Emva kweNgqungquthela ye-NATO: Ngaba sele sisemfazweni neRashiya?

Enye yezona zinto zibalaseleyo zakungabikho kwingxubusho yaseVilnius yayikukuba makwenziwe ntoni ngeRashiya. Nangona ubulungu be-Ukraine (okanye ukungabikho kwayo), ukungena kweSweden kunye neengxoxo malunga ne-F-16s zonke zabonakala zinkulu, xa kufikwa kwizinto ezinokwenzeka malunga nesona sisongelo sicinezelayo kukhuseleko lwaseYurophu, zazimbalwa iimbono zeqhinga eziveziweyo ngaphaya kothintelo okanye ukungabandakanywa ngokupheleleyo.

Eyona ngxoxo ibalulekileyo yaseRussia ayivelanga kunxibelelwano lokugqibela kodwa kwiForam yoLuntu ye-NATO - athe lo mbhali waya kuyo - ebibanjelwe ecaleni kwengqungquthela. Kwingxoxo yephaneli, unobhala wezoKhuseleko wase-UK uBen Wallace phawula ukuba ibiya kuba yimpazamo ukuzikhaba ngawo omane iingxelo ezisuka kwiinkokeli eziphezulu zaseRashiya njengeziyipropaganda. Ngelixa uzama ukubaphosa njengento engabalulekanga, iingxelo zoluntu zinika umkhondo malunga ne-barometer yezopolitiko yaseRussia, kunye noluvo lwendlela iinkokeli zaseRussia ezibona ngayo umhlaba. UWallace wayebhekisa kwisincoko esidume kakubi ngoku esithi uMongameli Vladimir Putin wabhala ngoJulayi 2021 malunga neUkraine, eyatyhila inkolelo yakhe yokuba iUkraine ayilolizwe elizimeleyo kwiRashiya. Nangona esi sincoko sasingesosandulela esingenakuthintelwa kuhlaselo olulandelayo, uWallace ucebise ukuba ukufundwa ngokusondeleyo kweengxelo ezisemthethweni kwabonisa indlela iUkraine eyayixoxwa ngayo kumanqanaba aphezulu ezopolitiko eRashiya.

Le ngxoxo yayiyinxalenye yenqaku malunga nokunyuka kwenyukliya e-Ukraine, kodwa yatyhila ngokubanzi ukuba kusekho izinto ezininzi esingazaziyo malunga nokuthathwa kwezigqibo zaseRashiya malunga nemfazwe-ingakumbi apho imigca ebomvu yaseMoscow okanye imida yokunyuka inokuba khona, okanye ingqiqo yokwenyani yendlela i-Kremlin echaza ngayo izenzo zaseNtshona. Kule nto, kuyafaneleka ukuhlola iimbono kunye nezenzo ezivela eMoscow ekuphenduleni kwingqungquthela.

Ngaba Uzilungiselela Imfazwe?

Enye yezona mpendulo zothusayo kule ngqungquthela zivela kwi-prime-time Russian talk show 60 Minutes, ethi zifunyenwe ukuba ukwakhiwa kwemikhosi ye-NATO kuthetha ukuba i-NATO yayilungiselela imfazwe neRashiya. Ngaphandle kwemiyalezo ecacileyo evela kwi-NATO yokuba ayifuni ngquzulwano neRussia, le ngqungquthela yaqulunqwa njengento eyandayo, esongelayo Ungquzulwano oluthe ngqo kunye neRussia kunye neUkraine ibanjwe phakathi. Akukho mntu wasemzini kwi-hyperbole, usekela-sihlalo weBhunga lezoKhuseleko uDmitry Medvedev lumkisa ukuba 'i-apocalypse yenyukliya' yayiyimeko enokwenzeka eyayinokuphawula ukuphela kwemfazwe. Ke, kusuku emva kokuba kuqukunjelwe ingqungquthela, isithethi soMphathiswa wezangaPhandle uMaria Zakharova waya ngakumbi Top, igcina ukuba umxholo wengqungquthela ibiyeyokuba i-NATO ivakalise injongo yayo yokusungula imfazwe enkulu yaseYurophu.

Ingcamango yokuba iRashiya ikwikhosi engenakuguqulwa yemfazwe kunye neNtshona ayikho into entsha, kwaye iye yaba yinto eziqhelekileyo isihloko sengxoxo kade. Kodwa ukuba iRashiya sele izijonga njengemfazwe kunye neNtshona, kwaye i-NATO ikholelwa ukuba yenze konke ukuphepha ukunyuka kunye nokujongana ngqo neRashiya, ngoko kukho umhlaba ongaphantsi oqhelekileyo wokusebenzisana. Kusenokufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo into yokuba iRussia ekholelwa ukuba sele isemfazweni inokulungela ukubandakanyeka kwindlela yokuziphatha enobungozi kunye nokungacingelwanga ngakumbi, okwenza ukuhla kunye nokuqonda imigca ebomvu yokwenyani yaseMoscow ibe ngumngeni kakhulu.

Ziphi iMizila eBomvu?

Akunakwenzeka ukuba kwenzeke ngengozi ukuba malunga nengqungquthela, intetho evela eRussia malunga nokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya yanda. Ekwakheni uVilnius, uPutin zigcinwe ukuba iRashiya ifudusele izixhobo zenyukliya eBelarus, kwaye iSebe leMicimbi yezaNgaphandle (MFA) likhuphe uthotho lweemeko (ezingenakwenzeka kakhulu) zokurhoxiswa kwazo, ezinjengokususwa kwayo yonke imikhosi yase-US eYurophu. Kubekho kwakhona omnye Iingxelo ezivela ku-Sergei Naryshkin, intloko ye-SVR (i-intelligence yangaphandle), ukuba i-Ukraine yenza into ebizwa ngokuba 'yibhombu engcolileyo', mhlawumbi kumzamo wokutyhala ingxelo yeflegi yobuxoki. Pro-government tabloid IKomsomolskaya Pravda cetyiswa ukuba ngokunyuka kwemikhosi ye-NATO (engeyiyo yenyukliya), iRashiya inelungelo lokuphendula, kubandakanywa nokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya.

