by Anthony Pereira - Ukhetho lwaseBrazil - ULuiz Inacio Lula da Silva usezuze ukubuya okumangalisayo kwezombusazwe ngokuphinde abe ngumongameli waseBrazil. Ukunqoba kwakhe okungatheni, emzuliswaneni wesibili, kube yisilinganiso esisondele kakhulu sokunqoba okhethweni kusukela iBrazil yabuyela entandweni yeningi ngasekupheleni kwawo-1980. Umphumela waba ngu-50.9% kuLula kwathi u-49.1% kumongameli osesikhundleni, u-Jair Bolsonaro - umehluko wamavoti angaphezulu kancane kwezigidi ezimbili kumavoti avumelekile acishe abe yizigidi eziyi-2.
Manje uLula umiselwe ihlandla lesithathu, iminyaka eyi-12 ngemuva kokuqeda ihlandla lakhe lesibili njengomongameli odume ngokungavamile owazuza kokubili ukukhula komnotho nokufakwa komphakathi phakathi kuka-2003 no-2010.
Ngesikhathi somkhankaso laba ababili ababeqhudelana nabo bakuchithile ngezindikimba ezithile abazijwayele: UBolsonaro ukhumbuze abavoti ngenkohlakalo edaluliwe mayelana namalungu amaningana okuphatha kukaLula. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uLula ugxeke uBolsonaro ngokungaphathi kahle kwakhe inkinga ye-COVID, lapho iBrazil yaqopha khona inombolo yesibili ephezulu yokufa ezweni lonke ngemuva kwe-United States.
Kodwa - ngokungafani nango-2018 lapho uLula ekhona inqume njengokungafaneleki ukugijima ngenxa yokugwetshwa kwakhe ngo-2017 amacala enkohlakalo (selokhu kwachithwa) kanye no-Bolsonaro esikhundleni salokho bashaya uFernando Haddad ongenalwazi nongaziwa ngokuqhathaniswa, lolu bekungelona ukhetho lapho inkohlakalo bekuyinkinga enkulu khona.
Esikhundleni salokho, umnotho ubonakale uyimbangela enkulu yabavoti abaningi. Umnyombo wokwesekwa kukaLula ugxile kakhulu emdlalweni abampofu enyakatho-mpumalanga. Ukwesekwa kukaBolsonaro kunamandla ikakhulukazi emakhaya aphila kangcono eningizimu, eningizimu-mpumalanga kanye nasenkabeni-ntshonalanga.
Umfelandawonye kaLula wamaqembu ayishumi bekuwumfelandawonye obanzi kusukela kwesokunxele kuya maphakathi-kwesokudla. Lo mkhankaso uhlanganise amabutho amabili ezombusazwe ayeyizitha ngeminyaka yawo-2000: I-Lula's Workers' Party (I-Partido dos Trabalhadores, noma i-PT) kanye nosopolitiki ababekade bengamalungu noma abasengamalungu e-Social Democratic Party emaphakathi-kwesokudla (I-Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, noma i-PSDB) kanye ne-Brazilian Democratic Movement (I-Movimento Democratico Brasileiro, noma i-MDB).
Isekela likamongameli likaLula kwaba nguye UGeraldo Alckmin, umKatolika odla ngoludala futhi oyilungu le-PSDB. Ilungu le-MDB Simone Tebet, ongenele ukhetho lukamongameli emzuliswaneni wokuqala, ukhankasele uLula ngomzuliswano wesibili futhi okungenzeka ukuthi uzonikwa indawo kukhabhinethi kaLula.
Esinye sezihluthulelo kuhulumeni wamaLula wakusasa ukuthi lo mfelandawonye ungahlala ndawonye. Yahlala ibumbene ngesikhathi somkhankaso, lapho yayinomgomo ofanayo wokunqoba umongameli owayekhona. Ukuthi izobugcina yini ubumbano kuhulumeni ngomunye umbuzo.
Ama-Fissures angavela lapho abaphathi kufanele benze izinqumo ezinzima mayelana nokuphathwa komnotho kanye nenselelo yokwakhiwa kabusha kwamandla ombuso kulezo zindawo ezilinyazwe kakhulu ngabaphathi beBolsonaro. Umonakalo ubonakala ikakhulukazi endaweni ezungezile, impilo yomphakathi, imfundo, amalungelo abantu kanye nenqubomgomo yangaphandle.
I-Bolsonaro backlash?
