Pambuyo pa Msonkhano wa NATO: Kodi Tili Pankhondo Ndi Russia?

Chimodzi mwazinthu zochititsa chidwi kwambiri zomwe zidapezeka pa zokambirana za ku Vilnius chinali choti achite za Russia. Ngakhale umembala wa Ukraine (kapena kusowa kwake), kulowa kwa Sweden ndi mikangano yozungulira F-16s zonse zidawoneka zazikulu, zikafika pazowopsa zomwe zikuwopseza kwambiri chitetezo cha ku Europe, panali malingaliro ochepa omwe adaperekedwa kupitilira kuletsa kapena kudzipatula kwathunthu.

Kukambitsirana kowopsa kwambiri kwa Russia sikunabwere kuchokera pamawu omaliza koma ku NATO Public Forum - yomwe wolembayu adapitako - yomwe idachitikira pambali pa msonkhanowo. Pokambirana, Mlembi wa Chitetezo ku UK Ben Wallace adatchulidwa kuti kungakhale kulakwitsa kukana zonena za atsogoleri akulu aku Russia kukhala zabodza. Pomwe tikuyesera kuziyika ngati zosafunikira, zonena zapagulu zimapereka chidziwitso chazandale zaku Russia, komanso momwe utsogoleri waku Russia umawonera dziko lapansi. Wallace anali kunena za nkhani yodziwika bwino yomwe Purezidenti Vladimir Putin analemba mu July 2021 za Ukraine, zomwe zinavumbula chikhulupiriro chake kuti Ukraine si dziko lodziimira palokha ku Russia. Ngakhale kuti nkhaniyi sinali kalambulabwalo wosapeŵeka wa kuwukiridwa komwe kunatsatira, Wallace adanenanso kuti kuwerengedwa mozama kwa mawu aboma kunawonetsa momwe Ukraine ikukambitsirana pazandale zapamwamba kwambiri ku Russia.

Kukambitsirana kumeneku kunali gawo limodzi la mfundo zokhuza kuthekera kwa kukwera kwa zida za nyukiliya ku Ukraine, koma kuwululira momveka bwino kuti pali zinthu zambiri zomwe sitikuzidziwa pakupanga zisankho zaku Russia pankhondo - makamaka komwe mizere yofiyira yaku Moscow kapena poyambira kukwera. kukhala, kapena lingaliro lenileni la momwe Kremlin ikutanthauzira zochita za Kumadzulo. Pachifukwa ichi, ndikofunikira kuyang'ana malingaliro ndi zochita zochokera ku Moscow poyankha msonkhanowu.

Kukonzekera Nkhondo?

Imodzi mwamayankhidwe owopsa kwambiri pamsonkhanowu idachokera ku chiwonetsero chambiri cha Russia cha 60 Minutes, chomwe. ankadzinenera kuti kumangidwa kwa magulu ankhondo a NATO kumatanthauza kuti NATO ikukonzekera nkhondo ndi Russia. Ngakhale mauthenga omveka bwino ochokera ku NATO kuti sakufuna mkangano ndi Russia, msonkhanowu udapangidwa ngati wokulirapo, kuopseza kulimbana mwachindunji ndi Russia ndi Ukraine anagwidwa pakati. Palibe mlendo ku hyperbole, wachiwiri kwa wapampando wa Security Council Dmitry Medvedev anachenjezedwa kuti 'apocalypse ya nyukiliya' inali chochitika chomwe chingasonyeze kutha kwa nkhondo. Kenako, tsiku lotsatira msonkhanowo utatha, mneneri wa Unduna wa Zakunja a Maria Zakharova adapita patsogolo, akumanena kuti mfundo yaikulu ya msonkhanowo inali yakuti NATO inene cholinga chake choyambitsa nkhondo yaikulu ku Ulaya.

Lingaliro lakuti Russia ili pa nkhondo yosasinthika ndi West si yatsopano, ndipo yakhala a zovuta mutu wa zokambirana mochedwa. Koma ngati Russia imadziona kuti ili pankhondo ndi Kumadzulo, ndipo NATO ikukhulupirira kuti yachita chilichonse kuti ipewe kukwera komanso kulimbana mwachindunji ndi Russia, ndiye kuti pali malo ochepa omwe angagwire nawo ntchito. Kungakhale koyeneranso kuganizira kuti dziko la Russia lomwe limadzikhulupirira kuti lili pankhondo likhoza kukhala lololera kuchita zinthu zowopsa komanso zosayembekezereka, zomwe zimapangitsa kutsika komanso kumvetsetsa mizere yofiira ya Moscow kukhala yovuta kwambiri.

Kodi Mizere Yofiira ili kuti?

Sizokayikitsa kukhala mwangozi kuti kuzungulira msonkhanowu, zolankhula zochokera ku Russia pakugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya zidakula. Pomanga Vilnius, Putin yosungidwa kuti Russia idasuntha zida za nyukiliya ku Belarus, ndipo Unduna wa Zachilendo (MFA) udatulutsa zinthu zingapo (zokayikitsa kwambiri) kuti achoke, monga kuchotsedwa kwa magulu onse ankhondo aku US ku Europe. Zakhalaponso ena mawu ochokera kwa Sergei Naryshkin, wamkulu wa SVR (nzeru zakunja), kuti Ukraine ikupanga zomwe zimatchedwa 'bomba lonyansa', mwina poyesa kukankhira nkhani zabodza. Pro-government tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda adanena kuti pakuwonjezeka kwa magulu ankhondo a NATO (osakhala a nyukiliya), Russia idakhala ndi ufulu woyankha, kuphatikiza kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya.

