Iinqanawa zaseUkraine zibonakala zibuthathaka kakhulu kunomkhosi wasemanzini waseRussia
Xa uthi krwada nje, iinqanawa ezincinci zaseUkraine - kuphela ngama-5,000 oomatiloshe abasebenzayo kunye neqaqobana leenqanawa ezincinci eziselunxwemeni - zikhangeleka zibuthathaka kakhulu kunomkhosi wasemanzini waseRussia.
I-Kremlin's Black Sea Fleet ineenqanawa zemfazwe ezingaphambili ezingaphezu kwama-40. Abantu baseRussia babonakala bekulungele ukunqanda ukufikelela kwe-Ukraine elwandle- ngokusisiseko iphinda iphinda iqhinga le-Anaconda elalisetyenziswa nguMongameli wase-US wenkulungwane ye-19 u-Abraham Lincoln ukucinezela i-Confederacy.
Kodwa impumelelo yaseRussia ayinakuqinisekiswa, njengoko abantu baseUkraine bomelela ngendlela emangalisayo elwandle njengoko besemhlabeni, sele beqhube uhlaselo oluyimpumelelo kumkhosi waselwandle waseRussia, uJames Stavridis, owayesakuba ngumphathi-mkhosi, uxelele iBloomberg. yeNATO eYurophu.
Ingaba icandelo lomkhosi waselwandle wemfazwe yaseUkraine libukeka njani kwiinyanga ezizayo?
Ngaphezulu kweminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, ndatyelela izibuko laseCrimea laseSevastopol ndaza ndatya isidlo sasemini kunye nomphathi wase-Ukraine ophethe imisebenzi yaselwandle, uViktor Maximov. Sakwazi ukujonga iinqanawa zaseRashiya ezazimi kufuphi nelizwe.
Oku kwakungaphambi kohlaselo lwaseRashiya eCrimea ngo-2014, kodwa nalapho umthetheli-mkhosi waseUkraine wathi ngokufanelekileyo: “Ngokukhawuleza okanye kamva baya kuza kweli zibuko. Yaye iinqanawa zabo zomelele ngakumbi kunezethu. “
Ngelo xesha, ndawukhaba umbono wohlaselo olupheleleyo, kodwa uMongameli waseRashiya uVladimir Putin undibonakalise kabini ukuba ndiphosakele. I-Sevastopol isezandleni zaseRashiya kwaye ibanika inzuzo ecacileyo kwiimfazwe ezinokubakho elwandle.
Abantu baseRussia baneenqwelo zokulwa ezilungele ukulwa ezingaphezulu kweshumi elinesibini ezinokufikelela ngokuthe ngqo kumanzi angundoqo kumantla oLwandle oluMnyama kunye nolawulo oluyinxenye lweepesenti ezingama-60 zonxweme lwaseUkraine ukusuka eCrimea ukudlula kuLwandle lwaseAzov ukuya kwilizwe laseRussia. I-Ukraine ilahlekelwe ziinqanawa zayo eziphambili zemfazwe, ezathi zabanjwa okanye zatshatyalaliswa ngo-2014, kwaye kufuneka ithathe indlela yabanqolobi. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, udlala amakhadi akhe abuthathaka kakhulu.
Ukutshona okothusayo kwinyanga ephelileyo kwefulegi laseRussia kuLwandle oluMnyama, inqanawa yaseMoscow, yayingumzekelo omhle wendlela abantu baseUkraine abaya kusondela ngayo kwimfazwe elunxwemeni lwabo. Basebenzisa umjukujelwa wohambo olufutshane oluveliswe ekuhlaleni, iNeptune, baza babambisa abantu baseRashiya bengalungiselelanga. Ukungasebenzi kakuhle kwenkqubo yokhuselo lomoya yaseRussia, edityaniswe nolawulo lomonakalo ongalunganga, kwakhokelela ekulahlekeni kwenqanawa, ibhetri yayo yohambo olujulwayo olunzima kunye (ngokutsho kwabaseUkraine) amakhulu malunga nabasebenzi abangama-500.
Kwiveki ephelileyo, abantu baseUkraine babhengeze ukuba basebenzise iidrones zaseTurkey (ezisanda ukubonakala kumabala edabi kwihlabathi liphela) ukutshonisa izikhephe ezimbini zaseRussia.
Isiphumo sokuqhankqalaza kweMoscow kunye nokutshona kwezikhephe ezimbini kukuba abantu baseUkraine bazimisele ukulwa nolawulo kufutshane nonxweme. Ngokuqinisekileyo, i-hardware yaseNtshona iya kuba yimfuneko - i-UK ithembise ukubonelela ngekhulu lemijukujelwa ye-Brimstone yokulwa neenqanawa kule nyanga - kodwa ukujongwa kwakhona kwexesha lokwenyani kunye nokujolisa kuya kubaluleka. Kwimfazwe elwandle, apho iinqanawa zingakwazi ukufihla emva kweempawu zomhlaba, oku kubalulekile. Idabi laseMidway ebudeni beMfazwe Yehlabathi II, umzekelo, laguqukela eUnited States phantse ngokupheleleyo ngenxa yobuchule bobuntlola baseMelika bokukhokela umkhosi waselwandle waseJapan ogqwesileyo.