UBolsonaro kusamele enze isimemezelo ngomphumela wokhetho ukuthi avume noma asole ukukhwabanisa. Izinsuku ezizayo zizohlola isimilo sakhe kanye nohlobo lwenhlangano emlethe kwesobumengameli.
Lokho kunyakaza ngezinye izikhathi kubonakala ngokuthi a umfelandawonye oqinile yenkomo (agribusiness), iBhayibheli (amaprotestanti evangeli) kanye nezinhlamvu (izingxenye zamaphoyisa namasosha, kanye izinhlu ezisanda kukhuliswa zabanikazi bezibhamu).
U-Bolsonaro angaphinde aqale akusho ngemva kwenkulumo-mpikiswano yokugcina (“noma ngubani onamavoti amaningi uthatha ukhetho”) futhi avume ukunqotshwa. Kodwa angakwazi futhi ukulingisa iqhawe lakhe kanye nomeluleki uDonald Trump futhi azame ukusabalalisa indaba emayelana nokukhwabanisa, enqabe ukwamukela ukufaneleka kokunqoba kukaLula okhethweni futhi abe umholi weqembu eliphikisayo elingathembekile kuhulumeni omusha.
Ngaphansi komthetho waseBrazil unelungelo loku phikisa umphumela ngokufaka icala enkantolo ephakeme yokhetho, njengoba kwenza umuntu owalahlekelwa ngo-2014, U-Aecio Neves we-PSDB. Kodwa kwakuzodingeka alethe ubufakazi obuqand’ ikhanda. Umphumela ungase ufane nomphumela wangemva kokhetho lwango-2014, lapho inkantolo yagcina khona wabusa ngokumelene neNeves.
U-Lula ufinyelele kumaqembu aphikisayo kweyakhe inkulumo yokwamukela ngeSonto kusihlwa. Washo into uBolsonaro angakaze ayisho ngemuva kokunqoba kwakhe ngo-2018 - noma ngasiphi isikhathi kusukela lapho: "Ngizobusa abantu baseBrazil abayizigidi ezingama-215, hhayi labo abangivotele kuphela."
Wabuye wabeka ezinye zazo imigomo kahulumeni wakhe wesikhathi esizayo. Okucindezela kakhulu ukwehlisa indlala nobubha, ukusheshisa ukukhula komnotho, nokuqinisa umkhakha wezimboni. Okubalulekile uLula uphinde wagcizelela isidingo sokubambisana nabalingani bamazwe ngamazwe ukunciphisa izinga lokugawulwa kwamahlathi e-Amazon.
Izinselelo ezizayo
Uhulumeni wakhe uzoba nempi ekhuphukayo. Isikhwama sikahulumeni asinalutho njengoba sasinjalo ngesikhathi uLula engumongameli wokugcina. Ukwenyuka okukhulu kweholo elincane, uLula abonakala ezibophezela kukho ngesikhathi somkhankaso, kungenzeka kukhuphule ukwehla kwamandla emali, okwamanje isebenza cishe ku-7%. Ukukhiqiza kusamile futhi imboni - eye yancipha njengengxenye yomnotho wonkana - ayinakuncintisana namazwe ngamazwe emikhakheni eminingi.
Kodwa inselelo enkulu kaLula cishe kuzoba ngezepolitiki. Kungenzeka ukuthi uBolsonaro ulahlekelwe ubumongameli, kepha abaningi ababambisene nabo bawine izikhundla ezinamandla kwezepolitiki ezweni lonke. Ongqongqoshe abahlanu bakaBolsonaro bawine izikhala eSenate, lapho iBolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) inezihlalo ezinkulu kakhulu. Amalungu amathathu ekhabhinethi yangaphambili yeBolsonaro awine izikhala zendlu ephansi yeCongress kazwelonke, lapho i-PL futhi iyiqembu elikhulu kunawo wonke.
Ezifundeni, amakhandidethi aqondaniswe nawo Bolsonaro uwine ububusi bezifundazwe obuyi-11 kwezingu-27, kwathi amakhandidethi ahambisana noLula awina ayisishiyagalombili kuphela. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, izifunda ezintathu ezinkulu nezibaluleke kakhulu eBrazil - iMinas Gerais, iRio de Janeiro, neSao Paulo - zizobuswa ababusi be-pro-Bolsonaro kusukela ngo-2023.
UBolsonaro kungenzeka ukuthi ashiye isikhundla sikamongameli - kodwa I-Bolsonarismo akayi ndawo.
U-Anthony Pereira - UProfesa Ovakashele eSikoleni Sezindaba Zomhlaba, iKing's College London, futhi ungumqondisi weKimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Centre eFlorida International University.
