Ngeke baphinde babuye? Ingabe lokhu kungabhekwa njengelinye igagasi lokuthuthela kwelinye izwe? Abadwebi bezibalo zabantu uMikhail Denisenko noYulia Florinskaya bayachaza ngesayithi https://meduza.io/.
Ngemva kuka-February 24, lapho iRussia iqala impi egcwele e-Ukraine, abantu abaningi baseRussia banquma ukulishiya izwe. Kwabanye, lesi yisixazululo sesikhashana. Abanye bayaqaphela ukuthi bangase bangaphinde babuyele ezweni. Mayelana nokuthi bangaki abantu abashiye iRussia, yimuphi kubo ongabhekwa njengabafuduki ngokusemthethweni, nokuthi konke lokhu kuzothinta kanjani izwe esikhathini esizayo, uMeduza wakhuluma noMikhail Denisenko, umqondisi we-HSE Institute of Demography, noYulia Florinskaya, umcwaningi oholayo. e-RANEPA Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting.
Ingxoxo noMikhail Denisenko yenzeka ngaphambi kokuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine, noYulia Florinskaya ngemuva kokuqala kwempi.
- Ungakwazi yini ukulinganisa ukuthi bangaki abantu abasuka eRussia ngemva kukaFebhuwari 24?
U-Julia Florinskaya: Anginazo izilinganiso - azinembile noma azinembile. Kungaphezulu kokulandelana kwezinombolo. I-oda lami lezinombolo limayelana nabantu abayizinkulungwane eziyi-150.
Kungani ngisho kanjalo? Zonke zisekelwe cishe kwizibalo ezifanayo eziqanjwe ngamagama. Inani labasuka eRussia baya eGeorgia ngesonto lokuqala [lempi] lalingu-25,000 30. Kwakukhona isibalo sabayizinkulungwane ezingama-50-15 abahambe baya e-Armenia [kusukela ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari kuya ekuqaleni kuka-April]. Cishe izinkulungwane eziyi-100,000, ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva, yangena kwa-Israyeli. Ngokusekelwe kulezi zibalo - njengoba umbuthano wamazwe lapho abantu abashiye khona mncane - ngicabanga ukuthi emasontweni amabili okuqala kwakukhona abantu abangu-150 abahambile. Mhlawumbe ekupheleni kuka-March – ekuqaleni kuka-April, XNUMX ayizinkulungwane, kuhlanganise nalabo kakade phesheya [ngesikhathi ukuhlasela kuqala] futhi abazange babuye.
Manje bazama ukulinganisa ezinye izigidi, 500, 300 izinkulungwane. Angicabangi kulezo zigaba – futhi indlela lezi zilinganiso ezenziwa ngayo ibonakala ingabaza kimi. Isibonelo, inhlolovo eyenziwe [iphrojekthi yamaRussia OK] uMitya Aleshkovsky: bavele bathatha lezi zinombolo - izinkulungwane ezingu-25 zaya eGeorgia ngesonto lokuqala - futhi zanquma ukuthi ngesonto lesibili kwakukhona nezinkulungwane ezingu-25. Futhi njengoba u-15% walabo okwaxoxwa nabo babevela eGeorgia, babala bathi: kusho ukuthi i-300,000 ihambile [eRussia].
Kodwa lokhu akwenziwa, ngoba uma une 25 ayizinkulungwane ngesonto lokuqala, akekho owathi kuyoba okufanayo kwesibili. Okwesibili, uma i-15% evela eGeorgia ikuphendule, lokhu akusho ukuthi kukhona ngempela i-15% yabo bonke abashiya eRussia ngalesi sikhathi. Konke lokhu kubhalwe ngemfoloko emanzini.
- Ngolunye usuku, idatha ivele kuwebhusayithi yezibalo zombuso ekuweleni komngcele ngamaRussia ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2022. Ingabe abanikezi umbono wenombolo yalabo abahambile?
UFlorinskaya: Le datha ayibonisi lutho. Lokhu kuvele kushiye izwe (ngaphandle kwedatha ngenani lalabo abangena eRussia emuva - cishe. Meduza) - kanye nekota, okungukuthi, kuhlanganise namaholide oNyaka Omusha.
Isibonelo, bangu-20,000 abantu abengeziwe abahambe baya e-Armenia kunango-2020 (ngaphambi kwe-COVID [eRussia]), noma abangu-30,000 ngaphezu kwango-2019. ETurkey - eqinisweni, inani elifanayo nelika-2019. Kodwa ngo-2021, kwakunabanye abangu-100,000 [ abaya khona], njengoba wonke amanye amazwe ayevaliwe.
Sebebonke, abantu abayizigidi ezi-3.9 bashiye iRussia engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, abayizigidi ezingu-8.4 ngo-2019, kanye nezigidi ezingu-7.6 ngo-2020. Kuphela ngo-2021, ekuphakameni kwe-covid, babembalwa - abayizigidi ezingu-2.7. Kodwa lokhu kunengqondo.
- Futhi izovela nini idatha eqondile kulabo abahambile?
UFlorinskaya: Mhlawumbe kusazoba khona izilinganiso ezithile, njengoba iGeorgia inikeze ngokuwela umngcele wayo (ngokwesibonelo, ekupheleni kuka-March, uMnyango Wezangaphakathi waseGeorgia ubike ukuthi izakhamuzi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-35 zeRussian Federation zingene ezweni ngenyanga, i-20.7 izinkulungwane ezisele; azibikwanga). Kodwa izibalo ezisemthethweni ngeke zivele kulo nyaka.
Futhi, lokhu ukuwela umngcele. Lokhu akusho ukuthi abantu basala. Phakathi kwalabo abangena eGeorgia, kukhona abafika kuqala e-Armenia noma, isibonelo, eTurkey.
- Ngokwezilinganiso ze-UN, kusukela ngo-2021, abantu abavela eRussia ababalelwa ezigidini eziyi-11 babehlala phesheya - lesi sibalo sesithathu emhlabeni ngemuva kweNdiya neMexico. Ilunge kangakanani le datha?
