo bayishiyayo iRashiya [besiya kumazwe amanyeneyo] ebudeni bexesha leSoviet. Ngoko ke, la manani [malunga nabafuduki bevela eRashiya], kunye nabasemva (ukuba abafuduki abazizigidi ezili-12 bahlala eRashiya), kufuneka baphathwe ngononophelo. Kuba ngokwenene kukho abantu… Umzekelo, andizalelwanga eRashiya. Kwaye kwezi zibalo, ndiwela kwinani labafuduki. Akukho mntu undikhathaleleyo ukuba ndihlala eRashiya ukususela xa ndandineminyaka emithandathu ubudala, yaye abazali bam basebenza phesheya [RF].

Ngoko ke, inani lezigidi ezili-11 liyingozi. Idala inkohliso yokuba inani elikhulu labantu liye lafuduka kutshanje.

Mna nabalingane bam sinencwadi enomxholo othi “Ukufuduka Kumazwe Asandul’ Ukuzimela. Kwiminyaka engama-25 emva kokuwa kweSoviet Union. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwethu, ukususela ekupheleni kwe-1980 ukuya kwi-2017, kukho abantu abamalunga nezigidi ezithathu abazalelwe eRashiya kwaye bahlala kumazwe angaphandle. Oko kukuthi, hayi izigidi ezili-11 [njengakwidatha ye-UN], kodwa ezintathu. Ke, ukuba usebenzisa izibalo ze-UN, kufuneka, ukuba kunokwenzeka, ususe iiriphabliki zangaphambili zeSoviet kuyo. Oko kuya kuchaneka ngakumbi. Ngokomzekelo, abantu abaninzi bazalelwa eRashiya baza bafudukela eUkraine ngexesha leSoviet Union. Okanye thabatha abantu "abahlwaywe": Abantu baseLatvia kunye namaLithuania babuya ekuthinjweni kunye nabantwana abazalelwe eRashiya.

-Bayifumana phi idatha yokuqulunqa izibalo zokufuduka?

UDenisenko: Kukho iikhonsepthi ezimbini kwizibalo zokufuduka: ukuhamba kwemfuduko kunye nesitokhwe sokufuduka, oko kukuthi ukuhamba kunye nenani.

Iinkcukacha-manani ze-UN ngamanani nje. Ubalo lwabantu luyenziwa, apho kukho umbuzo malunga nendawo yokuzalwa. Ngaphaya koko, i-UN iqokelela idatha evela kuwo onke amazwe apho ubalo bantu lwenziwa khona kwaye yenze olwayo uqikelelo. Kumazwe apho kungekho balo bantu (lawa ngamazwe ahlwempuzekileyo okanye, athi, iNorth Korea), akukho bantu bafudukayo. [Kubalo lwabantu] kusenokubakho eminye imibuzo: “Uze nini kweli lizwe?” kunye nokuthi “Ivela kweliphi ilizwe?” Bacoca ulwazi malunga nabafuduki kwaye, ngokomgaqo, basinika umbono wokuhamba.

Uvavanyo olumele ilizwe lonke luyaqhutywa. Ndiya kuhlala ndibhenela eUnited States, kuba, ngokombono wam, izibalo zokufuduka zicwangciswe kakuhle apho. Uphando loluntu lwaseMelika luqhutyelwa khona minyaka yonke - kwaye kule datha ndingafumana ulwazi, ndithi, malunga nokuba bangaphi abafuduki abavela eRashiya kwilizwe.

Ulwazi oluhambayo lunokufunyanwa kwimithombo yolawulo. Sinayo le nkonzo yomda (inika ulwazi malunga nokuwela umda, apho uya khona kwaye ngenxa yesiphi isizathu) kunye nenkonzo yokufuduka (iqokelela ulwazi malunga nabo beza, bevela kweliphi ilizwe, kwiminyaka emingaphi).

Kodwa wena ngokwakho uyaqonda ukuba zeziphi izibalo zokuhamba: umntu ofanayo unokuhamba ngamaxesha amaninzi ngonyaka, kwaye ulwazi luqokelelwa kungekhona ngabantu, kodwa malunga nokunyakaza.

UFlorinskaya: ERashiya, [abafuduki] babalwa ngenani labo bemkayo [phakathi kwabemi abasisigxina]. Kwangaxeshanye, iRosstat ithathela ingqalelo kuphela abo baye bacinywa kubhaliso. Kwaye kude kubo bonke abantu baseRashiya abafudukayo bayasuswa kule rejista. Njengokuba ingenguye wonke umntu oshiya ilizwe abaphambukeli. Ke ngoko, inyathelo lokuqala kukuchonga [kwidatha yeRosstat] abemi baseRussia abacinywayo kwaye bahambe baye kumazwe aseNtshona (apho ukufuduka ikakhulu kuhamba), kwaye babale inani labo. Ngaphambi kwe-covid, kwakukho i-15-17 lamawaka kubo ngonyaka.

