by Anthony Pereira - Unyulo lwaseBrazil - uLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva uzuze ukubuya okumangalisayo kwezopolitiko ngokuphinda afumane ubongameli baseBrazil. Uloyiso lwakhe olumxinwa, kumjikelo wesibini wokubaleka, yaba ngowona mda ukufutshane woloyiso kunyulo ukusukela oko iBrazil yabuyela kwidemokhrasi ekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1980. Isiphumo saba ngu-50.9% kaLula kunye ne-49.1% kumongameli ophetheyo, u-Jair Bolsonaro - umehluko weevoti ezingaphezulu kwe-2 yezigidi eziphantse zibe yi-119 yezigidi zeevoti ezivumelekileyo.
ULula ngoku umiselwe isihlandlo sesithathu, iminyaka eli-12 emva kokuphela kwekota yakhe yesibini njengomongameli odume ngokungaqhelekanga ophumelele kokubini ukukhula koqoqosho kunye nokubandakanywa kwentlalo phakathi kuka-2003 no-2010.
Ngexesha lephulo abakhuphisani babini bayikhuphela ngaphandle imixholo eqhelekileyo: UBolsonaro ukhumbuze abavoti ngorhwaphilizo olutyhilwe malunga namalungu aliqela olawulo lukaLula. Kwelakhe icala, uLula wamgxeka uBolsonaro ngokuphatha kakubi kwakhe ingxaki ye-COVID, apho iBrazil yabhala ingxelo inani lesibini eliphezulu lokubhubha kwelizwe ngasemva kweUnited States.
Kodwa - ngokungafaniyo no-2018 xa uLula wayenjalo walawula njengomntu ongafanelanga ukubaleka ngenxa yokugwetywa kwakhe ngo-2017 izityholo zorhwaphilizo (ukususela ku-anulled) kunye ne-Bolsonaro endaweni yoko babetha uFernando Haddad ongenamava kwaye ongaziwayo, olu yayingelonyulo apho ubuqhophololo yayingumba ophambili.
Endaweni yoko, uqoqosho lwabonakala luyeyona nto ixhalabisa abavoti abaninzi. Undoqo wenkxaso kaLula ugxile kakhulu kwi ihlwempuzekile kumntla-mpuma. Inkxaso kaBolsonaro yomelele ngakumbi kumakhaya aphila ngcono asemazantsi, emazantsi-mpuma kunye nakumbindi-ntshona.
Imanyano kaLula yamaqela alishumi yayiyimbumba ebanzi ukusuka ekhohlo ukuya embindini-ekunene. Eli phulo ladibanisa imikhosi emibini yezopolitiko eyayiziintshaba ngeminyaka yoo-2000: I-Lula's Workers' Party (Iqela labasebenzi, okanye PT) kunye nabezopolitiko ababekhe baba okanye basengamalungu eZiko le-Social Democratic Party (I-Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, okanye PSDB) kunye neBrazilian Democratic Movement (Movimento Democratico Brasileiro, okanye MDB).
Isekela likamongameli likaLula lalingenelela UGeraldo Alckmin, umKatolika obambeleleyo kunye nowayesakuba lilungu le-PSDB. Ilungu le-MDB Simone Tebet, umgqatswa wobumongameli kumjikelo wokuqala, ukhankasele uLula kumjikelo wesibini nonokuthi mhlawumbi anikwe indawo kwikhabhinethi kaLula.
Esinye sezitshixo kurhulumente weLula wexesha elizayo kukuba le mbumba ingahlala kunye. Yahlala imanyene ngexesha lephulo, xa yayinenjongo ekwabelwana ngayo yokoyisa umongameli owayephethe. Enoba iya kulugcina umanyano lwalo kurhulumente ngomnye umbuzo.
Iifissures zinokuvela xa ulawulo kufuneka lwenze ukhetho olunzima malunga nolawulo loqoqosho kunye nomngeni wokuvuselela amandla ombuso kwezo ndawo zonakaliswe kakhulu ngulawulo lukaBolsonaro. Umonakalo ubonakala ngokukodwa kwindalo, impilo yoluntu, imfundo, amalungelo oluntu kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle.
I-Bolsonaro backlash?
UBolsonaro kusafuneka enze isibhengezo malunga neziphumo zonyulo nokuba avume okanye atyhole ubuqhophololo. Iintsuku ezizayo ziya kunika uvavanyo lwesimilo sakhe kunye nohlobo lombutho owamzisa kumongameli.
