NgoDisemba 1, uRobin Brooks, isazi sezomnotho esiyinhloko kanye nomqondisi ophethe we-Institute of International Finance, wabuza, “Kufanele uzibuze ukuthi kwenzekani e-EU. Ukuhlasela kukaPutin e-Ukraine kuwusongo olukhulu kukho konke i-EU ekumelelayo. Kodwa-ke kunezibonelo eziningi ezinjengalezi: Ukuthunyelwa kwe-EU e-Armenia kukhuphuke ngo-200% kusukela ekuhlaselweni. Lezi zinto ziya eRussia futhi zisiza uPutin. Wenzani uBrussels?”
Ngokuqondana nje, usuku olulodwa nje ngaphambili, ngo-November 30, i-Economist yathi “uPutin ubonakala enqoba impi yase-Ukraine—okwamanje.” Lesi sihloko sigqamise ukwehluleka kwamazwe aseNtshonalanga ukusebenzisa unswinyo olusebenzayo ngokumelene neRussia futhi sasho amazwe ambalwa abesiza umlingani wawo osobala: iTurkey, iKazakhstan, i-Iran, neNyakatho Korea.
Ayikhathazwa kakhulu unswinyo lwaseNtshonalanga, iRussia ikwazile ukukweqa ngempumelelo ngokuthola ama-drones e-Iran, izinhlamvu ezivela eNyakatho Korea, kanye nezimpahla ezahlukahlukene ngokusebenzisa iTurkey neKazakhstan. Uhlu lubonakala lufushane kakhulu, futhi alufaki i-Armenia okukhulunywe ngayo ngenhla. Leli zwe, ngokwemithombo eminingi, lingomunye wabalingani abakhulu baseRussia ekuthengeni izimpahla ezahlukahlukene ezivela e-EU naseMpumalanga Asia kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2022.
Isibonelo, i-Armenia ayikhiqizi izimoto, kodwa njenge- I-Financial Times iphawuliwe ngoJulayi 2023, izimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zisuka e-Armenia ziye eRussia zinyuke zisuka ku- $800,000 ngoJanuwari 2022 zaya ngaphezudlwana kwezigidi ezingama- $180 ngenyanga efanayo ka-2023.
Kodwa akuzona nje izimoto: ama-microchips, ama-smartphone kanye nenqwaba yezinye izimpahla ezingena eRussia nge-Armenia. Umbiko we-European Bank for Reconstruction and Development amanothi ukuthi "amaketanga amasha okuhlinzeka nge-Armenia [...] asungulwa phakathi nezinsuku zenswinyo, futhi kwathatha izinyanga ezimbalwa ukuwandisa". Ijoyinti isitatimende ngoMnyango Wezobulungiswa wase-US, Umnyango Wezohwebo, kanye Nomnyango Wezezimali wase-US bahlukanise i-Armenia “njengabaxhumanisi benkampani yangaphandle noma izindawo zokudlulisela ukuze kugwenywe unswinyo oluhlobene ne-Russian ne-Belarusian kanye nezilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle.”
Kubalulekile ukukuqaphela lokho cishe amaphesenti angu-40 okuthengiswa kwe-Armenia aya eRussia, ngohwebo oluningi oluhlanganisa ukuthunyelwa kabusha kwezimpahla zaseNtshonalanga iMoscow engakwazi ukuzithola ngokuqondile. Ngokusho kwesikhungo sezibalo sikahulumeni wase-Armenia, ukuhwebelana phakathi kwe-Armenia neRussia kucishe kwaphindeka kabili ngo-2022, kwafinyelela ku-$5.3 billion. Ukuthunyelwa kwe-Armenia eRussia kucishe kwaphindeka kathathu, kukhuphuke kusuka ku-$850 million ngo-2021 kuya ku-$2.4 billion ngo-2022 kanye no-$2.8 billion ngo-2023. Ukuhweba okuphelele kukaJanuwari-Agasti 151 kudlule amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.87., Ukuthunyelwa kwe-Armenian eRussia kwafinyelela ku-$ 2023 billion ngalesi sikhathi, kudlula ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe okokuqala, okwafinyelela ku-$ 4.16 billion.
Ngokusho koMnyango Wezezimali wase-US, I-Armenia yayisiza i-Russian Federation hhayi nje ekuthengisweni kwempahla yabantu, kodwa nasekuthengweni kwempahla yezempi.
Ishicilele ulwazi oluningiliziwe mayelana nokubandakanyeka kwenkampani yase-Armenia ekuthengeni imishini yangaphandle yemboni yezempi yaseRussia. Inkampani, ehlonzwe njenge-Aurora Group, kusolakala ukuthi ithenge izingxenye ze-elekthronikhi ezibucayi kubahlinzeki baseNtshonalanga yase iphinde yazithumela eRussia ngokwephula imikhawulo yokulawula ukuthekelisa.