Nangona kunjalo, uninzi luhamba ngaphandle kokuvakalisa ukuhamba kwabo nangayiphi na indlela, ngoko kuyisiko ukubala ngokweenkcukacha zamazwe abambayo. Amaxesha amaninzi ahluke kwidatha yeRosstat. Umahluko uxhomekeke kwilizwe, kwiminyaka ethile [idatha yelizwe elibamba umkhosi] yayizithathu, ezintlanu kunye namaxesha angama-20 amakhulu kunedatha yaseRosstat [ekuhambeni ukuya kweli lizwe]. Ngokomyinge, ungaphinda-phinda ngamanani amahlanu okanye amathandathu [iRosstat malunga ne-15-17 lamawaka abafudukayo ngonyaka].

Ngaphambili eRashiya, abafuduki babeqwalaselwa ngokwahlukileyo.

KODWA NJENGOKO?

UDenisenko: Kukho umgaqo ongcwele kwizifundo zokufuduka ukuba kungcono ukufunda ukufuduka ngokwezibalo zamazwe kunye nemimandla yokwamkelwa. Sifuna ubungqina bokuba umntu uye wahamba okanye wafika. Ubungqina bokuba umkile kaninzi abukho. Uyaqonda: umntu usuka eMoscow ukuya eUnited States, ufumana ikhadi eliluhlaza, kwaye eMoscow unendlu, nokuba ngumsebenzi. Yaye izibalo [zaseRashiya] aziyiboni le nto. Kodwa eUnited States (nakwamanye amazwe), kufuneka abhalise. Ngoko ke, izibalo zokwamkelwa zichaneke ngakumbi.

Kwaye nantsi enye ingxaki ivela: ngubani onokubizwa ngokuba ngumfuduki? Umntu ozile? Kwaye ukuba akukho mntu, ngubani ke? E-States, umzekelo, ufumene ikhadi eliluhlaza - ungumphambukeli. Kunjalo naseOstreliya naseKhanada. EYurophu, ukuba ufumana iphepha-mvume lokuhlala ixesha elithile, ngokukhethekileyo ixesha elide (elisithoba okanye iinyanga ezili-12 ezifanayo), unesimo somphambukeli.

ERashiya, inkqubo iyafana neyaseYurophu. Sisebenzisa ikhrayitheriya yesikhashana: ukuba umntu uza eRashiya iinyanga ezilithoba okanye ngaphezulu, uwela kwindawo ebizwa ngokuba yisigxina. Yaye ngokufuthi eli nani [iinyanga ezisithoba] linxulunyaniswa nokufuduka, nangona umntu enokuza iminyaka emibini aze abuyele umva.

UFlorinskaya: Ukuba sithatha idatha yeerekhodi ze-consular kumazwe angaphandle "ye-classic" yokufuduka, ngoko ekupheleni kwe-2021, malunga nesigidi esinye nesiqingatha abemi baseRashiya babhalisiwe kunye neerekhodi ze-consular. Njengomthetho, ayinguye wonke umntu ofumana kwirejista ye-consular. Kodwa, kwelinye icala, ayinguye wonke umntu ofotwayo xa ebuyela [eRashiya].

Unokujonga kwakhona ukuba bangaphi abantu abaye bazisiwe [unyanzeliso lomthetho waseRashiya] ngobumi besibini okanye imvume yokuhlala ukususela ngo-2014, xa yenziwa isinyanzelo. Abantu abamalunga nesigidi abasuka kumazwe abafudukayo bamandulo [abasuka eRashiya] bazichaza ukutyhubela iminyaka. Kodwa kukho abo bahamba ngaphambili, ngokuqinisekileyo, abazange bachaze nto.

Bayishiya njani kwaye phi eRashiya

- Ngaba kucacile ukuba iRashiya yafikelela njani kwisalathisi sabantu abayizigidi ezithathu abashiye (ngokoqikelelo lwakho)?

UDenisenko: Ewe, siyazi ukuba abantu baqala nini ukuhamba, bahambe phi kwaye bekutheni. Amanani athetha ngayo.

Uyakhumbula, eSoviet Union, ukufuduka kwakungacacanga yonke into. Kuze kube sekupheleni kwee-1920, i-USSR yayivuliwe, emva koko yavalwa. Emva kwemfazwe, kwakukho "ifestile" encinci, nokuba "ifestile", eya eJamani iminyaka embalwa, emva koko yavala. KuSirayeli, yonke into yayinzima kakhulu. Kodwa, ngokuqhelekileyo, iintlanganiso [zeenkokeli zaseSoviet] noomongameli baseMerika zakhokelela ekubeni “ifestile” ivulelwe uSirayeli, hayi, hayi, namashumi amathathu amawaka [asekhohlo]. Ngeminyaka yee-1980, xa kwaqalisa intlekele yase-Afghan, ukufuduka [kusuka e-USSR] kwaphela.

UMikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev, osoloko egxekwa, akavulanga ifestile, kodwa ngokwenene ifestile. Umthetho weSoviet uye wanyaniseka ngakumbi - ubuncinci [ukuze kumke] abantu abathile. Ukususela ngo-1987, ukuphuma kwaqala. Ekuqaleni, ifestile yayivulekele abafuduki bobuhlanga - amaYuda, amaJamani, amaGrike, amaHungary, ama-Armenia. Ekuqaleni, ukuphuma kwakuncinci, kodwa ke kwaqala ukwanda ngokukhawuleza.