UMikhail Denisenko: Uma sikhuluma nganoma yisiphi isimo senhlalo, izibalo kufanele ziqondwe. Kunezibalo zethu zokufuduka, kukhona abakwamanye amazwe, kunezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe. Uma sisebenzisa izinombolo futhi singazazi izincazelo, lokhu kuholela kuzo zonke izinhlobo zezigameko.
Kuyini ukuhlolwa kwe-UN? Bachazwa kanjani abafuduki bamazwe ngamazwe ngokuvamile? Umfuduki ngumuntu owazalwa kwelinye izwe futhi ehlala kwelinye (ukufuduka okunjalo ngezinye izikhathi kubizwa ngokuthi ukufuduka impilo yonke). Futhi izibalo ze-UN zisekelwe kulokhu - zingabantu abazalelwa eRussia, kodwa bahlala ngaphandle kwayo.
Yini kulezi zibalo engahambisani nami kanye nochwepheshe abaningi? Ukufuduka ukuphila kwakho konke [ngokwe-UN] kuhlanganisa nalabo abasuka eRussia [beya emazweni ahlangene] phakathi nenkathi yamaSoviet. Ngakho-ke, lezi zibalo [mayelana nabafuduki abavela eRussia], kanye nalezo eziphambene (ukuthi abafuduki abayizigidi ezingu-12 bahlala eRussia), kufanele baphathwe ngokucophelela. Ngoba kukhona abantu ngempela… Ngokwesibonelo, angizalelwanga eRussia. Futhi kulezi zibalo, ngiwela esibalweni sabafuduki. Akekho onendaba nokuthi bengihlala eRussia kusukela ngineminyaka eyisithupha ubudala, futhi abazali bami basanda kusebenza phesheya [RF].
Ngakho-ke, isibalo sezigidi ezingu-11 siyingozi. Kwakha umbono wokuthi inqwaba yabantu ifuduke muva nje.
Mina nozakwethu sinencwadi enesihloko esithi “Migrations from the Newly Independent States. Eminyakeni engu-25 kusukela ukuwa kweSoviet Union. Ngokwezilinganiso zethu, kusukela ngasekupheleni kwawo-1980 kuya ku-2017, kunabantu abangaba yizigidi ezintathu abazalelwa eRussia futhi bahlala emazweni akude phesheya. Okusho ukuthi, hhayi izigidi eziyi-11 [njengakudatha ye-UN], kodwa ezintathu. Ngakho-ke, uma usebenzisa izibalo ze-UN, kufanele, uma kungenzeka, ususe ama-republic aseSoviet angaphambili kuwo. Lokho kuzolunga kakhulu. Ngokwesibonelo, abantu abaningi bazalelwa eRussia futhi bathuthela e-Ukraine ngesikhathi sokubusa kwamaSoviet. Noma thatha abantu "abajezisiwe": Abantu baseLatvia nabaseLithuania babuya ekudingisweni nabantwana abazalelwa eRussia.
- Bayitholaphi idatha yokuhlanganisa izibalo zokufuduka?
UDenisenko: Kunemiqondo emibili kwizibalo zokufuduka: ukugeleza kokufuduka nesitoko sokufuduka, okungukuthi ukugeleza nenombolo.
Izibalo ze-UN ziyizinombolo nje. Kubalwa kwabantu, lapho kunombuzo ngendawo yokuzalwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-UN iqoqa idatha evela kuwo wonke amazwe lapho kubalwa khona abantu futhi izenzele ezayo izilinganiso. Emazweni lapho kubalwa khona (lawa amazwe ampofu noma, yithi, iNyakatho Korea), abekho abafuduki futhi. [Ekubalweni kwabantu] kungase kube neminye imibuzo: “Ufike nini ezweni?” kanye nokuthi “Kuvela kuliphi izwe?” Bacwengisa ulwazi mayelana nabafuduki futhi, empeleni, basinika umbono wokugeleza.
Uhlolovo olumele izwe lonke luyenziwa. Ngizovame ukunxusa i-United States, ngoba, ngokombono wami, izibalo zokufuduka zihlelwe kahle lapho. Inhlolovo yomphakathi waseMelika yenziwa lapho njalo ngonyaka - futhi kule datha ngingathola ulwazi, ngithi, mayelana nokuthi bangaki abafuduki abavela eRussia abakhona ezweni.
Ulwazi olugelezayo lungatholwa emithonjeni yokuphatha. Sinayo le nsizakalo yomngcele (inikeza ulwazi mayelana nokuwela umngcele, lapho uya khona futhi ngasiphi isizathu) kanye nenkonzo yokufuduka (iqoqa ulwazi mayelana nalabo abavela, abavela kuliphi izwe, eminyakeni emingaki ubudala).
Kodwa wena ngokwakho uyaqonda ukuthi yiziphi izibalo zokugeleza: umuntu ofanayo angahamba izikhathi eziningana phakathi nonyaka, futhi ulwazi luqoqwe hhayi ngabantu, kodwa mayelana nokunyakaza.
UFlorinskaya: ERussia, [abafuduki] babalwa ngenani lalabo abasuka [phakathi kwezakhamuzi ezihlala unomphela]. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-Rosstat icabangela kuphela labo abasuselwe ukubhaliswa. Futhi kude nabo bonke abantu baseRussia abafudukayo bayasuswa kule rejista. Njengoba nje akubona bonke abashiya izwe abasuka kwamanye amazwe. Ngakho-ke, isinyathelo sokuqala ukuhlonza [kudatha ye-Rosstat] izakhamuzi zaseRussia ezisuselwe ukubhaliswa futhi zihambe ziye emazweni aseNtshonalanga (lapho ukuthuthela kwamanye amazwe kuya khona kakhulu), futhi zibale inombolo yazo. Ngaphambi kwe-covid, bekukhona izinkulungwane eziyi-15-17 zazo ngonyaka.