Ezinye ze-choreography zibalulekile apha. Kuyaphawuleka ukuba unxibelelwano lwe-MFA malunga nokuthunyelwa kwenyukliya aluveli kuMphathiswa Wezangaphandle uSergei Lavrov ngokwakhe, kodwa kwigosa elaziwayo elingaphantsi nelingaphantsi elibizwa ngokuba ngu-Alexei Polishchuk, okhokela isebe kwi-Commonwealth of Independent States - hayi indawo ephambili kakhulu eRussia okwangoku. Polishchuk uye imo Ukhe wathetha nge-Ukraine esebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngaphambili - kodwa ayiqhelekanga ukuba isebe lakhe likhokele kwintetho ejikeleze umba obaluleke kangaka.

Ngelixa bekuya kuba bubudenge ukungahoyi ukubonakaliswa kweRussia malunga nokusetyenziswa kwamandla enyukliya, kubonakala ngathi i-Kremlin ilindele impendulo evela eNtshona nanini na xa ikhankanywa, njengoko oku kubuyela kwi-ajenda ukungxamiseka kokuvula amajelo onxibelelwano olungxamisekileyo kunye neRussia. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba iRussia ijonga impendulo yeNtshona njengobuthathaka obunokwenzeka, okanye inokuba kukuzama ukuphonononga ukuzimisela kwe-NATO ukusebenzisa amandla enyukliya. Okanye, inokuba kukufuna ukwenza isiseko sexesha elizayo sengxoxo esebenzayo yokhuseleko; kunye neRashiya ukunqunyanyiswa ye-New START ngoFebruwari 2023, okwangoku akukho zivumelwano zolawulo lwezixhobo ezixhasa ukhuseleko lwenyukliya eYurophu-imeko eyingozi ebangele ingxoxo ebalulekileyo phakathi kwabafundi baseRashiya, kungekhona konke okunyukayo. Uvakalelo loluntu lubalulekile nalapha - uphando lwentlalontle olukhutshwe nge-13 kaJulayi lubonise ukuba ikota yesithathu yabantu baseRashiya chasene kwilizwe lisebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya eUkraine, nokuba - njengoko umbuzo wawuqulunqwe - iya kuphumelela imfazwe. Olu phando lusenokuba lugunyaziswe ukuba luvavanye amanzi, kunye nokufumanisa ukuba izimvo zoluntu zihambelana kangakanani na nezimvo zeenkokeli eziphezulu zamva nje.

Konke oku kuphakamisa ukuba iingxoxo malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya kunye nokuhamba kwazo ukuya eBelarus kunokumela isixhobo somgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle kunokuvuma okwenyani ukunyuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Ngelixa kunzima ukumisela ukuba iphi imigubasi yaseMoscow, kukho imiba embalwa ethimba ingqalelo yaseNtshona njengombuzo wenyukliya, kwaye iRussia yayinokukubona oku njengethuba lokuzifaka kwakhona kwincoko.

Senza Ntoni Ngoku?

Ukuthatha iingxelo zomgaqo-nkqubo waseRashiya wangaphandle ngexabiso eliphantsi kunzima. Njengangaphambili, iinjongo zayo zimela intaphane yeminqweno yobuqu kunye neenjongo ezisoloko zikhuphisana neziphikisanayo. Kodwa ukuba sicinga ukuba iRussia iyakholelwa ukuba sele isemfazweni ne-NATO, ke kufuneka kubekho ingxoxo ecinezelayo malunga nokuba iNtshona yenza ntoni neRussia ukusuka apha.

I-NATO yokugqibela communique ikhankanya iRashiya izihlandlo ezininzi njengesona sisongelo sibalulekileyo nesithe ngqo kucwangco lwehlabathi nokhuseleko lwamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa into engazange iqwalaselwe yayikukuba ingaba kukho naluphi na uphuculo oludibeneyo ukusukela oko kwaqala imfazwe ekuqondeni kwe-Alliance kunye nolindelo lwendlela iMoscow ecinga ngayo - nokuba malunga ne-NATO, okanye malunga neemeko zemfazwe yenyukliya, okanye apho eminye imigca ebomvu inokuba kuphi. Ukuba impendulo yeyokuba akukhange kubekho mpucuko, ngoko ke akubonakali ngathi kukho uluvo ekuvunyelwene ngalo malunga nokuba loo nto ingatshintsha njani kwixesha elide, kunye neziphumo ezinokwenzeka eziya kuba nazo kwinkcitho yasemkhosini okanye ukubeka phambili izixhobo.

Kwingqungquthela egxile kukhuseleko, akukhange kubonakale ngathi kukho ingcinga eninzi yobuchule malunga nendlela yokuphepha ukucinga njengeqela malunga nomchasi oyingozi kakhulu esingayiqondi ngokupheleleyo imida yokunyuka kwayo.

Iimbono ezivakaliswe kolu Mhlomlo zezombhali, kwaye azimelanga ezo zikaRhulumente woNgameleyo, iRUSI okanye naliphi na elinye iziko.

Ngaba unombono weNgxelo ongathanda ukusibhalela yona? Thumela i-pitch emfutshane ku [email protected] kwaye siza kubuyela kuwe ukuba ingena kwimidla yethu yophando. Izikhokelo ezipheleleyo zabaxhasi zinokufunyanwa Apha.