Ingxaki yeminyaka yee-1990, ewe, yaqala ukutyhalela ngaphandle abantu. Kwabangaphezu kwezigidi ezithathu [abafuduki], abangaphezu kwesiqingatha babesele ekupheleni kweminyaka yee-1980-1990. Phantse i-95% - ukuya eJamani, eUnited States nakwaSirayeli. Kwinxalenye ebalulekileyo yabantu abaye bahamba eJamani nakwaSirayeli, umjelo wokufuduka wawukubuyisela. EUnited States, ijelo eliphambili ngelo xesha yayiziimbacu.

Kwandula ke kwabakho utshintsho, yaye ezi zixhobo zokubuyiswa zancitshiswa [ekubeni uninzi lwabameli belizwe elincinane bemka]. EJamani, baqalisa ukunciphisa ukuthontelana kwabantu ababuyela kwilizwe labo. Ukuba ekuqaleni kweminyaka yee-1990 ama-75% [abo bangena besuka eRashiya] yayingamaJamani, phakathi kwiminyaka yee-1990 kuphela ama-25% kubo ayengamaJamani. Kwaye abanye - amalungu eentsapho zabo - babengamaRashiya, amaKazakh, nabani na, kodwa kungekhona amaJamani. Ngokwemvelo, [oku kunokukhokelela] kwiingxaki zokudityaniswa, kunye nolwimi - kunye nezithintelo zaqala ukuqaliswa [kwabanqwenela ukuhamba], ngokukodwa ngolwimi lwesiJamani. Ayinguye wonke umntu owayenokuyidlulisa: emva koko, isiJamani ayisosiNgesi.

Ngeminyaka yee-1990, obona bunzima bokuhamba, ndicinga ukuba, yayikukuma emgceni kumzi wozakuzo. Kwakusekho ama-consulates ambalwa, kwakuyimfuneko ukuma ixesha elide kakhulu - kungekhona usuku okanye ezimbini, kodwa iveki okanye ezimbini. Kodwa amazwe ayevuleleke ngokwaneleyo [ukwamkela abantu abasuka kwindawo eyayisakuba yi-USSR]. Wonke umntu wayesazi ukuba kwakukho ukuhamba kwabantu abaninzi abafanelekileyo abavela eSoviet Union. Kwakukho iindidi ezininzi ngenene zeenkqubo, izibonelelo-zabafundi, izazinzulu.

Kwaye ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-2000, onke la malungelo avalwa. Ilizwe [iRashiya] laba leledemokhrasi [xa lithelekiswa neUSSR], yaye, masithi, imeko yembacu kwakufuneka ingqinwe ngokunzulu, ukuze ikhuphisane nabanye ababefuna ukuyishiya. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuhamba kunciphile, iinkqubo zokukhetha zivele. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ezi nkqubo zokukhetha, enyanisweni, zaqala ukubumba ukuhamba kwabafuduki: ngubani oshiya, kutheni kwaye phi.

Sigqibele ngantoni? Uzuze isitishi "izalamane". Ngoku i-40-50% yabafuduki abavela eRashiya bahamba ngejelo lokuhlanganiswa kwentsapho, oko kukuthi, ukufudukela kwizihlobo.

Olunye udidi ziingcali eziqeqeshwe kakhulu: izazinzulu, iinjineli, abadwelisi benkqubo, iimbaleki, abadanisi be-ballet, njalo njalo. Ngeminyaka yee-1990, abantu abadumileyo bahamba [eRashiya], kwi-2000 kunye ne-2010, njengomthetho, abantu abancinci abanetalente. Olunye, lwesithathu, udidi ngabantu abazizityebi. Umzekelo, Speyin yaba lelinye lamazwe okuqala eYurophu ukuvumela ukuthengiswa komhlaba kubantu basemzini. Sinoluntu olukhulu apho.

Yintoni ebizwa ngokuba liza lokufuduka? Ngawaphi amaza okufuduka avela eRashiya ahlukileyo?

UDenisenko: Khawucinge ngegrafu apho i-axis ephantsi, i-abscissa, ixesha. Thina [eRashiya] sinezibalo zokufuduka kwi-1828, ngoku i-2022. Kwaye kule tshathi sicwangcisa inani labafuduki. Xa inani linyuka, uhlobo lwamaza lwenziwa. Eneneni, le yinto esiyibiza ngokuba ngamaza. Amaza ayinto ebalulekileyo ehlala ngaphezu konyaka omnye.

Ngokwenene saba nokunyuka okunjalo okuliqela. I-wave yokuqala - ekupheleni kwe-1890 - ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane. Oku kukufuduka kwamaYuda-ePoland, ngoko ke akusoloko kuchongwa njengamaza. Kodwa yayiliza elinamandla, elona likhulu [umfuduko kwimbali yelizwe], salwa namaTaliyane kwindawo yokuqala kwinani labafuduki abafudukela eUnited States. Emva koko eli litye laqala ukukhuthazwa ngabafuduki baseRashiya naseUkraine. IMfazwe Yehlabathi I yakuphelisa konke oku.