Kodwa-ke, iningi lihamba ngaphandle kokumemezela ukuhamba kwalo nganoma iyiphi indlela, ngakho-ke kuyisiko ukubala ngokusho kwedatha yamazwe aphethe. Ahluke izikhathi ezimbalwa kudatha ye-Rosstat. Umehluko uncike ngezwe, eminyakeni ethile [idatha yezwe elisingathwayo] yayinkulu ngokuphindwe kathathu, kahlanu ngisho nangu-20 kunemininingwane yakwaRosstat [lapho uya kuleli zwe]. Ngokwesilinganiso, ungaphindaphinda ngezibalo ezinhlanu noma eziyisithupha [i-Rosstat mayelana nabafuduki abayizinkulungwane eziyi-15-17 ngonyaka].
Ngaphambilini eRussia, abafuduki babebhekwa ngendlela ehlukile.
KODWA NJENGOBA?
UDenisenko: Kunesimiso esingcwele ezifundweni zokufuduka ukuthi kungcono ukufunda ukufuduka ngokwezibalo zamazwe nezifunda zokwamukela. Sidinga ubufakazi bokuthi lowo muntu uhambile noma wafika. Ubufakazi bokuthi uhambile ngokuvamile abukho. Uyaqonda: umuntu usuka eMoscow waya e-United States, uthola ikhadi eliluhlaza, futhi eMoscow unendlu, ngisho nomsebenzi. Futhi izibalo [zaseRussia] azikuboni lokhu. Kodwa e-United States (nakwamanye amazwe), udinga ukubhaliswa. Ngakho-ke, izibalo zokwamukela zinembile kakhulu.
Futhi nansi enye inkinga iphakama: ubani ongabizwa ngomfuduki? Ubani owafika? Futhi uma kungenjalo, ubani? E-States, isibonelo, uthole ikhadi eliluhlaza - ungowokufika. Kungokufanayo e-Australia naseCanada. E-Europe, uma uthola imvume yokuhlala isikhathi esithile, okungcono kakhulu (izinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye noma eziyi-12 ezifanayo), unesimo sokuba ngumfuduki.
E-Russia, uhlelo lufana nolwaseYurophu. Sisebenzisa umbandela wesikhashana: uma umuntu eza eRussia izinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye noma ngaphezulu, uwela okuthiwa inani labantu unomphela. Futhi ngokuvamile leli nani [izinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye] lihlotshaniswa nokufuduka, nakuba umuntu engase afike iminyaka emibili bese ebuyela emuva.
UFlorinskaya: Uma sithatha idatha yamarekhodi e-consular emazweni angaphandle okufuduka "kwakudala", khona-ke ekupheleni kuka-2021, izakhamuzi zaseRussia ezingaba yisigidi nesigamu zazibhaliswe namarekhodi e-consular. Njengomthetho, akuwona wonke umuntu othola irejista ye-consular. Kodwa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, akubona bonke abaqoshwayo lapho bebuyela [eRussia].
Ungabheka futhi ukuthi bangaki abantu abaye bazisa [umthetho waseRussia] ngezwe lesibili lokuba yisakhamuzi noma imvume yokuhlala kusukela ngo-2014, lapho yenziwa impoqo. Cishe abantu abayisigidi abavela emazweni okufuduka kwakudala [abasuka eRussia] bazisholo ukuthi bangabo phakathi neminyaka edlule. Kodwa kukhona labo abahamba phambilini, yebo, abazange bamemezele lutho.
Bahamba kanjani futhi kuphi eRussia
- Kuyacaca ukuthi iRussia yafinyelela kanjani inkomba yabantu abayizigidi ezintathu abashiye (ngokusho kwezilinganiso zakho)?
UDenisenko: Yebo, siyazi ukuthi abantu baqale nini ukuhamba, bahambe kuphi futhi ngaziphi izizathu. Izibalo ziyakhuluma ngakho.
Uyakhumbula, eSoviet Union, ukufuduka kwakungacacile konke. Kuze kube sekupheleni kwawo-1920, i-USSR yayivuliwe, yabe ivaliwe. Ngemva kwempi, kwakukhona “ifasitela” elincane, ngisho “nefasitela”, eliya eJalimane iminyaka embalwa, labe selivaleka. Kwa-Israyeli, yonke into yayinzima kakhulu. Kodwa, njengomthetho, imihlangano [yabaholi baseSoviet] nomongameli baseMelika yaholela eqinisweni lokuthi “ifasitela” lavulelwa u-Israyeli, cha, cha, nezinkulungwane ezingamashumi amathathu [kwesokunxele]. Ngawo-1980, lapho kuqala inhlekelele yase-Afghan, ukufuduka [kusuka e-USSR] kwacishe kwaphela.
UMikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev, ovame ukugxekwa, akavulanga iwindi, kodwa ngempela iwindi. Umthetho wamaSoviet waba qotho kakhulu - okungenani [kuze kube sekuhambeni] kwabantu abathile. Kusukela ngo-1987, ukuphuma kwaqala. Ekuqaleni, iwindi lalivulekele abafuduki bezizwe - amaJuda, amaJalimane, amaGreki, amaHungary, ama-Armenia. Ekuqaleni, ukuphuma kwakuncane, kodwa kwaqala ukwanda kakhulu.
Inkinga yeminyaka yawo-1990, vele, yaqala ukukhipha abantu. [Kwabafuduki] abangaphezu kwezigidi ezintathu, abangaphezu kwengxenye abasele ngasekupheleni kwawo-1980-1990. Cishe ama-95% - eJalimane, e-United States nase-Israel. Engxenyeni ebalulekile yabantu abahambe baya eJalimane nakwa-Israel, umzila wokufuduka wawuwukubuyisela ekhaya. E-United States, umzila oyinhloko ngaleso sikhathi kwakungababaleki.
