by Anthony Pereira – Zaben Brazil – Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ya samu gagarumin koma-baya a siyasance ta hanyar sake samun shugabancin Brazil. Karamar nasarar da ya samu, a zagaye na biyu na zagaye na biyu, ita ce tazara mafi kusa da nasara a zaben da aka gudanar tun bayan da Brazil ta koma kan tafarkin dimokuradiyya a karshen shekarun 1980. Sakamakon ya kasance kashi 50.9% na Lula da 49.1% na shugaban kasa mai ci, Jair Bolsonaro - bambancin kuri'u sama da miliyan 2 cikin kusan kuri'u miliyan 119 da aka kada.
Yanzu haka Lula ya shirya wa'adi na uku, shekaru 12 bayan ya kawo karshen wa'adinsa na biyu a matsayin shugaban kasa mai farin jini da ba a saba gani ba wanda ya samu ci gaban tattalin arziki da zamantakewa tsakanin 2003 da 2010.
A yayin yakin neman zaben 'yan takarar biyu sun yi watsi da shi kan wasu sanannun jigogi: Bolsonaro ya tunatar da masu jefa kuri'a game da cin hanci da rashawa da aka gano game da wasu mambobin gwamnatin Lula. A nasa bangaren, Lula ya soki Bolsonaro saboda rashin yadda ya tafiyar da rikicin COVID, wanda Brazil ta yi rikodin Adadin wadanda suka mutu a kasar na biyu bayan Amurka.
Amma - sabanin 2018 lokacin da Lula yake mulki a matsayin wanda bai cancanci tsayawa takara ba saboda hukuncin da aka yanke masa a 2017 zargin cin hanci da rashawa (Tun da aka soke) kuma Bolsonaro a maimakon haka ya doke ƙwararru kuma ba a san shi ba Fernando Haddad, wannan ba zabe ba ne wanda cin hanci da rashawa ya kasance babban batu.
Madadin haka, tattalin arzikin ya zama kamar shine babban abin damuwa na yawancin masu jefa kuri'a. Jigon tallafin Lula ya fi mayar da hankali sosai a cikin talakawan arewa maso gabas. Taimakon Bolsonaro yana da ƙarfi musamman a cikin gidaje masu wadatar kudanci, kudu maso gabas da kuma tsakiyar-yamma.
Gamayyar jam'iyyu goma da Lula ya yi wata babbar gamayyar ce tun daga hagu zuwa ta tsakiya. Yaƙin neman zaɓe ya haɗu da ƙungiyoyin siyasa guda biyu waɗanda suka kasance abokan gaba a cikin 2000s: Jam'iyyar Ma'aikata ta Lula (Partido dos Trabalhadores, ko PT) da ’yan siyasa da suka kasance ko kuma har yanzu mambobi ne na Social Democratic Party (Centre-right Social Democratic Party)Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, ko PSDB) da kuma Brazilian Democratic Movement (Movimento Democratico Brasileiro, ko MDB).
Mataimakin shugaban kasa Lula ne Geraldo Alckmin, Katolika mai ra'ayin mazan jiya kuma tsohon memba na PSDB. MDB memba Simone Tebet, dan takarar shugaban kasa a zagaye na farko, ya yi wa Lula yakin neman zabe a zagaye na biyu, wanda kuma watakila za a ba shi gurbi a majalisar ministocin Lula.
Daya daga cikin makullin gwamnatin Lula a nan gaba shi ne ko wannan kawancen zai iya kasancewa tare. Ta ci gaba da kasancewa cikin hadin kai a lokacin yakin neman zabe, a lokacin da take da manufa daya ta kayar da shugaba mai ci. Ko za ta ci gaba da rike hadin kan ta a gwamnati wata tambaya ce.
Fissures na iya bayyana lokacin da gwamnati za ta yi zaɓe mai wahala game da tafiyar da tattalin arzikin da ƙalubalen sake gina ikon jihohi a wuraren da gwamnatin Bolsonaro ta lalata. Lalacewar ta bayyana musamman a muhalli, lafiyar jama'a, ilimi, 'yancin ɗan adam da manufofin waje.
Bolsonaro koma baya?