I-wave yesibini ngokulandelelana kweziganeko kunye neyokuqala, ukuba sithatha ixesha leSoviet, kukufuduka kwabamhlophe. Emva koko umkhosi kunye nokufuduka emva kwemfazwe kwi-1940-1950s. Ukufuduka kwexesha le-1960-1980 ngamanye amaxesha kuthiwa ngamaza, nangona oku kungachanekanga. [Kwitshathi] ngumgca othe tye, kodwa amaxesha ngamaxesha kubakho ukugqabhuka, izigaba. Kodwa ngeminyaka yee-1990 yayiliza.

- Kwaye kwenzeka ntoni ukufuduka eRashiya kwiminyaka engama-20 edlulileyo?

Denisenko: Ngaba bekukho izigaba? Ngumbuzo olungileyo, kodwa kunzima kum ukuwuphendula, kuba andiboni zigaba ezicacileyo [ngeli xesha].

- Ngokweemvakalelo zam, abaninzi bezopolitiko, abagqugquzeli kunye neentatheli baqala ukushiya ilizwe ngo-2021. Zithini izibalo malunga nale nto?

UDenisenko: Ndiza kukuphoxa, kodwa izibalo aziyiboni le nto. Kodwa usenokungaboni ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukeneyo.

Izibalo, ngokuchaseneyo, zibona ukunciphisa ukuhamba - kungekhona kuphela eRashiya. Ewe kunjalo, i-covid, amanyathelo athintelayo athathiwe [kwintshukumo phakathi kwamazwe]. Umzekelo, izibalo zaseMelika - iUnited States ithatha enye yeendawo ezintathu eziphezulu kwicala lokufuduka eRussia - ngo-2020 ibonisa isiqingatha senani lamangenelo. Ngaphandle kwabo bahamba ngee-visa zomsebenzi. Ukuba sithatha abamkeli bamakhadi aluhlaza, ngoko ke kukho nokuba mbalwa kwabo. Inyaniso kukuba ufake isicelo sekhadi eliluhlaza unyaka okanye emibini [phambi kokuba uhambe]. Imeko iyafana naseYurophu: ukunciphisa kwenzeka phantse kuyo yonke indawo, ngaphandle kodidi olulodwa - abo baya emsebenzini.

- Uthe izibalo aziboni ukwanda kokuhamba kweRashiya ngo-2021. Njengoko ndiyazi, abaninzi bashiya iGeorgia efanayo, apho umntu unokuhlala khona unyaka ngaphandle kwe-visa kunye nayiphi na imeko. Ngaba abantu abanjalo abanakungena nje kumanani?

UDenisenko: Ewe, kanye. Unokuya kwelinye ilizwe ixesha elithile, umzekelo, kwisibonelelo, kwaye ungabi phakathi kwabemi abasisigxina. Apha kwakhona kukho ingxaki yenkcazo. Umntu uzigqala njengomphambukeli, kodwa ilizwe alimthabathi njengomphambukeli. Olunye udidi ngabantu abanamapasi amabini. Bafika eRashiya, ngoko into ayizange ibenzele nto, babuyela emva. Azifakwanga nakwizibalo.

Emva kweBolotnaya Square, abaninzi bathi bavakalelwa kukuba wonke umntu uhambile. Kwaye kwakunjalo, mhlawumbi, abo bahambayo babe nethuba - imvume yokuhlala okanye enye into kwelinye ilizwe. Emva koko, ngendlela, kwakukho utyando oluncinci, kodwa ngokoqobo unyaka.

• Khumbula ukukhala uPutin? Kwaye iindibano zabantu abalikhulu lamawaka kwiqabaka ye-20-degree? Kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, izitrato zaseMoscow zaba yindawo yomzabalazo wokwenene wezopolitiko (kunzima ukukholelwa ngoku). Kwaba njalo

- Ngaba ukuhamba kwabantu abavela eRashiya emva kwe-24 kaFebruwari kunokubizwa ngokuba ngamaza?

UFlorinskaya: Mhlawumbi, ukuba uninzi lwaba bantu alubuyi. Kuba baninzi abashiye ukulinda ixesha lokoyika. Sekunjalo, uninzi lwabo lwemka ukuze lusebenze kude. Kuya kwenzeka njani oku? Ndicinga ukuba kungekudala ayizukwenzeka kakhulu. Kufuneka ubukele.

Ngokwenani [labo bahambileyo], ewe, oku kuninzi ngenyanga. [Inqanaba lokufuduka ukusuka eRashiya kwiminyaka yee-1990] alikafikelelwa, kodwa ukuba unyaka uyaqhubeka njengoko wawuqalile, ngoko siya kungena ngokugqibeleleyo kwaye, mhlawumbi, sigqithe iminyaka ethile yee-1990s. Kodwa kuphela ukuba ukuhamba kuya kwenzeka ngesantya esifana naso ngoku - kwaye, xa sithetha inyani, andiqinisekanga malunga noku. Kuba nje, ukongeza kumnqweno kunye nezinto ezityhalayo, kukho neemeko zamazwe abambeleyo. Kubonakala kum ukuba ngoku baye banzima kakhulu kumntu wonke.

Nangona singathethi malunga nokulumkisa abantu abanepasipoti yaseRashiya, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo, kunzima ukuhamba: iindiza azihambi, akunakwenzeka ukufumana ii-visa kumazwe amaninzi. Kwangaxeshanye, kukho ubunzima bokufumana izibonelelo, ukungakwazi ukufumana i-scholarship yemfundo. Ngapha koko, uninzi lwabo lwafunda ngenkxaso yemali yokufunda. Ngoku la mathuba ayacutheka, kuba iimali ezininzi zokufunda ziya kuphinda zisasaze [imali] kwiimbacu zaseUkraine. Oku kusengqiqweni.