Kwabe sekuba noshintsho, futhi lezi zinsiza zokubuyiswa zancishiswa [njengoba iningi labameleli beqembu elincane lesizwe lahamba]. EJalimane, baqala ukukhawulela ukuthutheleka kwababuyiselwe. Uma ekuqaleni kweminyaka yawo-1990 ama-75% [kulabo ababengena bevela eRussia] kwakungamaJalimane, maphakathi nawo-1990 kuphela ama-25% awo ayengamaJalimane. Futhi bonke abanye - amalungu emindeni yabo - babengamaRussia, amaKazakh, noma ubani, kodwa hhayi amaJalimane. Ngokwemvelo, [lokhu kungaholela] ezinkingeni ngokuhlanganiswa, nolimi - nemikhawulo yaqala ukwethulwa [kulabo abafisa ukuhamba], ikakhulukazi ngolimi lwesiJalimane. Akuwona wonke umuntu owayengayidlulisela: phela, isiJalimane akusona isiNgisi.
Ngeminyaka yawo-1990, ubunzima obukhulu bokuhamba, ngicabanga ukuthi, kwakuwukuma kulayini ehhovisi lenxusa. Kwakusenama-consulates ambalwa, kwakudingeka ukuma isikhathi eside kakhulu - hhayi usuku noma ezimbili, kodwa isonto noma amabili. Kodwa amazwe ayevuleke ngokwanele [ukwamukela abantu abavela ezweni elaliyi-USSR]. Wonke umuntu wayazi ukuthi kwakukhona ukugeleza kwabantu abaningi abafanelekayo abavela eSoviet Union. Kwakukhona ngempela izinhlobo eziningi ezahlukene zezinhlelo, izibonelelo - zabafundi, ososayensi.
Futhi ekuqaleni kwawo-2000, wonke la malungelo avalwa. Izwe [iRussia] laba lentando yeningi [uma liqhathaniswa ne-USSR], futhi, ake sithi, isimo sombaleki kwadingeka sifakazelwe ngokungathi sína, ukuze sincintisane nabanye ababefuna ukuhamba. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukugeleza kwehlile, izinhlelo zokukhetha zivele. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lezi zinhlelo zokukhetha, empeleni, zaqala ukwakha ukugeleza kwabafuduki: obani abashiya, kungani futhi kuphi.
Sagcina ngani? Uzuze isiteshi "izihlobo". Manje i-40-50% yabafuduki abavela eRussia bahamba ngomzila wokuhlanganisa umndeni, okungukuthi, ukuthuthela ezihlotsheni.
Esinye isigaba singochwepheshe abaqeqeshwe kakhulu: ososayensi, onjiniyela, abahleli bezinhlelo, abasubathi, abadansi be-ballet, njalonjalo. Ngawo-1990, abantu abavelele bahamba [eRussia], ngawo-2000 no-2010, njengomthetho, abantu abasha abanamakhono. Esinye, sesithathu, isigaba ngabantu abacebile. Ngokwesibonelo, Spain lalingelinye lamazwe okuqala eYurophu ukuvumela ukudayiswa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo kubantu bakwamanye amazwe. Sinemiphakathi emikhulu lapho.
Yini ebizwa ngegagasi lokufuduka? Yimaphi amagagasi okufuduka avela eRussia ahlukaniswa?
UDenisenko: Cabanga ngegrafu lapho i-axis engezansi, i-abscissa, iyisikhathi. Thina [eRussia] sinezibalo zokufuduka ngo-1828, manje ngo-2022. Futhi kuleli shadi sihlela inani labafuduki. Lapho inombolo ikhula, kwakheka uhlobo lwamagagasi. Empeleni, yilokhu esikubiza ngokuthi igagasi. Amagagasi ayinto ebalulekile ehlala isikhathi esingaphezu konyaka owodwa.
Empeleni saba nokukhuphuka okuningana okunjalo. Igagasi lokuqala - ekupheleni kwawo-1890 - ekuqaleni kwekhulu leminyaka. Lokhu ukufuduka kwamaJuda-Polish, ngakho-ke ngokuvamile akuqokwa njengegagasi. Kodwa kwakuyigagasi elinamandla, elikhulu kunawo wonke [ukufuduka kwabantu emlandweni wezwe], salwa namaNtaliyane endaweni yokuqala enanini labafuduki baya e-United States. Khona-ke leli gagasi laqala ukugqugquzelwa abafuduki baseRussia nabase-Ukraine. IMpi Yezwe Yokuqala yaqeda konke lokhu.
Igagasi lesibili ngokulandelana kwezenzakalo futhi elokuqala, uma sithatha isikhathi samaSoviet, ukufuduka kwabamhlophe. Khona-ke ukufuduka kwezempi kanye nangemva kwempi ngeminyaka yama-1940s-1950s. Ukufuduka kwenkathi ye-1960-1980 nakho ngezinye izikhathi kubizwa ngokuthi igagasi, nakuba lokhu kungalungile. [Eshadini] kuwumugqa oqondile, kodwa ngezikhathi ezithile kuba nokuqhuma, izigaba. Kodwa iminyaka yawo-1990 yayiyigagasi.
- Futhi kwenzekani ngokufuduka eRussia eminyakeni engu-20 edlule?
UDenisenko: Ngabe zikhona izigaba? Umbuzo omuhle, kodwa kunzima kimi ukuwuphendula, ngoba angiboni izigaba ezicacile [ngalesi sikhathi].
- Ngokwemizwa yami, osopolitiki abaningi, izishoshovu nezintatheli baqale ukulishiya izwe ngo-2021. Zithini izibalo ngalokhu?
UDenisenko: Ngizokudumaza, kodwa izibalo azikuboni lokhu. Kodwa angase angaboni ngenxa yezizathu ezihlukahlukene.