AmaRashiya kuya kufuneka eze namacebo amatsha. Oku kunokubandakanya ukusebenzisa ulwandle “njengendawo esecaleni” ukudlula imigca yabakhuseli baseUkraine emhlabeni, ngokufanayo nentshukumo kaGeneral Douglas MacArthur yokuya kumhlaba e-Incheon kuSingasiqithi waseKorea ngo-1950.
Enye inketho iya kuba kukuthintela izibuko elibaluleke kakhulu lase-Ukraine, i-Odessa, kwiinzame zokunciphisa uqoqosho lwase-Ukraine kwiimarike zehlabathi. Okwesithathu, amaRashiya anokuthi azame ukubonelela ngenkxaso enkulu yomlilo ovela elwandle ngokuchasene neenjongo zase-Ukraine elunxwemeni - mva nje babonise amandla okuqalisa imijukujelwa yokuhamba ngenqanawa kuhlaselo lwasemhlabeni olusuka kwinqanawa yangaphantsi, umzekelo.
Ukuchasa, abantu baseUkraine banokusebenzisa amava emikhosi yabo ephantsi, etshabalalisa amakhulu eetanki zaseRussia kunye neemoto ezixhobileyo, besebenzisa izixhobo ezingabizi kakhulu ezibonelelwa ngamaqabane aseNtshona. Iiyunithi ezikhethekileyo zoMkhosi waManzi wase-US zineseti elungileyo yokukhetha ukucima ukuthunyelwa kwenqanawa, kwaye ezinye zezi nkqubo kufuneka zinikezelwe kubantu baseUkraine.
Umongameli uJoe Biden ucetywayo we-33 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zepakeji yoncedo ye-Ukraine ibandakanya izixhobo zokhuselo lonxweme. Amanye amalungu e-NATO, anjengeNorway, aneenkqubo ezilungileyo kakhulu zonxweme abanokubonelela ngazo.
Kufanelekile ukuqwalasela inkqubo yokukhapha ye-Ukraine (kunye nezinye zelizwe) iinqanawa zabarhwebi ezifuna ukungena nokushiya i-Odessa. Oku kuya kufana nokukhapha kuka-Ernest Will okunikezelwe kwiinqanawa kwiPersian Gulf ngexesha leMfazwe yase-Iran nase-Iraq kwiminyaka yee-1980.
INtshona inokuthi iqhube uqeqesho lokulwa neenqanawa kumkhosi waselwandle waseUkraine ngaphandle kwelizwe, mhlawumbi eConstanta ekufutshane, eRomania. (Abantu baseRomania kutshanje baqalise ukunika ufikelelo kwiimpahla zaseUkraine ukusuka kweli zibuko.)
Esona siphelo siphezulu songquzulwano / somngcipheko, ii-Allies zinokuthathela ingqalelo uthumo lomkhosi waselwandle wokunceda abantu ukuba bakhuphe abantu (okanye imikhosi yasemkhosini yase-Ukraine) kwisixeko esigwetyiweyo saseMariupol. Ukuchaza oku njengomzamo wokunceda abantu kuya kwenza kube nzima ukuba iMoscow ihlasele iinqanawa ezithatha inxaxheba, kodwa kufuneka zixhobe ngokufanelekileyo kwaye zilungele ukukhusela umsebenzi.
ULwandle Olumnyama ubukhulu becala luphuma kumazwe ngamazwe. Iinqanawa zokulwa ze-NATO zikhululekile ukuba zihambe phantse naphi na apho zifuna khona, kubandakanywa namanzi ommandla waseUkraine kunye nommandla wezoqoqosho oziikhilomitha ezingama-200. Ukunikela ngala manzi eRashiya akunangqiqo. Endaweni yoko, kunokwenzeka ukuba babe ngabaphambili abalandelayo kwimfazwe yaseUkraine.
Ifoto: IGraffiti eSevastopol emva kokufakwa kweCrimea, ebonisa uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin / Bloomberg
Umthombo: Bloomberg TV Bulgaria
Qaphela: UJames Stavridis ngumbhali wemihlathi yeBloomberg Opinion. Ungumthetheli odla umhlala-phantsi woMkhosi waManzi wase-US kunye nowayesakuba yiNkumanda yoManyano ePhakamileyo kunye neDini eBekekileyo yeSikolo seFletcher soMthetho kunye neDiplomacy kwiYunivesithi yaseTufts. UkwanguSihlalo weRockefeller Foundation kunye neSekela likaMongameli weMicimbi yeHlabathi kwiCarlyle Group.