Ngubani oshiya iRashiya. Kwaye ngubani ozayo

- Ukufuduka kunokuthi kwenzeke ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukeneyo - umzekelo, ezoqoqosho, ezopolitiko, ezomntu. Kweyiphi imeko sithetha ngokufuduka ngenkani?

UDenisenko: Ukufuduka okunyanzeliswayo kuxa wena, siya kuthi, ugxothwe ngaphandle kwelizwe. Imfazwe iqalile - abantu banyanzelekile ukuba bahambe. Intlekele yendalo - eChernobyl, izikhukhula, imbalela - ikwangumzekelo wokufuduka ngenkani. Ucalucalulo. Enye indlela okanye enye, yonke le nto idibene nombono othi "imbacu".

Kukho iindlela ezicacileyo zokuchonga ababaleki kunye nabafuna indawo yokukhosela. Ukuba uthatha izibalo, i-contingent evela eRashiya ayincinci. Ngokuqhelekileyo, abantu abavela kuMntla weCaucasus, i-diaspora yaseChechen, kunye nabancinci ngokwesini bawela kuyo.

- Ngaba ukufuduka kwabantu abaninzi eRashiya ngoku kukufuduka ngenkani?

Florinskaya: Ewe kunjalo. Nangona phakathi kwabo bahambayo, kukho abantu abaceba ukufuduka, kodwa kwixesha elizayo, kwiimeko ezolileyo. Kwakhona kwanyanzeleka ukuba basabe, kuba besoyika ukuba ilizwe liza kuvala, ukuba baza kubhengeza ukuhlanganisana, njalo njalo.

Xa sithetha ngokufuduka ngenkani, akukho xesha lezizathu. Abantu bacinga nje ukuba basindisa ubomi babo. Ngokuthe ngcembe, xa ingozi ethe ngqo idlulile, kubonakala ukuba uninzi lwabo lwemka ngenxa yezizathu zoqoqosho kwaye aluyi kubuyela kubo. Ngenxa yokuba bayazi kakuhle into eya kwenzeka kuqoqosho lwaseRashiya, ukuba abayi kukwazi ukusebenza, ukugcina umgangatho wokuphila ababenawo.

Inxalenye ethile - kunye nenxalenye enkulu kakhulu koku kuhamba - ayisayi kubuya ngenxa yezizathu zopolitiko. Kuba abakakulungeli ukuhlala kwibutho labantu abangakhululekanga. Ngaphezu koko, boyika ukutshutshiswa ngokuthe ngqo ngolwaphulo-mthetho.

Ndicinga ukuba abo bathatha isigqibo sokuhamba ngokusisigxina, kunokuba balinde [ngaphandle], abasayi kuphinda bakhethe olona nikezelo lungcono. Baza kuya ubuncinci kwindawo onokuthi uzinze kuyo kwaye ngandlela thile usinde kula maxesha anzima.

- Ukufudukela kwamanye amazwe kuyichaphazela njani iRashiya ngokubhekiselele kuluntu kunye noqoqosho?

UDenisenko (waphendula umbuzo ngaphambi kokuqala kwemfazwe, - malunga noMeduza): Uyazi, ndifuna ukuthetha ngokukhawuleza ukuba ichaphazela kakubi. Sineqela eliphumayo labantu abanezakhono eziphezulu nabafundileyo, esibachonga ngobuchule bomntu. Yintoni ephikisanayo apha? Kukho ingxaki ngaphakathi elizweni – ukungangqinelani kweziqinisekiso neendawo zokusebenza. Umntu uphumelele, umzekelo, kwi-Faculty of Engineering, kwaye usebenza njengomphathi kwivenkile - oku kwakhona, kwinqanaba elithile, ukulahlekelwa kwenkunzi yomntu. Ukuba sithatha ingqalelo kule ngxaki, ngoko ke, mhlawumbi, ezi lahleko zincitshiswe kancinci ngokwemiqulu.

Kwelinye icala, abo bahambayo, banokufikelelwa ukusa kuwuphi umkhamo apha [eRashiya]? Mhlawumbi abanakuziqonda ngokupheleleyo, njengoko besenza phaya [phesheya], kwilizwe lethu. Ukuba abantu, iingcali zihamba kwaye zihlala zinxibelelana nelizwe labo, nokuba kukudluliselwa kwemali, ukunyuka kwezinto ezintsha, njalo njalo, le yinkqubo eqhelekileyo.

UFlorinskaya (ephendula umbuzo emva kokuqala kwemfazwe, - malunga neMeduza): KwiRashiya, kubi. Ukuhamba kwabafuduki abafanelekileyo, oko kukuthi, abantu abanemfundo ephakamileyo, kuya kuba phezulu kulo nyaka kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo.