Izibalo, ngokuphambene nalokho, zibona ukunciphisa ukugeleza - hhayi kuphela eRussia. Kunjalo, i-covid, izinyathelo ezivimbelayo zathathwa [ekuhambeni phakathi kwamazwe]. Isibonelo, izibalo zaseMelika - i-United States ithatha enye yezindawo ezintathu eziphezulu lapho isuka eRussia - ngo-2020 ibonisa ukwehla kwenani labangenayo. Ngaphandle kwalabo abahamba ngama-visa omsebenzi. Uma sithatha abamukeli bamakhadi aluhlaza, khona-ke kukhona futhi abambalwa babo. Iqiniso liwukuthi ufaka isicelo sekhadi eliluhlaza unyaka noma emibili [ngaphambi kokuthutha]. Isimo siyafana naseYurophu: ukunciphisa kwenzeka cishe yonke indawo, ngaphandle kwesigaba esisodwa - labo abaya emsebenzini.
- Uthe izibalo aziboni ukwanda kokusuka eRussia ngo-2021. Ngokwazi kwami, abaningi bashiye iGeorgia efanayo, lapho umuntu engakwazi ukuhlala kuze kube unyaka ngaphandle kwe-visa nanoma yisiphi isimo. Ingabe abantu abanjalo abakwazi nje ukungena ezibalweni?
UDenisenko: Yebo, impela. Ungaya kwelinye izwe isikhathi esithile, isibonelo, ngesibonelelo, futhi ungabi phakathi kwezakhamuzi ezihlala unomphela. Nalapha futhi kunenkinga yencazelo. Umuntu uzibona engumfuduki, kodwa izwe alimthathi njengomfuduki. Esinye isigaba ngabantu abanamapasi amabili. Bafika eRussia, khona-ke into engabalungelanga, babuyela emuva. Awafakiwe nakuzibalo.
Ngemuva kweBolotnaya Square, abaningi baphinde bathi banomuzwa wokuthi wonke umuntu uhambile. Futhi kwaba nje, mhlawumbe, labo abashiya ababenethuba - imvume yokuhlala noma enye into kwelinye izwe. Khona-ke, ngendlela, kwaba nokuhlinzwa okuncane, kodwa ngokoqobo unyaka.
• Khumbula ukukhala uPutin? Futhi imibuthano yabantu abayizinkulungwane eziyikhulu ku-20-degree frost? Eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, imigwaqo yaseMoscow yaba indawo yomzabalazo wangempela wezombangazwe (kunzima ukukholelwa manje). Kwaba njalo
- Ngabe ukuhamba kwabantu abavela eRussia ngemuva kukaFebhuwari 24 kungabizwa ngokuthi igagasi?
UFlorinskaya: Mhlawumbe, uma iningi lalaba bantu lingabuyi. Ngoba abaningi bashiye ukulinda isikhathi sokwethuka. Noma kunjalo, iningi labo lahamba ukuze liyosebenza kude. Kungenzeka kanjani lokhu? Ngicabanga ukuthi maduze ngeke kwenzeke kakhulu. Kumele ubuke.
Ngokwenombolo [yalabo abahambile], yebo, lokhu kuningi ngenyanga. [Izinga lokufuduka kwabantu besuka eRussia ngeminyaka yawo-1990s] belingakafinyelelwa, kodwa uma unyaka uqhubeka njengoba wawuqala, khona-ke sizongena kahle futhi, mhlawumbe, size sidlule eminye iminyaka yama-1990s. Kodwa kuphela uma ukusuka kuzokwenzeka ngesivinini esifanayo namanje - futhi, ukukhuluma iqiniso, angiqiniseki ngalokhu. Ngoba nje, ngaphezu kwesifiso kanye nezici ezicindezelayo, kukhona nezimo zamazwe abamba iqhaza. Kimina kubonakala sengathi manje seziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu kuwo wonke umuntu.
Ngisho noma singakhulumi ngokuqapha kubantu abanepasipoti yaseRussia, kodwa ngokufanelekile, kunzima ukuhamba: izindiza azihambi, akunakwenzeka ukuthola ama-visa emazweni amaningi. Ngasikhathi sinye, kunobunzima bokuthola izipesheli, ukungakwazi ukuthola imifundaze yemfundo. Phela abaningi babo bafunda ngokuxhaswa ngemali yokufunda. Manje la mathuba ayancipha, ngoba izimali eziningi zokufunda zizosabalalisa kabusha [izimali] kubabaleki base-Ukraine. Lokhu kunengqondo.
Ubani osuka eRussia. Futhi ubani ozayo
- Ukufuduka kungase kwenzeke ngezizathu ezihlukahlukene - isibonelo, ezomnotho, ezombusazwe, ezomuntu siqu. Kukusiphi isimo lapho sikhuluma ngokufuduka ngenkani?
UDenisenko: Ukufuduka okuphoqelelwe yilapho, sizokusho, uxoshwa ngaphandle kwezwe. Impi isiqalile - abantu baphoqeleka ukuthi bahambe. Inhlekelele yemvelo - iChernobyl, izikhukhula, isomiso - nayo iyisibonelo sokufuduka ngenkani. Ukucwasa. Ngandlela thize, lokhu yikho konke okuxhumene nomqondo othi "umbaleki".
Kunemibandela ecacile yokuhlonza ababaleki kanye nabafuna ukukhoseliswa. Uma uthatha izibalo, i-contingent evela eRussia ayincane. Ngokwesiko, abantu abavela eNyakatho yeCaucasus, ama-Chechen diaspora, nabancane ngokobulili bawela kuwo.
- Ingabe ukufuduka kwabantu abaningi abavela eRussia manje ukufuduka okuphoqelelwe?
Florinskaya: Yebo. Nakuba phakathi kwalabo abahambile, kukhona abantu abahlela ukufuduka, kodwa esikhathini esizayo, ezimweni ezolile. Baphinde baphoqeleka ukuthi babaleke, ngoba besaba ukuthi izwe lizovalwa, bazomemezela ukuhlangana, nokunye.
Uma sikhuluma ngokufuduka kwabantu ngenkani, asikho isikhathi sezizathu. Abantu bavele bacabange ukuthi basindisa izimpilo zabo. Kancane kancane, lapho ingozi eqondile isidlulile, kuvela ukuthi iningi labo lihambe ngenxa yezizathu zezomnotho futhi ngeke libuyele kuzo. Ngoba bazi kahle ukuthi kuzokwenzekani emnothweni waseRussia, ukuthi ngeke bakwazi ukusebenza, ukugcina izinga lokuphila ababenalo.
