by Anthony Pereira - Chisankho cha Brazil - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wabweza modabwitsa pazandale potenganso utsogoleri wa Brazil. Kupambana kwake pang'ono, mumpikisano wachiwiri, kunali koyandikira kwambiri pachisankho kuyambira pomwe Brazil idabwerera ku demokalase kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1980. Zotsatira zake zinali 50.9% kwa Lula ndi 49.1% kwa purezidenti yemwe ali pampando, Jair Bolsonaro - kusiyana kwa mavoti opitilira 2 miliyoni mwa mavoti ovomerezeka pafupifupi 119 miliyoni.
Lula tsopano wasankhidwa kukhala gawo lachitatu, zaka 12 atamaliza nthawi yake yachiwiri ngati purezidenti wotchuka kwambiri yemwe adakwaniritsa kukula kwachuma komanso kuphatikizana pakati pa 2003 ndi 2010.
Panthawi ya kampeni, omenyera awiriwa adaziyika pamitu yodziwika bwino: Bolsonaro adakumbutsa ovota za ziphuphu zomwe zidavumbulutsidwa zokhudzana ndi mamembala angapo aboma la Lula. Kwa iye, Lula adadzudzula Bolsonaro chifukwa chosasamalira bwino vuto la COVID, pomwe Brazil idalembapo zavutoli. chiwerengero chachiwiri chapamwamba kwambiri cha imfa za dziko kumbuyo kwa United States.
Koma - mosiyana ndi 2018 pomwe Lula anali adalamula kuti ndi wosayenera kuthamanga chifukwa cha chikhulupiriro chake cha 2017 milandu katangale (kuyambira anulled) ndipo Bolsonaro m'malo mwake adamenya Fernando Haddad yemwe sakudziwa zambiri komanso wosadziwika, iyi sinali chisankho chomwe katangale inali nkhani yayikulu.
M’malo mwake, chuma chinawoneka kukhala nkhaŵa yaikulu ya ovota ambiri. Pakatikati pa chithandizo cha Lula chimakhazikika kwambiri mu osauka kumpoto chakum'mawa. Thandizo la Bolsonaro ndilolimba kwambiri m'mabanja omwe ali bwino kumwera, kum'mwera chakum'mawa ndi pakati-kumadzulo.
Mgwirizano wa Lula wa zipani khumi unali mgwirizano waukulu kuyambira kumanzere kupita pakati-kumanja. Kampeniyi idabweretsa magulu awiri andale omwe adakhala adani mzaka za m'ma 2000: Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, kapena PT) ndi andale omwe anali kapena akadali mamembala a chipani cha Social Democratic Party (Partido ndi Social Democracia Brasileira, kapena PSDB) ndi Brazilian Democratic Movement (Movimento Democratico Brasileirokapena MDB).
Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa Lula anali Geraldo Alckmin, Mkatolika wosunga mwambo komanso membala wakale wa PSDB. Membala wa MDB Simone Tebet, omuyimiridde wa pulezidenti mu ddwaaliro lw’okutandika, n’akolanya Lula mu ddwaaliro lw’ebiri n’oyo bwe yali atuukiriddwa ng’obukulu bwa Lula.
Chimodzi mwa makiyi a boma la Lula lamtsogolo ndikuti ngati mgwirizanowu ukhoza kukhala limodzi. Inakhalabe yogwirizana panthawi ya kampeni, pamene inali ndi cholinga chogonjetsa pulezidenti yemwe anali pampando. Kaya idzasunga mgwirizano wake m’boma ndi funso lina.
Mafissures atha kuwoneka pomwe olamulira akuyenera kupanga zisankho zovuta pankhani ya kasamalidwe kazachuma komanso zovuta zomanganso mphamvu za boma m'malo omwe adawonongeka kwambiri ndi utsogoleri wa Bolsonaro. Zowonongeka zikuwonekera makamaka m'chilengedwe, thanzi la anthu, maphunziro, ufulu wa anthu ndi ndondomeko zakunja.
Bolsonaro backlash?
Bolsonaro sananenebe za zotsatira za chisankho kuti avomereze kapena kunena zachinyengo. Masiku akubwera adzapereka mayesero a khalidwe lake ndi chikhalidwe cha kayendetsedwe kamene kanamubweretsa ku pulezidenti.