Kubonakala kufana [ngokungabalulekanga] ngokunxulumene nelizwe lethu elikhulu, nangona kunjalo kunokuchaphazela. Ngenxa yokuba kukho ukuhamba okukhulu kwabemi, abantu beengcali ezahlukeneyo, kodwa ngemfundo ephakamileyo - iintatheli, iingcali ze-IT, izazinzulu, oogqirha, njalo njalo. Oku kunokuba ngumonakalo, kodwa kuselithuba ukuba uthethe ngayo. Kungacingelwa ukuba le iya kuba yenye yezona zinto zimbi zokufuduka ngenkani, nangaphezu kwenani [labantu abamkileyo].

Kolu fuduko, umyinge wabantu abanemfundo ephakamileyo uya kutshintsha kakhulu. Yayisele inkulu kakhulu - 40-50%, ngokuqikelelwa kwam, kodwa iya kuba yi-80-90%.

- Ngubani oza kwindawo yabantu abashiye eRashiya? Ngaba ilahleko iyazaliswa ngeendleko zamanye amacandelo abantu kunye nabafudukayo?

UDenisenko: Kwiminyaka ye-1990 kunye ne-2000, kwakukho ukutshintshwa. Uninzi lwabantu abaqeqeshwe ngokuphezulu beza bevela kwiriphabliki zeManyano. Ngoku akukho kutshintshwa okunjalo. Abantu abaselula bayahamba, amandla alahlekileyo ukuya kwinqanaba elithile. Le yilahleko yokwenyani.

Florinskaya: Ngubani oza kutshintsha? Besiqonda ngeentatheli – [abasemagunyeni] abazidingi. Iingcali ze-IT eziqeqeshwe kakhulu, ndiyacinga, kuya kuba yingxaki ukutshintsha. Xa abaphandi beqala ukuhamba, akukho nto inokwenziwa. Oogqirha abasuka komkhulu abathe bahamba njengesiqhelo baza kutshintshwa ngoogqirha bamaphondo. Kwiindawo zabasebenzi abadla umhlala-phantsi kwiifemu ezinkulu, ndicinga ukuba, baya kutsalwa nakwiingingqi. Ngubani oza kusala kwiingingqi, andazi. Kwaneminyaka eyi-10 eyadlulayo, bathi iMoscow yindawo yokuthutha phakathi kwephondo neLondon. Le yintlekisa, kodwa le yindlela yokufuduka rhoqo: abantu beza kuqala eMoscow, kwaye ukusuka apho baya phambili kumazwe angaphandle.

Uninzi lokufudukela [eRashiya] alunazakhono, ngoko oku akunjalo [xa abafuduki banokuthatha indawo yeengcali ezimkileyo]. Abona banetalente kwaye baphumelele kwi-CIS bakhetha ukungahlali eRashiya, kodwa bahambe baye kwamanye amazwe. Kwakukade kuyimfuneko ukubatsala, kodwa emva koko sanyusa iimpumlo zethu. Kwaye ngoku kutheni kufuneka baye kwilizwe eliphantsi kwesohlwayo, ukuba unokusebenza kwamanye amazwe? Kunzima ukucinga ukuba umntu angaya apha kwezi meko.

KUYA KWENZEKA NTONI KWIMAKEKETHO YABASEBENZI ERUSSIA

• Ngaba sibuyela emva koo-1990? Bangaphi abantu abaza kuphelelwa ngumsebenzi kungekudala? Ewe, ubuncinci imivuzo iya kuhlawulwa? Okanye akunjalo? .. Uphendula umphandi wemarike yabasebenzi uVladimir Gimpelson

- Ngaba sele kukho utshintsho olubonakalayo ngokumalunga nabafuduki abasebenza eRashiya kude kube kutshanje? Ngaba bayaqhubeka nokusebenza okanye nabo bayahamba?

UFlorinskaya: Akukho tshintsho ekuqaleni kukaMatshi. Siqalise uphando oluncinci lokulinga, sifumene idatha. Inxalenye ethile ithi ewe, kuyimfuneko ukuyishiya [eRashiya], kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku bambalwa kakhulu. Abanye bathi: “Sinento embi ngakumbi.”

Ndicinga ukuba ukungena [kwabasebenzi abafudukela eRussia] kuya kuba ngaphantsi kunangaphambili kwe-covid. Kwaye ngenxa yokuba ithuba lokuza lalinzima kwakhona: amatikiti abiza imali eninzi, kukho iinqwelomoya ezimbalwa. Kodwa aba balapha baya kulinda ukuba bahambe. Mhlawumbi ngehlobo kuya kuba kubi kakhulu apha ukuba imisebenzi iya kunqunyulwa, kwaye oku kuya kubetha abafuduki. Kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku oku akwenzeki.

- Ngokubanzi, ilizwe kufuneka lixhalabe malunga nokufuduka? Ingakanani ingqalelo ekufuneka abasemagunyeni bayinike? Uzama ukuthintela?

UDenisenko: Ngokwemvelo, ingqalelo kufuneka ihlawulwe ekufudukeni. Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba ukufuduka kuyindlela eyomeleleyo yentlalo kunye nezoqoqosho. Kukho intetho ethi: "Abantu bavota ngeenyawo zabo." Yinyani kuwo onke amazwe. Ukuba ukuhamba [kokufuduka] kuyanda, kuthetha ukuba kukho into engalunganga kurhulumente. Xa izazinzulu zihamba, oko kuthetha ukuba kukho into engalunganga kwintlangano yenzululwazi. Oogqirha bayahamba - kukho into engalunganga kumbutho wezempilo. Abafundi abaphumeleleyo bayahamba - into efanayo. Masihambeni basebenzi bombane – kukho undonakele apha. Oku kufuneka kuhlalutywe kwaye kuthathelwe ingqalelo.

Umgaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kufuneka uvulekele kwabo bahambayo. Makungabikho zithintelo okanye imiqobo. Lo mkhuba ungendawo awukhokeleli kuyo nayiphi na into elungileyo. Thatha iSoviet Union efanayo. Kwakukho abachasi - uNureyev, uBaryshnikov kunye nokunye. Ezi zilahleko ezingenakulungiseka: asizange sibone uBaryshnikov kwinqanaba, asizange sibone iNureyev, kodwa babeza kuza ukuba yonke into yayiqhelekile.

Indlela abafuduki abahlala ngayo nesizathu sokuba ngamanye amaxesha babuyele kwilizwe labo

Ngaba ufunda ngabantu abaye bahamba? Kukangaphi abo bayemkayo bekwazi ukufana baze baqalise ukunxulumana nelizwe elitsha?

UDenisenko (waphendula umbuzo ngaphambi kokuqala kwemfazwe, - malunga noMeduza): Ndiyakwazi ukuvakalisa izimvo zoogxa bam. U-Andrey Korobkov, unjingalwazi kwiDyunivesithi yaseTennessee, uthetha ngomxholo wesiRashiya-Amerika ingakumbi abo [baseRashiya] bahlala apho [e-US]. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthambekela kokufana kunamandla kakhulu. Ukuba amaGrike ahlanganiswe ngenkolo, amaJamani ngexesha elidlulileyo lembali, ngoko ke bethu, abashiya kwi-1990 kunye ne-2000s, bazama ukudibanisa kunye nokuchitha kangangoko kunokwenzeka. Ngaba uyazi ukuba yayiyintoni? Ekunciphiseni unxibelelwano nabantu bakuthi. Yayiyenye yezalathi. Njengangoku? Kum kubonakala ngathi lo mkhwa usaqhubeka.

Emazweni aseYurophu, umzekelo eJamani, imeko iyahluka: kukho izithethi ezininzi zesiRashiya apho. Ezi ayizizo iingcali eziqeqeshwe kakhulu - kanye - kodwa abantu ababesakuba ngabahlali, amaJamani aseRashiya ahlonipha izithethe. Abaninzi bahlala benxibelelana.

Okwesibini, umgama nawo udlala indima enkulu apha: iJamani ikufuphi neRashiya. Abaninzi bagcina ubudlelwane obusondeleyo kunye nelizwe, ngoko ukulinganisa kuhamba kancinci. Kukwakho nezona nkcukacha zelizwe: iJamani incinci [kune-US], kukho iingingqi zokuhlala ezixineneyo, kukho amadoda amaninzi ayesakuba ngumkhosi waseSoviet ashiyekileyo.

EFransi nase-Italiya, ingxaki yokulinganisa yenziwa ngokwahlukileyo. Sinemifuduko yaseNtaliyane - i-80% yabasetyhini. IsiFrentshi - 70%. Baninzi abafudukayo “abatshatileyo,” oko kukuthi, abo batshatayo.

IBrithani enkulu, kubonakala kum, ilandela indlela efanayo ne-States: emva koko, abantu bazama ubuncinane ukwenza abantwana babo "isiNgesi". Abafuduki ngokwabo abaphuli unxibelelwano kunye nelizwe, kunzima kubo ukwenza oku: abaninzi babo basenamashishini, i-real estate, abahlobo baseRashiya. Kodwa abantwana babo abanamdla kwaphela kwilizwe labo, yaye ukuba banomdla, ngoko libuthathaka.

-Ngokokubona kwam, abaninzi kwabo bashiya iRashiya ukusuka kwi-2020 ukuya kwi-2021 benqaba ngokusemthethweni ukuzibiza ngokuba ngabafuduki, nangona befaneleka le nkcazo. Ixhaphake kangakanani le nto?

UDenisenko: Umntu ofudukayo ngumfuduki, umntu ushiye indawo yokuhlala esisigxina (indawo yokuhlala esisigxina, - malunga neMeduza), ngokuthetha. U-Vladimir Ilyich Lenin akazange acinge ukuba ungumfuduki, nangona wayejikeleza eYurophu ixesha elide - kodwa wayenethemba lokubuya. Apha, ngokucacileyo, bafuna ukugxininisa ukuba phantsi kweemeko ezitshintshileyo baya kubuyela kwilizwe.

Kum kubonakala ngathi le ngcaciso yodwa apha: bagcina ubuni babo ngelixa bephesheya, bangazami ukufiphaza okanye bafihle nangayiphi na indlela, kodwa bagxininise: "NdingumRashiya / isiUkrainian / isiGeorgia, ngokuqinisekileyo ndiya kubuyela kwilizwe lam. , mhlawumbi kwiminyaka engama-20 kamva, kodwa sekunjalo.”