Ingxenye ethile - kanye nengxenye enkulu kakhulu kulokhu kugeleza - ngeke ibuye ngezizathu zezepolitiki. Ngoba abakakulungeli ukuhlala emphakathini ongakhululekile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, besaba ukushushiswa ngobugebengu obuqondile.
Ngicabanga ukuthi labo abanquma ukuhamba unomphela, kunokulinda [phesheya], ngeke besakhetha ukunikezwa okungcono kakhulu. Bazoya okungenani endaweni ethile lapho ungathola khona ukuzinza futhi ngandlela-thile usinde kulezi zikhathi ezinzima.
- Ukufudukela kwamanye amazwe kuyithinta kanjani iRussia ngokwemali yabantu kanye nomnotho?
UDenisenko (waphendula umbuzo ngaphambi kokuqala kwempi, - cishe. Meduza): Uyazi, ngifuna ukusho ngokushesha ukuthi kuthinta kabi. Sinenqwaba yabantu abanamakhono kakhulu nabafundile, esibahlonze ngenani labantu. Kuyini ukuphikisana lapha? Kunenkinga ezweni – ukungafani kweziqu nendawo yokusebenza. Umuntu uthweswe iziqu, ngokwesibonelo, e-Faculty of Engineering, futhi usebenza njengomphathi esitolo - lokhu futhi, ngokwezinga elithile, ukulahlekelwa kwezimali zabantu. Uma sicabangela le nkinga, ngakho-ke, cishe, lokhu kulahlekelwa kuncishiswa kancane ngokwevolumu.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, labo abahambayo, bangabonakala ngezinga elingakanani lapha [eRussia]? Cishe abakwazi ukuzibona ngokugcwele, njengoba benza laphaya [phesheya], ezweni lakithi. Uma abantu, ochwepheshe behamba futhi bexhumana nezwe lakubo, kungaba ukudluliselwa kwemali, ukuthutheleka kwezinto ezintsha, nokunye, lokhu kuyinqubo evamile.
UFlorinskaya (ephendula umbuzo ngemva kokuqala kwempi, – cishe. Meduza): ERussia, kubi. Ukugeleza kwabafuduki abaqeqeshiwe, okungukuthi, abantu abanemfundo ephakeme, kuzoba phezulu kulo nyaka kunaseminyakeni edlule.
Kubonakala kufana [ngokungabalulekile] maqondana nezwe lethu elikhulukazi, nokho kungathinta. Ngoba kukhona ukuhamba okukhulu kwezakhamizi, abantu bezobuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene, kodwa ngemfundo ephakeme - izintatheli, ochwepheshe be-IT, ososayensi, odokotela, njalonjalo. Lokhu kungase kube umonakalo, kodwa kusesekuseni kakhulu ukukhuluma ngakho. Kungacatshangwa ukuthi lokhu kuzoba ngesinye sezici ezimbi kakhulu zalokhu kufuduka okuphoqelelwe, ngisho nangaphezu kwenani [labantu abahambile].
Kulokhu kufuduka, inani labantu abanemfundo ephakeme lizoshintsha kakhulu. Yayivele inkulu kakhulu - 40-50%, ngokusho kwezilinganiso zami, kodwa izoba ngu-80-90%.
- Ubani oza endaweni yabantu abasuka eRussia? Ingabe ukulahlekelwa kugcwaliswa ngezindleko zezinye izingxenye zabantu nabafuduki?
UDenisenko: Ngawo-1990 no-2000, kwaba khona ozongena esikhundleni. Abantu abaningi abaqeqeshwe kakhulu bavela kumaRiphabhulikhi eNyunyana. Manje akukho ukushintshwa okunjalo. Intsha iyahamba, ikhono liyalahleka ngezinga elithile. Lokhu ukulahlekelwa kweqiniso.
UFlorinskaya: Ubani ozongena esikhundleni? Saqonda ngezintatheli - [iziphathimandla] azibadingi. Ochwepheshe be-IT abaqeqeshwe kakhulu, ngicabanga, kuzoba yinkinga ukushintshwa. Lapho abacwaningi sebeqala ukuhamba, akukho okungenziwa nakho. Odokotela basenhlokodolobha abahambe njengokujwayelekile bazothathelwa odokotela basezifundazweni. Ezindaweni zabasebenzi asebethathe umhlalaphansi bamafemu amakhulu, ngicabanga ukuthi nabo bazothathwa ezifundeni. Ubani oyosala ezifundeni, angazi. Ngisho neminyaka eyi-10 edlule, bathi iMoscow iyindawo yokuthutha phakathi kwesifundazwe neLondon. Lokhu kuyihlaya, kodwa yile ndlela ukufuduka njalo kwahamba: abantu bafika kuqala eMoscow, bese besuka lapho baya phambili emazweni angaphandle.
Iningi lokuthuthela [eRussia] alikanawo amakhono, ngakho akunjalo [lapho abafuduki bengathatha isikhundla sochwepheshe abahambile]. Abanekhono kakhulu futhi abaqeqeshiwe kusukela CIS futhi bakhetha ukungahlali eRussia, kodwa ukuya kwamanye amazwe. Kwake kwaba yimfuneko ukubaheha, kodwa sabe sesiphakamisa amakhala. Manje kungani kufanele baye ezweni elingaphansi unswinyo, uma ungakwazi ukusebenza kwamanye amazwe? Kunzima ukucabanga ukuthi kukhona ozoya lapha ngaphansi kwalezi zimo.
KUZOKWENZEKANI EMAKETHINI YABASEBENZI E-RUSSIA
• Ngabe sibuyela emuva ngeminyaka yawo-1990? Bangaki abantu abazophelelwa umsebenzi maduze? Hhayi-ke, okungenani amaholo azokhokhwa? Noma akunjalo?.. Kuphendula umcwaningi wemakethe yezabasebenzi uVladimir Gimpelson
- Ingabe sezikhona izinguquko eziphawulekayo maqondana nabafuduki abasebenza eRussia kuze kube muva nje? Basaqhubeka nokusebenza noma nabo bayahamba?
