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Okunye okugqame kakhulu ukungabikho engxoxweni yaseVilnius ukuthi yini okufanele yenziwe ngeRussia. Yize ubulungu be-Ukraine (noma ukuntuleka kwayo), ukungena kweSweden kanye nezinkulumo-mpikiswano ezithinta ama-F-16 konke kwabonakala kukhulu, uma kukhulunywa ngezinto ezithinta usongo olucindezela kakhulu kwezokuphepha zase-Europe, kube nemibono embalwa yamasu eyethulwe ngale kokuvinjwa noma ukuhoxiswa ngokuphelele.
Ingxoxo eshaqisayo yaseRussia ayivelanga enkulumweni yokugcina kodwa eNgqungqutheleni Yomphakathi ye-NATO - lo mbhali ayithamele - ebibanjelwe eceleni kwengqungquthela. Engxoxweni yesigungu, uNobhala Wezokuvikela e-UK uBen Wallace kuphawulwe ukuthi kungaba iphutha ukulahla izinkulumo zobuholi obuphezulu baseRussia njengeziyinkulumo-ze. Ngenkathi uzama ukuzibeka njengento engafanele, izitatimende zomphakathi zinikeza izinkomba mayelana ne-barometer yezepolitiki yaseRussia, kanye nomuzwa wokuthi ubuholi baseRussia bawubona kanjani umhlaba. UWallace ubekhuluma ngendatshana edume kabi manje kaMongameli uVladimir Putin wabhala ngoJulayi 2021 mayelana ne-Ukraine, eyaveza inkolelo yakhe yokuthi i-Ukraine yayingelona izwe elizimele ngaphandle kweRussia. Nakuba le ndaba yayingesona isandulela esingenakugwenywa sokuhlasela okwalandela, uWallace uphakamise ukuthi ukufundwa eduze kwezitatimende ezisemthethweni kubonise ukuthi kwakuxoxwa kanjani nge-Ukraine emazingeni aphezulu ezombusazwe eRussia.
Le ngxoxo ibiyingxenye yephuzu mayelana nokubhebhetheka kwezikhali zenuzi e-Ukraine, kodwa yembula kabanzi ukuthi kusenezinto eziningi esingazazi mayelana nokuthathwa kwezinqumo zaseRussia mayelana nempi - ikakhulukazi lapho imigqa ebomvu yaseMoscow noma imingcele yokukhuphuka ingaba khona, noma umuzwa wangempela wokuthi i-Kremlin ichaza izenzo zamazwe aseNtshonalanga. Kulokhu, kufanelekile ukuhlola imibono nezenzo ezivela eMoscow ekuphenduleni ingqungquthela.
Ulungiselela Impi?
Enye yezimpendulo ezishaqisayo engqungqutheleni yavela ohlelweni lwezingxoxo lwaseRussia lwangesikhathi sokuqala i-60 Minutes, bathi ukuthi ukwakhiwa kwamabutho e-NATO kusho ukuthi i-NATO yayilungiselela impi neRussia. Naphezu kwemiyalezo ecacile evela ku-NATO yokuthi ayifuni ukungqubuzana neRussia, le ngqungquthela yahlelwa njengento ekhulayo, esongelayo ukungqubuzana okuqondile neRussia ne-Ukraine ibanjwe phakathi. Akekho ongaziwa ku-hyperbole, iphini likasihlalo woMkhandlu Wezokuphepha uDmitry Medvedev waxwayiswa ukuthi 'i-apocalypse yenuzi' kwakuyisimo esingase siphawule ukuphela kwempi. Khona-ke, ngosuku ngemva kokuphothulwa kwengqungquthela, umkhulumeli woMnyango Wezangaphandle uMaria Zakharova wahamba eminye Top, egcina ukuthi umbhalo ongezansi wengqungquthela bekuwukuthi i-NATO imemezele inhloso yayo yokuqalisa impi enkulu yaseYurophu.
Umbono wokuthi iRussia isendleleni yempi engenakuhlehliswa neNtshonalanga akuyona into entsha, futhi isibe yi- kuqhakanjiswe isihloko sengxoxo sekwephuzile. Kodwa uma iRussia isivele izibheka njengempi neNtshonalanga, futhi i-NATO ikholelwa ukuthi yenze konke ukugwema ukukhuphuka nokubhekana ngqo neRussia, khona-ke kunendawo engavamile kakhulu yokusebenza nayo. Kungase futhi kuhle ukucatshangelwa ukuthi iRussia ekholelwa ukuthi isivele isempini ingase izimisele ukuzibandakanya ekuziphatheni okuyingozi kakhulu nokungalindelekile, okwenza ukwehla nokuqonda imigqa ebomvu yangempela yaseMoscow kube inselele kakhulu.
Baphi Olayini Ababomvu?
Akunakwenzeka ukuthi kube ngengozi ukuthi nxazonke kule ngqungquthela, inkulumo-ze evela eRussia mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi yanda. Ekwakheni uVilnius, uPutin kugcinwe ukuthi iRussia yayihambise izikhali zenuzi eBelarus, futhi uMnyango Wezangaphandle (MFA) wabeka uchungechunge lwezimo (okungalindelekile kakhulu) zokuhoxiswa kwazo, njengokususwa kwawo wonke amabutho ase-US eYurophu. Kube khona futhi nezinye Izitatimende ezivela ku-Sergei Naryshkin, inhloko ye-SVR (ubuhlakani bangaphandle), ukuthi i-Ukraine yenza lokho okubizwa ngokuthi 'ibhomu elingcolile', cishe ngomzamo wokusunduza ukulandisa okungamanga. Iphephandaba le-Pro-government IKomsomolskaya Pravda ukuphakanyiswa ukuthi ngokwanda kwamabutho e-NATO (okungewona awenuzi), iRussia inelungelo lokuphendula, okuhlanganisa nokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi.