Loo ntshukumo ngamanye amaxesha ibonakala njenge umanyano oluqinileyo yenkomo (agribusiness), iBhayibhile (abaqhankqalazi bevangeli) neembumbulu (iinxalenye zamapolisa nomkhosi, ngokunjalo izintlu ezisanda ngokwandiswa zabanini bemipu).
I-Bolsonaro inokuphinda iphinde oko wakuthethayo emva kwengxoxo yokugqibela ("nabanina oneevoti ezininzi uthatha unyulo") kwaye avume ukoyiswa. Kodwa unokuxelisa iqhawe lakhe kunye nomcebisi uDonald Trump kwaye azame ukusasaza ibali malunga nobuqhetseba, ale ukuvuma ukuba semthethweni koloyiso lonyulo lukaLula kwaye abe yinkokeli yeqela elichasayo kurhulumente omtsha.
Phantsi komthetho waseBrazil unelungelo loku khalaza isiphumo ngokwenza ityala kwinkundla ephakamileyo yonyulo, njengoko kwenza umgqatswa olahlekileyo ngo-2014, U-Aecio Neves we-PSDB. Kodwa kwakuza kufuneka angenise ubungqina obubambekayo. Isiphumo mhlawumbi siya kufana nesiphumo emva konyulo luka-2014, xa ekugqibeleni inkundla walawula ngokuchasene neNeves.
ULula uye wafikelela kwinkcaso kweyakhe intetho yokwamkela ngokuhlwa ngeCawe. Uthethe into engazange ithethwe nguBolsonaro emva koloyiso lwakhe luka-2018 - nangaliphi na ixesha ukusukela oko: "Ndiza kulawula abantu baseBrazil abazizigidi ezingama-215, hayi abo bandivoteleyo kuphela."
Kwakhona wabeka ezinye ze iinjongo zorhulumente wakhe wexesha elizayo. Awona acinezela kakhulu kukunciphisa indlala nobuhlwempu, ukukhawulezisa ukukhula koqoqosho, nokomeleza icandelo lezoshishino. Okubalulekileyo uLula ukwagxininise imfuneko yokusebenzisana namaqabane aphesheya ukucothisa isantya sokugawulwa kwamahlathi eAmazon.
Imiceli mngeni engaphambili
Urhulumente wakhe uya kuba nedabi eliphakamileyo. Iingxowa-mali zikarhulumente azinanto yakwenza xa uLula wayengumongameli wokugqibela. Ukonyuka okukhulu kowona mvuzo uphantsi, uLula abonakale ezibophelele kuwo ngexesha lephulo, kunokwenzeka ukuba kunyuse ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngoku isebenza malunga ne-7%. Imveliso ihleli imile kwaye ishishini - eliye lacutheka njengesabelo kuqoqosho lulonke - alinakhuphiswano kumazwe ngamazwe kumacandelo amaninzi.
Kodwa owona mceli mngeni mkhulu kaLula mhlawumbi uya kuba yezopolitiko. UBolsonaro usenokuba uphulukene nobumongameli, kodwa uninzi lwabalingane bakhe baphumelele izikhundla ezinamandla kwezopolitiko kwilizwe liphela. Abahlanu kubaphathiswa baseBolsonaro bangaphambili baphumelele iindawo kwi-Senate, apho i-Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) ineendawo ezinkulu zezihlalo. Amalungu amathathu ekhabhinethi yangaphambili yeBolsonaro aphumelele iindawo kwindlu esezantsi yeNkongolo yesizwe, apho i-PL ikwalelona qela likhulu.
Kwilizwe, abaviwa bahambelana Bolsonaro iphumelele i-11 kuma-27 uburhuluneli karhulumente, ngelixa abaviwa abahambelana noLula bephumelele isibhozo kuphela. Okubaluleke ngakumbi, amazwe amathathu amakhulu kunye nawona abalulekileyo eBrazil - iMinas Gerais, iRio de Janeiro, kunye neSao Paulo - aya kulawulwa ziirhuluneli ze-pro-Bolsonaro ukusuka ngo-2023.
UBolsonaro usenokuba ngenxa yokushiya umongameli-kodwa Bolsonarismo akayi ndawo.
Anthony Pereira - Unjingalwazi ondwendwelayo kwiSikolo seMicimbi yeHlabathi, iKing's College yaseLondon, ukwangumlawuli weKimberly Green Latin American kunye neCaribbean Centre kwiYunivesithi yaseFlorida International
