by Anthony Pereira - Sarudzo dzeBrazil - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva akawana kudzoka kunoshamisa mune zvematongerwo enyika nekutora zvakare hutungamiri hweBrazil. Kukunda kwake kudiki, mumutambo wechipiri werun-off, ndiko kwakava mukana wekukunda musarudzo kubva Brazil yadzokera kudemokrasi mukupera kwema1980. Mhedzisiro yacho yaive 50.9% yaLula uye 49.1% yemutungamiri aripo, Jair Bolsonaro - mutsauko wemavhoti anodarika mamirioni maviri kubva pamavhoti angangoita mamirioni zana negumi nepfumbamwe.
Lula parizvino akagadzirirwa temu yechitatu, makore gumi nemaviri apedza temu yake yechipiri semutungamiri ane mukurumbira zvisina kujairika akawana budiriro yehupfumi pamwe nekubatanidzwa kwevanhu pakati pa12 na2003.
Munguva yemushandirapamwe vaviri vaikwikwidza vakazvinyudza pamusoro pemamwe madingindira akajairika: Bolsonaro akayeuchidza vavhoti nezvehuwori hwakafumurwa pamusoro penhengo dzinoverengeka dzehutongi hwaLula. Kune chikamu chake, Lula akashoropodza Bolsonaro nekubata kwake kwakashata dambudziko reCOVID, umo Brazil yakanyora iyo. yechipiri-yepamusoro-soro nhamba yerufu munyika kumashure kweUnited States.
Asi - kusiyana muna 2018 apo Lula aive akatonga seasingakodzeri kumhanya nekuda kwekutongwa kwake muna 2017 mhosva dzehuori (sezvo zvabviswa) uye Bolsonaro panzvimbo pacho vakarova vasina ruzivo uye vasingazivikanwe Fernando Haddad, iyi yanga isiri sarudzo umo huori yaive nyaya huru.
Panzvimbo pezvo, upfumi hwairatidzika kuva chinhu chikuru chinoitira hanya vavhoti vakawanda. Mwoyo werutsigiro waLula wakaiswa zvakanyanya mu varombo kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva. Tsigiro yeBolsonaro yakanyanya kusimba mukati medzimba dziri nani dzekumaodzanyemba, maodzanyemba-kumabvazuva uye pakati-kumadokero.
Mubatanidzwa waLula wemapato gumi waive mubatanidzwa wakafara kubva kuruboshwe kuenda pakati-kurudyi. Mushandirapamwe uyu wakaunza pamwe mauto maviri ezvematongerwo enyika anga ari vavengi muma2000: Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, kana PT) uye vezvematongerwo enyika vanga vari kana vachiri nhengo dzepakati-kurudyi Social Democratic Party (Chikamu cheSocial Democracia Brasileira, kana PSDB) uye Brazilian Democratic Movement (Movimento Democratico Brasileiro, kana MDB).
Mutevedzeri waLula aive mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika Geraldo Alckmin, muKaturike anochengetedza uye aimbova nhengo yePSDB. MDB nhengo Simone Tebet, mumiriri wemutungamiri wenyika munharaunda yekutanga, akakurudzira Lula muchikamu chechipiri uye angangopihwa nzvimbo mudare remakurukota raLula.
Imwe yekiyi kune ramangwana rehurumende yeLula ndeyekuti mubatanidzwa uyu ungagara pamwe chete. Yakaramba yakabatana panguva yemushandirapamwe, apo yaive nechinangwa chekukunda mutungamiri wenyika. Kana ichachengeta kubatana kwayo muhurumende mumwe mubvunzo.
Fissures inogona kuoneka kana manejimendi achifanira kuita sarudzo dzakaoma nezve manejimendi ehupfumi uye dambudziko rekuvakazve masimba ehurumende munzvimbo dzakanyanya kukuvadzwa nehutongi hweBolsonaro. Kukuvadzwa kunonyanya kuoneka munharaunda, hutano hwevanhu, dzidzo, kodzero dzevanhu uye mutemo wekunze.
Bolsonaro backlash?
Bolsonaro haisati yataura nezve mhedzisiro yesarudzo kubvuma kana kupomera hutsotsi. Mazuva anouya achapa bvunzo yehunhu hwake uye chimiro chesangano rakamuunza kuhutungamiriri.