Har yanzu Bolsonaro bai yi wata sanarwa ba game da sakamakon zaben ko dai don amincewa ko kuma zargin magudi. Kwanaki masu zuwa za su yi gwajin halayensa da yanayin tafiyar da ta kai shi shugabancin kasar.
Wannan motsi wani lokaci ana siffanta shi azaman a ƙawancen dama-dama na naman sa (agribusiness), Littafi Mai-Tsarki (masu zanga-zangar bishara) da harsasai (sassan 'yan sanda da sojoji, da kuma sabbin manyan mukamai na masu bindigogi).
Bolsonaro na iya yin fushi abin da ya fada bayan muhawarar karshe ("Duk wanda ya fi yawan kuri'u ya dauki zabe") kuma ya amince da shan kaye. Amma kuma yana iya yin koyi da gwarzonsa kuma mai ba shi shawara Donald Trump da ƙoƙarin yada labari game da zamba, ƙin yarda da sahihancin nasarar da Lula ya samu a zaɓe kuma ya zama shugaban masu adawa da sabuwar gwamnati.
A karkashin dokar Brazil yana da 'yancin yin hakan yi hamayya da sakamakon ta hanyar shigar da karar zuwa kotun koli, kamar yadda dan takarar da ya sha kaye ya yi a 2014. Aecio Neves na PSDB. Amma dole ne ya gabatar da kwararan hujjoji. Wataƙila sakamakon zai kasance kama da sakamakon bayan zaɓen 2014, lokacin da kotu ta ƙarshe mulki a kan Neves.
Lula ya kai ga 'yan adawa a cikin nasa karɓar magana a yammacin Lahadi. Ya ce wani abu da Bolsonaro bai taba fada ba bayan nasararsa ta 2018 - kuma ba a kowane lokaci ba: "Zan yi mulki ga 'yan Brazil miliyan 215, ba kawai wadanda suka zabe ni ba."
Ya kuma zayyana wasu daga cikin manufofin gwamnatinsa na gaba. Mafi matsananci shine rage yunwa da fatara, da hanzarta habakar tattalin arziki, da karfafa bangaren masana'antu. Mahimmanci Lula ya kuma jaddada bukatar yin hadin gwiwa da abokan huldar kasa da kasa don rage yawan sare itatuwa a cikin Amazon.
Kalubale a gaba
Gwamnatinsa za ta yi tashin hankali. Kudin gwamnati ya fi kowa komai a lokacin da Lula ya zama shugaban kasa na karshe. Matsakaicin karin karin mafi karancin albashi, wanda Lula ya bayyana a lokacin yakin neman zabe, na iya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. a halin yanzu yana aiki kusan 7%. Abubuwan da ake amfani da su sun kasance masu tsayayye kuma masana'antu - waɗanda suka ragu a matsayin kaso na tattalin arziƙin ƙasa baki ɗaya - ba su da gasa a duniya a sassa da yawa.
Amma babban kalubalen da Lula zai fuskanta watakila shi ne na siyasa. Wataƙila Bolsonaro ya rasa shugabancin ƙasar, amma da yawa daga cikin abokansa sun sami manyan mukamai na siyasa a ƙasar. Biyar daga cikin tsoffin ministocin Bolsonaro sun sami matsayi a Majalisar Dattawa, inda Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) ke da kujeru mafi girma. Uku daga cikin tsoffin mambobin majalisar ministocin Bolsonaro sun samu gurbi a majalisar wakilai ta kasa, inda PL kuma ita ce babbar jam'iyya.
A cikin jihohi, 'yan takara sun yi daidai da Bolsonaro ya lashe kujerun gwamnoni 11 cikin 27, yayin da ‘yan takarar da ke goyon bayan Lula suka samu nasara takwas kawai. Mafi mahimmanci, jihohi uku mafi girma kuma mafi mahimmanci a Brazil - Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, da Sao Paulo - gwamnonin masu goyon bayan Bolsonaro ne za su yi mulki daga 2023.
Bolsonaro na iya zama saboda barin shugabancin - amma Bolsonarismo baya zuwa ko ina.
Anthony Pereira - Farfesa mai ziyara a Makarantar Harkokin Duniya, Kwalejin King London, shi ne kuma darekta na Kimberly Green Latin American da Caribbean Center a Jami'ar Kasa da Kasa ta Florida.