Ngokusho kweBloomberg, kukhona ubufakazi yezingxenye zemishini yaseYurophu ezithunyelwa nge-Armenia ukuze zisetshenziswe ekukhiqizeni amasosha aseRussia.
Lo mbiko ucaphuna imibhalo mayelana nokuthunyelwa kanye nezingxoxo nochwepheshe bezimboni njengobufakazi bokuthi i-Armenia idlala indima ebalulekile ekusizeni iRussia ukuthi igweme unswinyo futhi igcine amandla ayo ezempi.
Telegraph kusho ukuthi ukukhula komnotho e-Armenia kwase kufinyelele kumaphesenti ayi-13 angenakwenzeka ngo-2022, okuyenza ingenele umnotho wesithathu okhula ngokushesha emhlabeni.
Leli phephandaba liphinde lashicilela umbiko we-German Center for the South Caucasus, “oveze ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kusuka eJalimane kuya e-Armenia kukhuphuke kusuka ku-€178 million kuya ku-€505 million ngo-2022. Lokho kuvela ezweni elilodwa nje le-EU. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kusuka e-Armenia kuya e-EU ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezifanayo kuphindwe kabili kusuka ku-€753 million kuya ku-€1.3 billion.
Njengoba kunesibalo sabantu abacishe babe yizigidi ezintathu kanye ne-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye engaphansi kweshumi le-avareji ye-Briton, lezi izinombolo ezingenakwenzeka. Kodwa zingokoqobo. Okusobala ukuthi ukungenisa nokuthekelisa okuvela eRussia - okungakhokhiswa intela futhi okungakhokhiswa intela phakathi kwawo wonke amazwe e-EAEU, kuphambukiselwa ngaphandle komthungo emazweni angaphandle ngokusebenzisa izifundazwe zawo zesathelayithi”.
Ngokusho the Jamestown Foundation, “ukwanda okukhulu kwenzuzo yohwebo lwangaphandle lwase-Armenia ngaphandle kwesisekelo esiqinile somnotho wakuleli, ikakhulukazi ukwanda okuphawulekayo kwempahla ethunyelwa eRussia, kanye nohlu lwemikhiqizo edayiswayo ngokuyinhloko, kunikeza isizathu sokucabanga ukuthi lezi zinguquko zingezokwenziwa nokuthi i-Armenia iqondile. abathintekayo ekuthumeleni kabusha imikhiqizo egunyaziwe eRussia.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokwe-Bureau of Industry and Security yase-US, i-Armenia yenyuse ukuthengwa kwama-microchips nama-processors asuka e-US ngo-515% futhi isuka e-European Union ngo-212%—bese kubikwa ukuthi ithumele u-97% waleyo mikhiqizo eRussia”.
Ngokukamagazini wasePoland I-New Eastern Europe, i-Yerevan isiza iMoscow ukuthi yeqe unswinyo lwe-EU, US, kanye ne-UK ngokwenza lula ukuthuthwa kwama-drones nemicibisholo yase-Iranian.
Lo magazini ucaphuna imininingwane yokusebenza kwezindiza ezisuka eYerevan's Zvartnots International Airport, lapho indiza yeSoviet Ilyushin-76MD kusolwa ukuthi ithuthe ama-drones ase-Iran aya eRussia. I-Iran Air Cargo, inkampani egunyazwe yi-US, ibonwe izindiza zidlula esikhumulweni sezindiza i-Yerevan ziya futhi zibuya eMoscow, kanye nezinye izinhlangano zase-Iranian ezithintekayo ekuletheni ama-drones ase-Iranian eRussia ngezikhumulo zezindiza zase-Armenia.
Ngokusho kwemithombo yase-Ukraine, i-Armenia ikhuthele usebenzisa umzila wasolwandle oxhuma amachweba ase-Batumi (Georgia) kanye ne-Novorossiysk (Russia) ukuze athumele kabusha izimpahla ezigunyaziwe e-Russian Federation. Ngakho-ke, i-Armenian Shipping Company inesibopho sokuthuthwa kwamasonto onke kweziqukathi ze-600 ngomzila wasolwandle wase-Batumi-Novorossiysk.
UNdunankulu wase-Latvia u-Krišjānis Kariņš naye uphawule ngendima ekhulayo ye-Armenia ekuthumeleleni eRussia imishini nobuchwepheshe obuvunyelwe baseNtshonalanga.
Kodwa-ke, ukunyakaza kukaYerevan kulo mdlalo akugcini ekudlulisweni kobuchwepheshe. U-Kariņš waveza ukuthi kunezindlela ezimbili zokubhekana nalokhu: ukukhuluma nge-Armenia ngakho noma “ukubheka umthetho kulo lonke elaseYurophu, ukuze siqinisekise ukuthi sikwenza kube yicala ukugwema unswinyo. Vala izintuba!”, - wabuza ngenkani. Izijeziso ziyasebenza, inkinga ukuthi badinga ukuphoqelelwa kulabo abasiza iRussia ukubagwema.