UFlorinskaya: Azikho izinguquko ekuqaleni kukaMashi. Sethule inhlolovo yokuhlola encane, sisanda kuthola idatha. Enye ingxenye ithi yebo, kudingekile ukuhamba [eRussia], kodwa kuze kube manje bambalwa kakhulu. Abanye bathi: “Sikubi nakakhulu.”
Ngicabanga ukuthi ukuthutheleka [kwabasebenzi abathuthela eRussia] kuzoba ngaphansi kunangaphambili kwe-covid. Futhi ngenxa yokuthi ithuba lokuza laliphinde libe nzima: amathikithi abiza imali eningi, kunezindiza ezimbalwa. Kodwa abakhona bazolinda bahambe. Mhlawumbe kuzothi kushaya ihlobo kube kubi kakhulu lapha kuze kunqanyulwe imisebenzi, lokhu kuzoshaya abafudukayo. Kodwa kuze kube manje lokhu akwenzeki.
– Ngokuvamile, izwe kufanele likhathazeke mayelana nokufuduka? Iziphathimandla kufanele zikunake kangakanani? Uzama ukuvimbela?
UDenisenko: Ngokwemvelo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukufuduka. Kungani? Ngoba ukuthuthela kwelinye izwe kuyinkomba eqinile yezenhlalo nezomnotho. Kunenkulumo ethi: “Abantu bavota ngezinyawo zabo.” Kuyiqiniso kuwo wonke amazwe. Uma ukugeleza [kokufuduka] kwanda, kusho ukuthi kukhona okungahambi kahle kuhulumeni. Uma ososayensi behamba, kusho ukuthi kukhona okungahambi kahle enhlanganweni yesayensi. Odokotela bayahamba - kukhona okungahambi kahle enhlanganweni yezokunakekelwa kwempilo. Abafundi abathweswe iziqu bayahamba - into efanayo. Masihambe ogesi – kukhona okungahambi kahle lapha. Lokhu kumele kuhlaziywe futhi kubhekwe.
Inqubomgomo kahulumeni kufanele ivuleleke kulabo abahambayo. Akufanele kube nemingcele noma izithiyo. Lo mkhuba omubi awuholeli kunoma yini enhle. Thatha iSoviet Union efanayo. Kwakukhona abahlubuki - uNureyev, Baryshnikov njalonjalo. Lokhu ukulahlekelwa okungenakulungiseka: asizange sibone uBaryshnikov esiteji, asizange sibone uNureyev, kodwa ngabe beza uma konke kwakujwayelekile.
Indlela abafuduki abaphila ngayo nokuthi kungani ngezinye izikhathi bebuyela ezweni lakubo
Uyabafundela abantu abahambile? Kukangaki labo abahambayo bakwazi ukujwayela futhi baqale ukuzihlanganisa nezwe elisha?
UDenisenko (waphendula umbuzo ngaphambi kokuqala kwempi, - cishe. Meduza): Ngingakwazi ukuveza imibono yozakwethu. U-Andrey Korobkov, uprofesa eNyuvesi yaseTennessee, ukhuluma ngesihloko saseRussia-American futhi ikakhulukazi nalabo [baseRussia] abahlala lapho [e-US]. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthambekela kokufana kunamandla kakhulu. Uma amaGreki ehlangene nenkolo, amaJalimane ngokwedlule emlandweni, khona-ke eyethu, eyashiya ngeminyaka yawo-1990 no-2000, yazama ukuhlanganisa nokuhlakaza ngangokunokwenzeka. Uyazi nokuthi bekuyini? Ekunciphiseni ukuxhumana nabantu bakithi. Kwakungenye yezinkomba. Njenga manje? Kimina kubonakala sengathi lo mkhuba usaqhubeka.
Emazweni aseYurophu, isibonelo eJalimane, isimo sihlukile: kunezikhulumi eziningi zesiRashiya lapho. Laba akubona ochwepheshe abaqeqeshwe kakhulu - kanye - kodwa izakhamuzi zangaphambili, amaJalimane aseRussia ahlonipha amasiko. Abaningi bayaxhumana.
Okwesibili, ibanga nalo lidlala indima enkulu lapha: iGermany iseduze neRussia. Abaningi bagcina ubudlelwano obusondelene kakhulu nezwe, ngakho-ke ukulinganisa kuhamba kancane. Kukhona futhi imininingwane yezwe: IJalimane incane [kune-US], kunezindawo zokuhlala ezihlangene, kusele amadoda amaningi ezempi aseSoviet.
E-France nase-Italy, inkinga yokulinganisa yenziwa ngendlela ehlukile. Sinokufuduka kwe-Italy - 80% yabesifazane. IsiFulentshi - 70%. Baningi abafuduki “abashadile,” okungukuthi, labo abashadayo.
I-Great Britain, kubonakala kimi, ilandela indlela efanayo ne-States: emva kwakho konke, abantu bazama ukwenza okungenani izingane zabo "isiNgisi". Abafuduki ngokwabo abaphuli ukuxhumana nezwe, kunzima kubo ukwenza lokhu: abaningi babo basenamabhizinisi, izindlu, abangane eRussia. Kodwa izingane zabo azinalo nhlobo isithakazelo ezweni lakubo, futhi uma zinesithakazelo, khona-ke libuthakathaka.
- Ngokubona kwami, abaningi balabo abasuka eRussia kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2021 bayenqaba ngokuphelele ukuzibiza ngabafuduki, nakuba behambisana nale ncazelo. Kuvame kangakanani lokhu?
