Mushure memusangano weNATO: Tatova Kuhondo neRussia?

Kumwe kushaikwa kunokatyamadza pakurukurirano muVilnius kwaiva chokuita pamusoro peRussia. Kunyangwe nhengo yeUkraine (kana kushaikwa kwayo), kupinda kweSweden uye nharo dzakatenderedza F-16 dzese dzakakura, kana zvasvika pakuita kwakatenderedza kutyisidzira kwakanyanya kuchengetedzeka kweEurope, pakanga paine mashoma ehungwaru maonero akaunzwa kunze kwekudzivisa kana kusabatanidzwa zvachose.

Hurukuro yakakasharara yeRussia haina kubva munhaurirano yekupedzisira asi paNATO Public Forum - iyo yakapindwa nemunyori uyu - iyo yakaitirwa padivi pemusangano. Muhurukuro, Munyori weDziviriro weUK Ben Wallace akadaro kuti chingave chikanganiso kuramba zvirevo kubva kuhutungamiriri hwepamusoro hweRussia zvachose sepropaganda. Ndichiri kuedza kuvakanda sezvisina basa, zvirevo zveveruzhinji zvinopa zviratidzo nezveRussia yezvematongerwo enyika barometer, uye pfungwa yekuti hutungamiriri hweRussia hunoona sei nyika. Wallace aitaura nezvechinyorwa chazvino-chine mukurumbira chakashata icho Mutungamiri Vladimir Putin akanyora muna Chikunguru 2021 nezveUkraine, iyo yakaratidza kutenda kwake kuti Ukraine yakanga isiri nyika yakasununguka kubva kuRussia. Kunyange zvazvo chinyorwa ichi chaive chisiri chirevo chisingadzivisiki chekupinda kwechisimba kwakazotevera, Wallace akataura kuti kunyatsoverengera kwezvirevo zvepamutemo kwakaratidza kuti Ukraine yaikurukurwa sei padanho repamusoro rezvematongerwo enyika muRussia.

Hurukuro iyi yaive chikamu chepfungwa nezve mukana wekukwira kwenyukireya muUkraine, asi yakaratidza zvakanyanya kuti kuchine zvinhu zvakawanda zvatisingazive nezvekuita sarudzo yeRussia pahondo - kunyanya uko mitsetse mitsvuku yeMoscow kana zvikumbaridzo zvekukwira zvingave, kana pfungwa chaiyo yekuti Kremlin iri kududzira sei zviito zveWest. Nokuda kweizvi, zvakakodzera kuongorora maonero nezviito kubva kuMoscow mukupindura kumusangano.

Kugadzirira Hondo Here?

Imwe yemhinduro dzinotyisa kumusangano uyu dzakabva kune yekutanga-nguva yeRussia hurukuro show 60 Minutes, iyo vakati kuti kuvakwa kwemauto eNATO kwaireva kuti NATO yaigadzirira hondo neRussia. Kunyangwe nemeseji yakajeka kubva kuNATO kuti haidi kupokana neRussia, musangano uyu wakarongwa seuri kuwedzera, kutyisidzira kurwisana kwakananga neRussia neUkraine yakabatwa pakati. Hapana mutorwa kune hyperbole, mutevedzeri wasachigaro weSecurity Council Dmitry Medvedev akanyeverwa kuti 'nuclear apocalypse' yaive chiitiko chinogoneka chaigona kuratidza kupera kwehondo. Zvino, zuva rakatevera kupera kwemusangano, mutauriri webazi rezvekunze, Maria Zakharova, akaenda mberi, vachiramba vachiti chidimbu chemusangano uyu chaive chekuti NATO itaure chinangwa chayo chekutanga hondo huru yeEurope.

Pfungwa yekuti Russia iri munzira isingachinjiki yehondo neWest haisi nyowani, uye yave a mainstream musoro wehurukuro yanonoka. Asi kana Russia yatozviona seyakarwa neWest, uye NATO inotenda kuti yakaita zvese kudzivirira kukwira uye kunangana kwakananga neRussia, saka pane zvakanyanya kushoma pasi pevhu rekushanda naro. Zvingave zvakakoshawo kufunga kuti Russia inozvitenda yatove kuhondo inogona kunge ichida kuita riskier uye hunhu husingafungidzike, izvo zvinoita kuti kudzikisira uye kunzwisisa mitsara mitsvuku chaiyo yeMoscow ive dambudziko.

MaRed Lines arikupi?

Izvo hazvigone kuve masanga kuti kutenderera kwemusangano, rhetoric kubva kuRussia pamusoro pekushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya yakawedzera. Mukuvaka-up kuna Vilnius, Putin rakachengetedzwa kuti Russia yakanga yatamisa zvombo zvenyukireya kuBelarus, uye Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) yakabudisa mamiriro ezvinhu (asingafungidziri zvikuru) ekubvisa kwavo, sekubviswa kwemauto ose eUnited States muEurope. Kwave zvakare mwe zvirevo kubva kuna Sergei Naryshkin, mukuru weSVR (njere dzekunze), kuti Ukraine iri kugadzira iyo inonzi 'tsvina bhomba', pamwe mukuyedza kusundira rondedzero yenhema-mureza. Pro-hurumende tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda Yakataurwa kuti nekuwedzera kwemauto eNATO (asiri-nyukireya), Russia yakachengeta kodzero yekupindura, kusanganisira nekushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya.

