Ukuphila kuncike ekulinganiseni okuhle phakathi kwamandla angaphakathi kanye nokuphuma kwamandla. Kodwa ukushisa umhlaba ngo-1.2℃ ngamagesi abamba ukushisa, kusho ukuthi sivale inani elimangalisayo lamandla engeziwe ohlelweni Lomhlaba.
Kakade sesizizwa sengathi sihlala esiqhingini esishisayo ezindaweni eziningi zeplanethi yethu. Uma isimo sezulu siqhubeka nokufudumala, lokhu kuzoba inkinga enkulu kithi sonke. Isithombe ngu-Raimond Klavins nge-Unsplash
Kusukela ngekhulu le-18, abantu bebelokhu bekhipha izinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi endaweni ephephile engaphansi komhlaba bese bezishisa ukuze bakhiqize ugesi noma imishini kagesi.
Manje sesiguqule amalahle, uwoyela negesi kwaba amathani angaphezu kwezigidigidi ezimbili ze-carbon dioxide ebamba ukushisa nokunye. greenhouse gesi futhi wawangeza emkhathini.
Umphumela wamanje? Izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile endaweni yeplanethi lishisa cishe ngo-1.2℃ kunangenkathi yangaphambi kwezimboni. Yingoba ukwengeza ikhabhoni entsha emjikelezweni wekhabhoni yemvelo emhlabeni kubangele ukungalingani kwenani lamandla angena futhi aphuma ohlelweni loMhlaba.
Ukufudumala iplanethi yonke kuthatha inani elingavamile lamandla engeziwe. Ucwaningo lwamuva kukhombisa ukuthi sengeze amandla amabhomu enuzi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 ohlelweni Lomhlaba eminyakeni engama-50 edlule.
Izigidigidi zamabhomu enuzi ukukhiqiza i-1.2 ℃ yokufudumeza - pho kuthiwani? Kubonakala kuncane, uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi izinga lokushisa liyahlukahluka kangakanani nsuku zonke. (The izweizinga lokushisa eliphakathi nendawo ngekhulu lama-20 lalingu-13.9℃.)
Kodwa cishe wonke la mandla kuze kube manje asethathwe izilwandle. Akumangalisi ukuthi sibona ukufudumala ngokushesha olwandle lwethu.
Izindawo zokuhlala e- Goldilocks
I-Mercury iyiplanethi eseduze neLanga. Kuyashisa, ngezinga lokushisa eliphakathi kuka-167℃. Kodwa ayinawo umkhathi. Yingakho i- iplanethi yesibili, Venus, ikhona ezishisayo ohlelweni sonozungezilanga, ngokwesilinganiso esingu-464℃. Lokho kubangelwa umkhathi ominyene kakhulu kunowoMhlaba, ominyene ku-carbon dioxide. Kungenzeka ukuthi iVenus yake yaba nezilwandle eziwuketshezi. Kodwa kwabe sekuvela umphumela we-greenhouse owabaleka, wabamba ukushisa okukhulu kakhulu.
Esinye sezizathu esisenza siphile ukuthi iplanethi yethu izungeza endaweni Indawo yeGoldilocks, ibanga elifanele ukusuka eLangeni ukuze lingashisi kakhulu futhi lingabandi kakhulu. Ukushisa okuncane eMhlabeni kudlulela oqweqweni olubandayo lapho sihlala khona. Lokho kusenza sincike komunye umthombo wokushisa - iLanga.
Lapho ukukhanya kweLanga nokushisa kushaya eMhlabeni, okunye kudonswa phezulu futhi okunye kuphinde kubonakale emkhathini. Sibona amandla athile akhishwa yiLanga ngoba iLanga liyashisa futhi izinto ezishisayo zikhipha imisebe engxenyeni ebonakalayo ye-spectrum kagesi.
Ngenxa yokuthi uMhlaba upholile kakhulu kuneLanga, imisebe ewukhiphayo ayibonakali, ngamaza amade amade e-infrared. Iningi lalamandla liya emkhathini - kodwa hhayi wonke. Amanye amagesi emkhathini wethu asebenza kahle kakhulu ekumunceni amandla kumaza amaza oMhlaba ophuma kuwo. Lawa magesi abamba ukushisa avela ngokwemvelo emkhathini woMhlaba, futhi agcina iplanethi ifudumele ngokwanele ukuba ikwazi ukuhlaleka. Leyo enye indawo ye-Goldilocks.
Bese kuba nendawo yesithathu ye-Goldilocks: umlando wakamuva. Yonke impucuko yabantu iye yavela eminyakeni eyi-10,000 epholile ngokungavamile ngemva kwenkathi yeqhwa yokugcina, lapho isimo sezulu besingakashisi kakhulu futhi singabanda kakhulu emhlabeni wonke.