UDenisenko: Umuntu ofudukayo ungumfuduki, umuntu uye washiya indawo yokuhlala unomphela (indawo yokuhlala unomphela, - cishe. Meduza), cishe ukukhuluma. UVladimir Ilyich Lenin akazange azibheke njengomuntu ofudukayo, nakuba azulazula eYurophu isikhathi eside - kodwa wayenethemba lokubuya. Lapha, ngokusobala, bafuna ukugcizelela ukuthi ngaphansi kwezimo ezishintshile bazobuyela ezweni.
Kimina kubonakala sengathi lena ukuphela kwencazelo lapha: bagcina ubunikazi babo ngenkathi bephesheya, abazami ukufiphaza noma ukukufihla nganoma iyiphi indlela, kodwa bagcizelele: "NgingumRussia / Ukraine / Georgian, nakanjani ngizobuyela ezweni lakithi. , mhlawumbe ngemva kweminyaka engu-20, kodwa noma kunjalo.”
Kufana nesikhathi sabo nama-passport e-Nansen. Iningi lamazwe lapho abelungu abafuduki khona bavunyelwe ukwamukela ubuzwe babo. Kodwa [abanye] basala nama-passport akwa-Nansen. Babengaziboni njengabafuduki abasuka kwamanye amazwe abamhlophe futhi babenethemba lokuthi bazobuya.
- Iningi lalabo abashiya bathola abakufunayo? Ingabe zikhona izifundo ngezinga lenjabulo phakathi kwalabo abahambile?
UDenisenko: Ucwaningo ngezinga lenjabulo luyenziwa. Kodwa nginganikeza amanye amapharamitha njengezinga lenjabulo.
I-Israel iyizwe elihle lokufunda ngemiphumela yokufuduka kithi. Ngoba kwa-Israel izibalo zabafuduki abavela eSoviet Union zigcinwa ngokwehlukana. Sibonani kulezi zibalo? Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1990, amaJuda afudukele kwa-Israyeli aqala ukuphila isikhathi eside. Okusho ukuthi, iminyaka yabo yokuphila iphakeme kakhulu kuneyamaJuda alapha [eRussia]. Bakhuphule izinga labo lokuzalwa. Futhi eSoviet Union naseRussia, amaJuda ayiqembu elinezinga eliphansi lokuzalwa.
Azikho izibalo ezinjalo e-States, kodwa kunezinye izibalo - isibonelo, izigameko ezifanayo kubantu asebekhulile. Angisoze ngakhohlwa lapho ngimi emgqeni wokuthola amathikithi okuya kuMetropolitan Opera eNew York, kwakumi abesifazane ababili ngemva kwami. Babekhuluma isiRashiya, futhi saqala ukubazi. Laba besifazane babengabafuduki bevela eLeningrad. Kwesinye isikhathi bakhala. Uyazi ukuthi kungani? Bathi: “Uyazi, asikhululekile. Sithuthele lapha futhi siyajabula lapha. Siphathwa, sithola imali enkulu, singaya eMetropolitan, kodwa abangani bethu nozakwethu abasala eLeningrad banqatshelwe konke lokhu. Abanye babo sebashona sikhona yize bengontanga yethu.”
Izinkomba ezinjalo ziveza kakhulu. Umsebenzi, imali engenayo, imfundo, ukuqashwa nakho kuyizinkomba. Siyabona ukuthi e-States naseCanada, amaRussia ekugcineni athatha izikhundla ezinhle. IYurophu iyafana.
- Ukufuduka kabusha kwenzeka kangaki? Abantu ngokuvamile babuya nini futhi kungani?
UFlorinskaya: Ukufuduka kabusha kwenzeka, kodwa ukuthi kaningi kangakanani ukulinganisa kunzima kakhulu ukulinganisa. Njengoba ibhizinisi lamazwe ngamazwe lithuthuka ezweni, kwaba khona izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe, lapho labo abathola imfundo yaseNtshonalanga babedingeka khona, kulapho [ochwepheshe abasha] bebuya. Ngokukhula kocwaningo lwamazwe ngamazwe, amalabhorethri asezingeni lamazwe ngamazwe, kulapho abacwaningi bebuya khona.
Uma sekubhidlika konke, akusekho lapho ongabuyela khona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga elithile lamaholo libalulekile.
Ingabe amaningi ala magagasi azobuya?
UFlorinskaya: Abantu ababoshelwe emakethe yezisebenzi yaseRussia, abangeke bakwazi ukuthola umsebenzi [phesheya], bayobuya ngenxa nje yokuthi “badla” izindawo ezigciniwe, futhi ngeke ube khona omunye umsebenzi wabo. Akuwona wonke umuntu ozokwazi ukusebenzela ukude eRussia. Ngiyazi abanye abantu abasebenzela izinkampani zaseRussia asebephoqelekile ukuthi babuye. Kunezinkampani ezivale ukusebenza kumaseva angaphandle. Kukhona abafundi abebengavunyelwe ukuthatha amaseshini ku-inthanethi. Ngakho-ke, noma ngabe izinkulungwane eziyi-150 zihambile, lokhu akusho ukuthi abanye babo ababuyanga.
Futhi, lokhu akusho ukuthi abantu manje, bebona sonke lesi simo, abalungiseleli ukuhamba kwabo, kodwa hhayi nje ezimweni ezinzima kangaka. Uma ngaphambili, ngaphambi kwesikhathi se-COVID-19, abantu abayizinkulungwane eziyi-100-120 basuka eRussia ngonyaka, manje, kungenzeka ukuthi izinombolo zizofinyelela ezinkulungwaneni ezingama-250 noma ezingama-300. Kuzoncika ekhonweni lokuwela umngcele, inani lezindiza kanye nekhono lokubamba endaweni ethile kwamanye amazwe.
[Ngaphambi] abantu basitshela ezingxoxweni ezijulile: “Uma ngidingeka kakhulu, thola umsebenzi, angisho ukuthi anginambuyiselo.” Kepha njengoba inkululeko yezomnotho nepolitiki inyamalala ezweni, umbuthano walabo abangabuya ungahle unciphe. Manje isinciphe nakakhulu.
Isithombe: Ukuphuma eCrimea. 1920