Mamwe echoreography akakosha pano. Zvinokosha kuziva kuti kutaurirana kweMFA pamusoro pekumisikidzwa kwenyukireya hakuna kubva kuGurukota reKune dzimwe nyika Sergei Lavrov pachake, asi kubva kumukuru asingazivikanwe uye ari mudiki anonzi Alexei Polishchuk, anotungamira dhipatimendi reCommonwealth of Independent States - isiri nzvimbo inonyanya kukosha kuRussia parizvino. Polishchuk ane fomu - akambotaura nezveUkraine achishandisa zvombo zvenyukireya - asi hazvina kujairika kuti bazi rake ritungamire pakutaura pamusoro penyaya yakakosha kudaro.

Kunyangwe zvingave zvisina hungwaru kufuratira kusaina kweRussia kwakatenderedza kushandiswa kwesimba renyukireya, zvinoita sekunge Kremlin yauya kutarisira mhinduro kubva kuMadokero pese pazvinenge zvataurwa, sezvo izvi zvichidzokera kuchirongwa chekukurumidzira kuvhura nzira dzekukurumidzira dzekutaurirana neRussia. Zvinogoneka kuti Russia inoona mhinduro yekuMadokero senge kushaya simba, kana kungave kuyedza kuongorora kuda kweNATO kushandisa simba renyukireya. Kana kuti, kungava kutsvaga kugadzira hwaro hweramangwana rehurukuro yekuchengeteka; pamwe neRussia kuturika yeNew START muna Kukadzi 2023, parizvino hapana zvibvumirano zvekudzora zvombo zvinotsigira chengetedzo yenyukireya muEurope - chiitiko chine njodzi chakonzera kukakavara kukuru pakati pevadzidzi vemuRussia, kwete zvese zviri kuwedzera. Manzwiro eruzhinji akakosha pano zvakare - ongororo yezvemagariro evanhu yakaburitswa muna Chikunguru 13 yakaratidza kuti zvikamu zvitatu muzvina zveRussia zvinopesana kunyika ichishandisa zvombo zvenyukireya muUkraine, kunyange kana - semubvunzo wakagadzirwa - yaizokunda hondo. Ongororo iyi inogona kunge yakapihwa basa rekuyedza mvura, uye kuona kuti maonero everuzhinji anofambirana zvakadii nemamwe zvakataurwa nevakuru vakuru munguva pfupi yapfuura.

Zvese izvi zvinoratidza kuti nhaurirano nezvezvombo zvenyukireya uye mafambiro azvo kuenda kuBelarus inogona kumiririra yakawanda yezvekunze mutemo chishandiso pane kuda chaiko kukwira padanho repamusoro. Kunyange zvichinetsa kuona kuti zvikumbaridzo zveMoscow zviri papi, pane nyaya shoma dzinobata kuMadokero semubvunzo wenyukireya, uye Russia ingangove yaona uyu semukana wekuzvidzosera munhaurirano.

Tinoitei neizvi?

Kutora zvirevo zvemutemo weRussia wekunze kwakaoma kwakaoma. Senguva dzose, zvinangwa zvaro zvinomiririra zviuru zvezvido zvako uye zvinowanzokwikwidza uye zvinopokana zvinangwa. Asi kana tikafunga kuti Russia inotenda kuti yatove muhondo neNATO, saka panofanira kunge paine nhaurirano inotsikirira pamusoro pezvinoitwa neWest neRussia kubva pano.

NATO yekupedzisira communique inotaura Russia kakawanda seyakanyanya kukosha uye yakananga kutyisidzira kurongeka kwenyika uye kuchengetedzeka kwenyika. Asi izvo zvisina kutariswa ndezvekuti pakave nekuvandudzwa kwemubatanidzwa kubva pakatanga hondo mukunzwisisa kweAlliance uye tarisiro yekuti Moscow inofunga sei - ingave maererano neNATO, kana nezvemamiriro ehondo yenyukireya, kana kuti mimwe mitsetse mitsvuku ingave kupi. Kana mhinduro iri yekuti hapasati pave nekuvandudzwa, saka hazviratidzike kunge paine kubvumirana-papfungwa yekuti izvo zvingashanduka sei munguva refu, uye zvinobatika zvinokonzeresa izvi pakushandisa mari muchiuto kana kuisa pamberi pezviwanikwa.

Pamusangano wakanangana nekuchengetedza, paisaratidzika kunge paine kufunga kwakawanda pamusoro pekuti tingadzivise sei kufunga kweboka nezvemuvengi ane njodzi uyo watisinganzwisise zvizere mabviro ekukwira.

Maonero aburitswa muChinyorwa chino ndeemunyori, uye haamiriri eHurumende yeHushe, RUSI kana chimwewo chikwata.

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