Kufamba ikoko dzimwe nguva kunoonekwa sea zvakaoma-kurudyi mubatanidzwa yemombe (agribusiness), Bhaibheri (evangelical protestants) nemabara (zvikamu zvemapurisa nemauto, pamwe chete ne vachangobva kuwedzerwa zvikwata zvevaridzi vepfuti).
Bolsonaro anogona kudzokorora zvaakataura mushure megakava rekupedzisira ("uyo ane mavhoti akawanda anotora sarudzo") uye anobvuma kukundwa. Asi anogona zvakare kutevedzera gamba rake uye chipangamazano Donald Trump uye kuyedza kuparadzira rondedzero yehutsotsi, kuramba kubvuma kurongeka kwekukunda kwesarudzo kwaLula uye kuve mutungamiri wekupikisa kusavimbika kuhurumende itsva.
Pasi pemutemo weBrazil ane kodzero yeku pikisa mugumisiro nekuita nyaya kudare repamusoro-soro resarudzo, sezvakaita mumiriri akarasika muna 2014, Aecio Neves wePSDB. Asi aifanira kuendesa humbowo hunogutsa. Mhedzisiro yacho ingangove yakafanana nezvakabuda mushure mesarudzo dza2014, apo dare rinozopedzisira akatonga achipikisa Neves.
Lula akasvika kune vanopikisa mune yake kugamuchirwa kutaura neSvondo manheru. Akataura chimwe chinhu chisina kumbotaurwa naBolsonaro mushure mekukunda kwake muna 2018 - kana chero nguva kubva: "Ndichatonga mamirioni mazana maviri negumi nemashanu eBrazil, kwete chete avo vakandivhotera."
Akagadzirawo zvimwe zve zvinangwa zvehurumende yake yeramangwana. Chinonyanya kunetsa kudzikisa nzara nehurombo, kusimudzira hupfumi hwenyika, uye kusimbaradza maindasitiri. Zvakanyanya kukosha Lula akasimbisawo kukosha kwekushandira pamwe nevadyidzani vepasirese kuti vadzikise mwero wekuparadzwa kwemasango muAmazon.
Zvinetso zviri mberi
Hurumende yake ichava nehondo huru. Homwe yehurumende haina zvayakanga yakaita apo Lula aive purezidhendi wekupedzisira. Kuwedzera kukuru kwemuhoro wakaderera, uyo Lula akaonekwa achizvipira kwairi panguva yemushandirapamwe, anogona kukwidza inflation, ikozvino irikusvika pa7%. Kubudirira kunoramba kwakamira uye indasitiri - iyo yadzikira sechikamu chehupfumi hwese - haina kukwikwidza pasi rose muzvikamu zvakawanda.
Asi dambudziko guru raLula rinogona kunge riri rezvematongerwo enyika. Bolsonaro anogona kunge akarasikirwa nehutungamiriri, asi vazhinji vevabatsiri vake vakakunda zvinzvimbo zvine simba zvezvematongerwo enyika kutenderera nyika. Vashanu vevaimbova makurukota eBolsonaro vakahwina nzvimbo muSeneti, uko Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) ine bloc hombe yezvigaro. Vatatu venhengo dzeBolsonaro dzekare dzakahwina nzvimbo muimba yepasi yeNational Congress, uko PL iriwo bato rakakura.
Munyika, vamiriri vakaenderana Bolsonaro akahwina gumi nerimwe kubva pamakumi maviri nemanomwe emagavhuna ehurumende, ukuwo vakakwikwidza vakafanana naLula vakahwina masere chete. Zvinotonyanya kukosha, nyika nhatu dzakakura uye dzakanyanya kukosha muBrazil - Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, uye Sao Paulo - dzichatongwa nemagavhuna epro-Bolsonaro kubva muna 11.
Bolsonaro anogona kunge ari nekuda kwekusiya chigaro chemutungamiri - asi Bolsonarismo hapana kwaanoenda.
Anthony Pereira - Anoshanyira Purofesa muChikoro cheGlobal Affairs, King's College London, zvakare mutungamiriri weKimberly Green Latin America neCaribbean Center paFlorida International University.