Kusuntha kumeneko nthawi zina kumadziwika ngati a mgwirizano wolimba za ng'ombe (agribusiness), Baibulo (evangelical protestants) ndi zipolopolo (mbali za apolisi ndi asilikali, komanso eni mfuti omwe angowonjezera kumene).
Bolsonaro akhoza kubwereza zomwe ananena pambuyo pa mtsutso womaliza (“aliyense amene ali ndi mavoti ambiri amatenga chisankho”) ndikuvomera kugonja. Koma atha kutsanziranso ngwazi yake ndi mlangizi Donald Trump ndikuyesera kufalitsa nkhani yokhudza zachinyengo, kukana kuvomereza kuvomerezeka kwa chisankho cha Lula ndikukhala mtsogoleri wotsutsa boma latsopanolo.
Pansi pa malamulo aku Brazil ali ndi ufulu tsutsani zotsatira pokaimba mlandu kukhothi lalikulu lachisankho, monga momwe adachitira munthu yemwe adaluza mu 2014, Aecio Neves wa PSDB. Koma anayenera kupereka umboni wosatsutsika. Zotsatira zake zitha kukhala zofanana ndi zomwe zidachitika pambuyo pa chisankho cha 2014, pomwe khotilo lidafika analamulira motsutsana ndi Neves.
Lula anafika kwa otsutsa ake chiyanjano Lamlungu madzulo. Adanena zomwe Bolsonaro sananene atapambana mu 2018 - kapena nthawi ina iliyonse kuyambira pomwe: "Ndidzalamulira anthu aku Brazil 215 miliyoni, osati okhawo omwe adandivotera."
Anapanganso zina mwazo zolinga za boma lake lamtsogolo. Zovuta kwambiri ndizo kuchepetsa njala ndi umphawi, kupititsa patsogolo kukula kwachuma, ndi kulimbikitsa mafakitale. Chofunika kwambiri Lula adatsindikanso kufunika kogwirizana ndi mabwenzi apadziko lonse lapansi kuti achepetse kuchepa kwa nkhalango ku Amazon.
Zovuta zakutsogolo
Boma lake lidzakhala ndi nkhondo yaikulu. Ndalama za boma ndi zopanda kanthu kuposa momwe zinalili pamene Lula anali pulezidenti womaliza. Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa malipiro ochepa, omwe Lula adawonekera pa nthawi ya kampeni, akuyenera kukweza kukwera kwa inflation, pakali pano pafupifupi 7%. Kupanga zinthu kumakhalabe kwakanthawi ndipo mafakitale - omwe atsika ngati gawo lazachuma chonse - alibe mpikisano padziko lonse lapansi m'magawo ambiri.
Koma vuto lalikulu la Lula mwina lingakhale ndale. Bolsonaro atha kukhala atataya utsogoleri, koma ambiri omwe amamuthandiza nawo apambana maudindo amphamvu m'dziko lonselo. Atumiki asanu akale a Bolsonaro adapambana malo mu Senate, pomwe Bolsonaro Liberal Party (PL) ili ndi mipando yayikulu kwambiri. Atatu mwa mamembala akale a Bolsonaro adapambana malo m'nyumba yotsika ya National Congress, pomwe PL ndiyenso chipani chachikulu kwambiri.
M'maboma, ofuna adagwirizana nawo Bolsonaro adapambana 11 pa maulamuliro 27 a maboma, pomwe ofuna kupikisana ndi Lula adapambana asanu ndi atatu okha. Chofunika koposa, maiko atatu akulu komanso ofunikira kwambiri ku Brazil - Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, ndi Sao Paulo - azilamuliridwa ndi abwanamkubwa a pro-Bolsonaro kuyambira 2023.
Bolsonaro atha kukhala chifukwa chosiya utsogoleri - koma Bolsonarismo sapita kulikonse.
Anthony Pereira - Pulofesa Woyendera pa Sukulu ya Global Affairs, King's College London, ndi mkulu wa Kimberly Green Latin America ndi Caribbean Center ku Florida International University.