Zina mwazojambula ndizofunikira apa. Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti kulumikizana kwa MFA pokhudzana ndi kuyimitsidwa kwa zida za nyukiliya sikunachokere kwa Nduna Yachilendo Sergei Lavrov mwiniwake, koma kuchokera kwa mkulu wina wodziwika bwino komanso wocheperako dzina lake Alexei Polishchuk, yemwe amatsogolera dipatimenti ya Commonwealth of Independent States - osati gawo lofunikira kwambiri ku Russia. pakadali pano. Polishchuk ali mawonekedwe - adalankhulapo za Ukraine kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya kale - koma sizachilendo kuti dipatimenti yake itsogolere pamawu okhudza nkhani yofunika kwambiri.

Ngakhale sikungakhale kwanzeru kunyalanyaza kuwonetsa kwa Russia pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ya nyukiliya, zikuwoneka kuti Kremlin yabwera kudzayankha ku West nthawi iliyonse ikatchulidwa, chifukwa izi zikubwereranso ku ndondomeko yachangu yotsegula njira zoyankhulirana mwadzidzidzi. ndi Russia. Ndizotheka kuti Russia ikuwona kuyankha kwa Kumadzulo ngati chofooka chomwe chingachitike, kapena kuyesera kufufuza kufunitsitsa kwa NATO kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zanyukiliya. Kapena, kungakhale kufunafuna kupanga maziko amtsogolo a zokambirana zothandiza za chitetezo; ndi Russia kuyimitsidwa ya New START mu February 2023, palibe mapangano owongolera zida omwe amathandizira chitetezo cha nyukiliya ku Europe - zochitika zowopsa zomwe zadzetsa mkangano waukulu pakati pa ophunzira ku Russia, osati zonse zomwe zikukulirakulira. Malingaliro a anthu ndi ofunikira panonso - kafukufuku wa chikhalidwe cha anthu omwe adatulutsidwa pa Julayi 13 adawonetsa kuti magawo atatu mwa anayi a anthu aku Russia ndi otsutsa ku dziko pogwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya ku Ukraine, ngakhale - monga momwe funsoli linapangidwira - lidzapambana nkhondoyo. Kafukufukuyu angakhale atapatsidwa ntchito yoyesa madzi, komanso kuti adziwe momwe maganizo a anthu akugwirizana ndi ndemanga za atsogoleri akuluakulu posachedwapa.

Zonsezi zikusonyeza kuti zokambirana za zida za nyukiliya ndi kupita kwawo ku Belarus zikhoza kuyimira chida chachilendo chachilendo kusiyana ndi kufunitsitsa kwenikweni kukwera pamlingo wapamwamba. Ngakhale kuli kovuta kudziwa komwe kuli malire a Moscow, pali zovuta zochepa zomwe zimakopa chidwi cha Kumadzulo monga funso la nyukiliya, ndipo Russia ikanawona uwu ngati mwayi wobwereranso pazokambirana.

Titani ndi Izi?

Kutenga ziganizo za ndondomeko yakunja yaku Russia pamtengo wake ndizovuta. Monga kale, zolinga zake zimayimira zofuna zawo zambirimbiri ndipo nthawi zambiri zimapikisana komanso zotsutsana. Koma ngati tikuganiza kuti Russia ikukhulupirira kuti ili kale pankhondo ndi NATO, ndiye kuti payenera kukhala kukambirana kokulirapo pazomwe akumadzulo amachita ndi Russia kuchokera pano.

NATO yomaliza Amalumikiza imatchula Russia kangapo ngati chiwopsezo chachikulu komanso chachindunji ku dongosolo ladziko lonse lapansi komanso chitetezo chamayiko. Koma chomwe sichinayankhidwe chinali ngati pakhala kusintha kulikonse kuyambira pomwe nkhondo idayamba pakumvetsetsa kwa Alliance ndikuyembekeza momwe Moscow ikuganizira - mwina ponena za NATO, kapena za momwe nkhondo yanyukiliya ilili, kapena komwe mizere yake yofiira ingakhale. Ngati yankho liri loti sipanakhalepo kusintha kulikonse, ndiye kuti zikuwoneka kuti palibe lingaliro logwirizana la momwe izo zingasinthire pakapita nthawi, ndi zotsatira zomwe zingakhalepo pakugwiritsa ntchito asilikali kapena kuika patsogolo chuma.

Pamsonkhano waukulu womwe umayang'ana kwambiri zachitetezo, sikunawonekere kukhala ndi malingaliro anzeru amomwe mungapewere kuganiza za gulu za mdani wowopsa kwambiri yemwe sitikumvetsetsa bwino zomwe zikuyenera kukulirakulira.

Malingaliro omwe afotokozedwa mu Ndemanga iyi ndi a wolemba, ndipo sakuyimira a Boma la Mfumu Yake, RUSI kapena bungwe lina lililonse.

Muli ndi lingaliro la Ndemanga yomwe mukufuna kutilembera ife? Tumizani mawu ofupikira ku [email protected] ndipo tidzabweranso kwa inu ngati zikugwirizana ndi zomwe timakonda pa kafukufuku wathu. Malangizo athunthu kwa omwe akuthandizira angapezeke Pano.