Kufana nexesha labo kunye neepasipoti zaseNansen. Uninzi lwamazwe apho ukufuduka kwabamhlophe kwakuvunyelwe ukuba bamkele ubumi babo. Kodwa [abanye] basala neencwadana zokundwendwela zaseNansen. Babengazigqali njengabaphambukeli kubamhlophe yaye babenethemba lokuba baza kubuya.

- Uninzi lwaba bahambileyo bafumana oko bakufunayo? Ngaba kukho naziphi na izifundo kwinqanaba lolonwabo phakathi kwabo baye bashiya?

UDenisenko: Uphando lwenqanaba lolonwabo lwenziwa. Kodwa ndinganika ezinye iiparamitha njengenqanaba lolonwabo.

I-Israel lilizwe elihle lokufunda iziphumo zokufuduka kuthi. Kuba kwaSirayeli izibalo zabafuduki abavela eSoviet Union zigcinwa ngokwahlukeneyo. Sibona ntoni kwezi zibalo? Ukusukela ngeminyaka yoo-1990s, amaYuda afudukele kwaSirayeli aqalisile ukuphila ixesha elide. Oko kukuthi, ubomi bawo buphakame kakhulu kunolwamaYuda alapha [eRashiya]. Baye banyusa izinga labo lokuzalwa. Kwaye kwiSoviet Union naseRashiya, amaYuda aliqela elinezinga eliphantsi lokuzalwa.

Akukho zibalo ezinjalo kwi-States, kodwa kukho ezinye izibalo - umzekelo, iziganeko ezifanayo kubantu abadala. Andinakuze ndilibale xa ndandimi emgceni ndikhangela amatikiti okuya kwiMetropolitan Opera eNew York, kwakumi amabhinqa amabini emva kwam. Babethetha isiRashiya, ibe nathi siye sabazi. Aba bafazi basuka eLeningrad. Ngaxa lithile balila. Ngaba uyasazi isizathu? Bathi: “Uyazi, asikhululekanga. Sithuthele apha kwaye sonwabile apha. Siphathwa, sifumana isibonelelo esikhulu, sinokuya kwi-Metropolitan, kodwa abahlobo bethu kunye noogxa bethu abahlala eLeningrad banqatshelwe konke oku. Abanye babo sele bebhubhile ngoku silapha nangona bengoontanga bethu.”

Ezo zalathi zityhila kakhulu. Umsebenzi, umvuzo, imfundo, ingqesho nazo zizalathisi. Siyabona ukuba e-States naseKhanada, amaRashiya ekugqibeleni ahlala kwizikhundla ezilungileyo. IYurophu iyafana.

— Ukufuduka kwakhona kwenzeka kangaphi? Abantu badla ngokubuya nini yaye kutheni?

UFlorinskaya: Ukufuduka kwakhona kwenzeka, kodwa kunzima kangakanani ukuqikelela ubungakanani. Okukhona ushishino lwamazwe ngamazwe luphuhliswa kweli lizwe, kokukhona kukho iinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe, apho abo bafumene imfundo yaseNtshona babeyifuna ngamandla, kokukhona [iingcali eziselula] zibuyayo. Okukhona uphando lwamazwe ngamazwe, iilebhu ezikwinqanaba lamazwe ngamazwe, kokukhona abaphandi bebuyayo.

Yakuba iwile yonke, akukho ndawo unokubuyela kuyo. Ngaphezu koko, inqanaba elithile lemivuzo likwabalulekile.

Ngaba uninzi lwala maza luza kubuya?

UFlorinskaya: Abantu ababotshelelwe kwimarike yabasebenzi baseRashiya, abangenakukwazi ukufumana umsebenzi [ngaphandle], baya kubuya ngenxa nje yokuba “badle” oovimba, yaye akusayi kubakho wumbi umsebenzi wabo. Ayinguye wonke umntu ozokwazi ukusebenzela kude eRashiya. Ndiyazi abanye abantu abasebenzela iinkampani zaseRussia abasele benyanzelekile ukuba babuye. Kukho iinkampani eziye zavala ukusebenza kwiiseva zangaphandle. Kukho abafundi abangavumelekanga ukuba bathathe iiseshini kwi-intanethi. Ngoko ke, nokuba i-150 lamawaka ihambile, oku akuthethi ukuba abanye babo abazange babuyele.

Kwakhona, oku akuthethi ukuba abantu ngoku, xa bebona yonke le meko, abalungiseleli ukuhamba kwabo, kodwa kungekhona kwiimeko ezinjalo eziphazamisayo. Ukuba ngaphambili, ngaphambi kwexesha le-COVID-19, i-100-120 lamawaka abantu bayishiya iRussia ngonyaka, ngoku, kunokwenzeka ukuba amanani aya kufikelela kuma-250 amawaka okanye ama-300 amawaka. Kuya kuxhomekeka kwisakhono sokuwela umda, inani leenqwelomoya kunye nokukwazi ukubamba kwindawo ethile kwamanye amazwe.

[Ngaphambi] abantu basixelela oku kudliwano-ndlebe olunzulu: “Ukuba ndinyanzelekile, ndifune umsebenzi, andithi mandingabuyiswa.” Kodwa njengoko inkululeko yezoqoqosho nezopolitiko inyamalala elizweni, isangqa sabo banokubuya sinokuncipha. Ngoku sele inciphe ngakumbi.

Ifoto: Ukufuduka eCrimea. 1920

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