Kodwa manje, sisengozini enkulu yokuziphushela ngaphandle kwezimo zezulu ezinethezekile ezavumela abantu ukuba banwebe, balime, bakhe amadolobha futhi bakhe.
Izibaseli eziminyene zamandla ezenze impucuko yezimboni yenzeka zifika nodosi olukhulu emsileni. Shisa manje, ukhokhe kamuva. Manje umthethosivivinywa usuyabonakala.
Sazi kanjani ukuthi lokhu kuyiqiniso? Amasathelayithi akala izinga lapho indawo Yomhlaba ekhipha ngayo ukushisa. Nganoma isiphi isikhathi, izinkulungwane I-Argo robotic iyantanta dot izilwandle zethu. Bachitha cishe zonke izimpilo zabo ngaphansi kwamanzi, bekala ukushisa, nangaphezulu ukuze badlulise idatha. Futhi singakwazi ukukala izinga lolwandle ngamazinga amagagasi namasathelayithi. Singakwazi ukuhlola izilinganiso phakathi kwazo zontathu izindlela.
Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu: amandla amaningi angena kunalawo aphumayo
Amagesi abamba ukushisa anamandla. Udinga kuphela ukugxila okuncane ukuze uthole umphumela omkhulu.
Sesivele senyuse inani le-carbon dioxide emkhathini cishe ngo-50%, futhi sengeza nenani elikhulu le-methane ne-nitrous oxide futhi. Lokhu kuphusha umphumela wethu we-greenhouse ogcina impilo ungalingani.
Kamuva cwaningo iphakamisa ukungalingani kwamandla kulingana nokubamba cishe ama-zettajoule angama-380 okushisa okwengeziwe kusukela ngo-1971–2020. (Isikhathi esiphakathi kuka-1971 namanje ama-akhawunti we cishe ama-60% azo zonke izinto ezikhishwayo).
I-zettajoule eyodwa iyi-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules - inombolo enkulu kakhulu!
U-Little Boy, ibhomu lenuzi elabhubhisa i-Hiroshima, lakhiqiza amandla alinganiselwa ku-15,000,000,000,000 joules. Lokhu kusho ukuthi umphumela wokukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa kwesintu kuleso sikhathi seminyaka engama-50 kuya ku-2020 cishe uphindwe izikhathi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 amandla akhishwa ibhomu lenuzi laseHiroshima.
Uma sibambe ukushisa okwengeziwe okungaka, kukuphi?
Kuze kube manje, cishe yonke ijoule yamandla engeziwe - cishe u-90% - isingene olwandle lwethu, ikakhulukazi ikhilomitha eliphezulu lamanzi. Amanzi awusinki wokushisa omuhle kakhulu. Kuthatha amandla amaningi ukuyishisa, kodwa sinayo. Izilwandle ezishisayo zinomthelela omkhulu ekwenziweni kokumhlophe kwamakhorali kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle.
Kuthatha isikhathi eside ukufaka lokhu kushisa okungaka olwandle, futhi uma sekukhona akushabalali. Ukubuyisela ukufudumala komhlaba ngokuphelele kungase kungenzeki. Ukumisa nje amazinga okushisa ukuya kunoma iyiphi ephakeme kusho ukulungisa ukungalingani kanye nokwehlisa amazinga e-CO2 ukuya ezingeni langaphambi kwezimboni elingu-280ppm.
Uma singafinyelela ekukhishweni kwegesi ebamba ukushisa eyi-net-zero, cishe sizokumisa okunye ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke futhi ukugxila kwe-carbon dioxide kuzoqala ukwehla kancane kancane.
Eqinisweni, lokhu kusho ukuncishiswa okusheshayo, okukhulu kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokusetshenziswa kokuthwebula ikhabhoni ukuze kunxeshezelwe ukukhishwa esingakwazi ukukuqeda.
Ukuqhubekela phambili nokupholisa iplanethi ibuyele esimweni sezulu sangaphambi kwezimboni kuzodinga ukukhishwa kwe-net-negative, okusho ukuthi kuzodingeka sikhiphe ikhabhoni eningi nakakhulu emkhathini kunanoma iyiphi intuthu ephumayo.
Ngeshwa, asikabi lapho. Ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa ebangelwa abantu ku- ukuphakama kwerekhodi eliseduze. Kodwa ukukhiqizwa kwamandla ahlanzekile liyakhula ngesivinini. Kulo nyaka lokhu okuhlanganisiwe akutholakalanga okokuqala ngqa ukuphuma kwamandla kuqale ukwehla.
Sisemjahweni, futhi izikhonkwane ziphezulu ngendlela ezingaba ngayo - ukuqinisekisa isimo sezulu esiphilayo ezinganeni zethu kanye nemvelo.
