“Ulwimi olubandayo” sisiqithi esipholileyo kuLwandlekazi lwePasifiki kunxweme lwase-Ecuador. Ekuphela kwendawo yokuphola kweelwandle zehlabathi, yimfihlakalo yokwenyani enokuthi idlale indima eqinisekileyo kutshintsho lwemozulu.
Iilwandle ziyafudumala ngenxa ye mozulu utshintsho: yiloo nto izazinzulu bezisixelela iminyaka. Ngelixa uLwandle lweMeditera kunye neNorth Atlantic ziseta iirekhodi ezipheleleyo zokufudumala, i-anomaly iyaqhubeka: indawo yoLwandlekazi lwePasifiki apho, ngokuchasene nayo yonke ingqiqo, iyaphola. Kwaye sele iyiminyaka engamashumi amathathu edlulileyo. Imfihlakalo yokwenyani, ede yachazwa “njengowona mbuzo ubalulekileyo ongaphendulwanga kwicandelo lemozulu” yingcali yeYunivesithi yaseColorado uPedro DiNezio, kudliwano-ndlebe naye lijelo leendaba. Scientist New, enikela inqaku “kulwimi olubandayo” lwePasifiki.
Eyokugqibela, eyabhaqwa ngeminyaka yee-1990 kwaye yanda ngaphezu kweekhilomitha ezingamawaka aliqela. Kangangexesha elide, kwakunxulunyaniswa nokuguquguquka okugqithisileyo kwendalo kulo mmandla: lolona lwandle lukhulu nolona lunzulu kakhulu emhlabeni, olusoloko lupholile kakhulu (5 ukuya ku-6°C) kwicala elingaseMpuma, nokuba lunxweme olusentshona. AseMelika kwicala laseAsia, kunakwicala laseNtshona. Kodwa ezinye izazinzulu, ezinjengoRichard Seager weYunivesithi yaseColumbia eNew York, ziye zabonisa ukuba oku kuphola ngokuthe ngcembe kwakungeyonto yendalo, kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba kungenxa yezinye, ezingekaziwa, iziganeko ezinxulumene 'nomsebenzi womntu. Ingxaki nantsi: olu lwimi lubandayo luyancipha (0.5 ° C kwiminyaka engama-40) kwaye asazi ukuba kutheni, nangona sineminyaka engama-30 siyibona. Ngaphandle kokuba le nto inokuba nemiphumo emibi, leyo imodeli yemozulu yangoku ayithatheli ngqalelo, njengoko kuchazwe ngamajelo enzululwazi.
Ingxaki kukuba ukungazi ukuba kutheni oku kupholisa kusenzeka kuthetha ukuba nathi asazi ukuba iya kuyeka nini na, okanye isuke ngequbuliso ijike ibe shushu. Oku kuneempembelelo zehlabathi. Ikamva lolwimi olubandayo linokugqiba ukuba iCalifornia ibanjwe yimbalela esisigxina okanye i-Australia yimililo yasendle ehlala ifa. Iphembelela ubunzulu bexesha lemonsoon eIndiya kunye namathuba endlala kwiHorn ye-Afrika. Isenokude iguqule ubungakanani botshintsho lwemozulu kwihlabathi liphela ngokutshintsha indlela obuthathaka ngayo umoya ojikeleze umhlaba ekunyukeni kokukhutshwa kwegesi yegreenhouse.
Ngenxa yako konke oku, ayimangalisi into yokuba izazinzulu zemozulu zizama ukufumanisa ukuba kuqhubeka ntoni ngokungxamisekileyo.
IPacific, inkulu kunezo zonke iindawo zomhlaba
Ulwandlekazi lwePasifiki luhlala lungaqondakali, lolona lwandle lukhulu kwaye lunzulu kakhulu emhlabeni – lukhulu kangangokuba lugubungela indawo enkulu kunomhlaba wonke udityanisiwe. Iinguqulelo ezinkulu zendalo zemozulu yePasifiki ekweleenjiko zinempembelelo kwimozulu yehlabathi lonke, ukwazi ukuba iya kusabela njani kukwanda kokukhutshwa kweegesi zegreenhouse emoyeni kulucelomngeni olukhulu.
Phantse yonke iminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemihlanu, iPasifiki isuka kwisiqendu saseLa Niña, esinamaqondo obushushu apholileyo kumphezulu wamanzi kwi-equatorial zone, ukuya kwisiqendu se-El Niño, apho la manzi afudumala ngaphezu kwesiqhelo. Lo mjikelo, obizwa ngokuba yi-El Niño Southern Oscillation, okanye i-ENSO, ibangelwa utshintsho kwiipateni zomoya wolwandle kunye nokuhamba kwamanzi ukusuka kumgangatho obandayo wolwandle ukuya kwindawo efudumeleyo.
Kuyo yongezwa i-Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), inguqu kwiqondo lokushisa phezu kolwandle kwithuba le-20 ukuya kwi-30 iminyaka, imvelaphi echanekileyo ehlala ingaziwa, kwaye iziphumo zayo zifana nezo ze-ENSO.
Indlela ebangela iPDO. ayikaqondwa kakuhle. Kuye kwacetyiswa ukuba umaleko ongentla obhityileyo ofudumala ehlotyeni phezu kolwandle ukhusela amanzi abandayo kubunzulu yaye kuthatha iminyaka ukunyuka.
Imiphumo yezigaba ezibandayo kunye nokufudumala zichongwa kwimozulu yaseMntla Melika. Phakathi kowe-1900 nowe-1925, ngexesha lengqele, amaqondo obushushu onyaka ayephantsi ngokwentelekiso. Ngexesha leminyaka engamashumi amathathu elandelayo kunye nesigaba esifudumeleyo, amaqondo obushushu ayengaphantsi. Umjikelo waqinisekiswa qho emva koko
Olu tshintsho lunzima ekubalweni kweentsingiselo zexesha elide. Yiyo loo nto, xa bebhaqa le nto "yolwimi olubandayo" ngeminyaka yee-1990, abaphandi bathi ubukho bayo bube bubaguquguqukayo (kodwa bendalo) bommandla.