Ezinye ze-choreography zibalulekile lapha. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi ukuxhumana kwe-MFA mayelana nokumiswa kwezikhali zenuzi akuveli kuNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle u-Sergei Lavrov uqobo, kodwa kusikhulu esaziwa kancane nesincane esibizwa ngokuthi u-Alexei Polishchuk, ohola umnyango weCommonwealth of Independent States - hhayi indawo ebaluleke kakhulu eRussia njengamanje. Polishchuk has ifomu - uke wakhuluma nge-Ukraine esebenzisa izikhali zenuzi phambilini - kodwa akujwayelekile ukuthi umnyango wakhe uhole ngenkulumo emayelana nodaba olubaluleke kangaka.
Yize bekungeke kube ukuhlakanipha ukungaziba ukusayina kweRussia mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla enuzi, kubonakala sengathi i-Kremlin isilindele impendulo evela emazweni aseNtshonalanga noma nini lapho kushiwo, njengoba lokhu kubuyisela ku-ajenda ukuphuthuma kokuvula iziteshi zokuxhumana eziphuthumayo neRussia. Kungenzeka ukuthi iRussia ibheka impendulo yaseNtshonalanga njengobuthakathaka obungaba khona, noma kungaba ukuzama ukuphenya ukuzimisela kwe-NATO ukusebenzisa amandla enuzi. Noma, kungase kube ukufuna ukudala isisekelo sesikhathi esizayo sengxoxo esebenzayo yezokuphepha; neRussia ukumiswa ye-New START ngoFebhuwari 2023, okwamanje azikho izivumelwano zokulawula izikhali ezisekela ukuphepha kwezikhali zenuzi e-Europe - isimo esiyingozi esibangele inkulumompikiswano ebalulekile phakathi komphakathi wezemfundo eRussia, hhayi konke okukhulayo. Imizwa yomphakathi ibalulekile nalapha - inhlolovo yezokuhlalisana kwabantu ekhishwe ngomhlaka-13 Julayi iveze ukuthi izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zabantu baseRussia ephikisanayo ezweni lisebenzisa izikhali zenuzi e-Ukraine, noma ngabe - njengoba umbuzo wakhiwe - izoyinqoba impi. Kungenzeka ukuthi lolu cwaningo lujutshwe ukuthi luhlole amanzi, nokuthola ukuthi imibono yomphakathi ihambisana kangakanani nokuphawula kobuholi obuphezulu kamuva nje.
Konke lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi izingxoxo mayelana nezikhali zenuzi nokuthuthela kwazo eBelarus zingase zimelele ithuluzi lenqubomgomo yangaphandle kunokuzimisela kwangempela ukunyukela ezingeni eliphezulu. Nakuba kunzima ukunquma ukuthi ikuphi imingcele yaseMoscow, zimbalwa izingqinamba ezidonsa amehlo amazwe aseNtshonalanga njengombuzo wenuzi, futhi iRussia kungenzeka ibuke lokhu njengethuba lokuzibuyisela engxoxweni.
Senzenjani Ngalokhu?
Ukuthatha izitatimende zenqubomgomo yangaphandle yaseRussia ngendlela engokoqobo kunzima. Njengakuqala, izinhloso zayo ezihlosiwe zimelela inqwaba yezinhloso zokuzithokozisa kanye nemigomo evame ukuncintisana futhi ephikisanayo. Kodwa uma sicabanga ukuthi iRussia iyakholelwa ukuthi isivele ilwa ne-NATO, kufanele kube nengxoxo ecindezelayo mayelana nokuthi iNtshonalanga yenzani neRussia kusukela lapha.
Okokugcina kwe-NATO communique ibala iRussia izikhathi eziningi njengengozi enkulu futhi eqondile yokuhleleka komhlaba nokuvikeleka kwamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa okungakhulunywanga ngakho ukuthi ngabe kube khona yini ukuthuthuka okuhlangene selokhu kwaqala impi ekuqondeni kwe-Alliance kanye nokulindela ukuthi iMoscow icabanga kanjani - mayelana ne-NATO, noma mayelana nezimo zempi yenuzi, noma lapho eminye imigqa ebomvu ingaba khona. Uma impendulo iwukuthi akuzange kube khona ukuthuthuka, ngakho-ke akubonakali kunomqondo okuvunyelwene ngawo wokuthi lokho kungashintsha kanjani esikhathini eside, kanye nemithelela engokoqobo lokhu okungaba nayo ekusetshenzisweni kwezempi noma ukubeka phambili izinsiza.
Engqungqutheleni egxile kwezokuphepha, akuzange kubonakale kunokucabanga okuningi okuhlakaniphile kokuthi ungagwema kanjani ukucabanga ngeqembu mayelana nesitha esiyingozi kakhulu esingayiqondi ngokugcwele imiphetho yokukhuphuka kwayo.
Imibono evezwe kulo Mhlomulo ngeyombhali, futhi ayimele leyo kahulumeni woNgangezwe Lakhe, iRUSI nanoma yisiphi esinye isikhungo.
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