E-Paris, Okthoba 24, 2023: Ku-2024 yayo I-Outlook yemakethe ye-Foreign Exchange ekhishwe kuleli sonto, iBanFirst, umhlinzeki ohamba phambili womhlaba wonke wokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle kanye nezinkokhelo zamazwe ngamazwe zamabhizinisi, okhona emazweni angu-10 aseYurophu, uhlinzeka ngama-SME, ikakhulukazi lawo enza izinkokhelo zamazwe ngamazwe, uhlaka lwamathrendi abalulekile onyaka ozayo. Inhloso iwukusiza ama-SME ukuthi alolonge isu lawo lokulawula ubungozi bohlobo lwemali luka-2024. Kulezi zikhathi zokukhula okuphansi nezinsongo kumamajini, ukukhulisa izinkokhelo zamazwe ngamazwe akuseyona inketho yawo.
- Ukuntengantenga kwemakethe yokushintshiselana kwamanye amazwe, okwehle phakathi nengxenye yokuqala ka-2023, ngenxa yezinqubomgomo zezimali ezivumelanisiwe, kukulungele ukubuya ngo-2024, okuveza ama-SME ezindlekweni ezikhuphukayo kanye nokungaqiniseki kwebhizinisi.
- I-Euro isabiza kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nedola; inani elifanelekile lohlobo lwemali olulodwa lisondele cishe ku-1.03-1.05. Kuma-SME enza uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, lokhu kusho izindleko eziphezulu zokungenisa impahla noma ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphandle okuncintisana kancane. Bangazivikela ngamasevisi okulawula ubungozi noma bangacabangela ukunwetshwa kwebhizinisi libe izimakethe ezizinzile.
- Imicimbi ebalulekile okulindeleke ukuthi ibe nomthelela ezimakethe zemali yase-Europe ngo-2024 ihlanganisa inkinga entsha yamandla, ukubuya kwe-stagflation, kanye nengozi enkulu yokwehla komnotho.
Ngabe ukuntengantenga kwemakethe ye-FX kuzowathinta kanjani ama-SME ngo-2024?
Ngo-2024, njengoba kulindeleke ukuthi kubuye ukuntengantenga kohlobo lwemali, ngisho nokuguquguquka okuncane kwamazinga okushintshanisa kungase kube nomthelela emalini yenzuzo yamabhizinisi ohwebo, kuphazamise ukuncintisana kwawo ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuthi izinkampani ezithumela kwamanye amazwe ziqonde, zilindele, futhi zivikele ekuguquguqukeni kwemali, njengoba zingathonya kakhulu ukusebenza kwazo kwezezimali ngalezi zikhathi zomnotho eziyinselele.
"Izimakethe zemali kulindeleke ukuthi zibuyele ezimeni eziguquguqukayo ngo-2024. Lokhu kungenxa yezici ezihlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ukungqubuzana kwase-Ukraine, inkinga enkulu engase ibe khona eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye nokungaqiniseki okuphathelene nokwehla kwamandla emali. Kubalulekile ukusho ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwemali akuyona inkinga kuphela ezinkampanini ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe; zingathinta amabhizinisi abo bonke osayizi, kuhlanganisa Ama-SME abathintekayo ekuhwebeni kwemingcele. Ngenxa yalokhu, abanikazi bamabhizinisi, ama-CEO, nama-CFO kufanele bagcine iso elibukhali ezintweni ezithinta imakethe. Okusengcupheni: ukugwema ukulahlekelwa yimalini ebalulekile kulezi zikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu", uthi Pierre-Antoine Dusoulier, i-CEO kanye noMsunguli we-iBanFirst.
Kuma-SME enza uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ukuntengantenga kwemakethe yemali kungadala izinselelo ezimbalwa ezifana nalezi:
● Izindleko ezinyusiwe: Ukuntengantenga kwemakethe yemali kungenza kube nzima kakhulu ezinkampanini eziphuma kwamanye amazwe nezithumela ngaphandle ukubikezela izindleko zazo.
● Imali engenayo encishisiwe: Imali engenayo yezinkampani eziphuma kwamanye amazwe nezithumela ngaphandle ingabhalisa ukwehla, okuholela ekulahlekeni kwesabelo semakethe kanye nokuncipha kwenzuzo.
● Ukungaqiniseki okukhulayo: Lokhu kungenza kube nzima kakhulu ukuthi izinkampani zenze izinqumo zokutshala izimali futhi zihlelele ikusasa.
● Ukulimala kwesithunzi: Ukuntengantenga kwemakethe yemali kungenza kube nzima ukuthi izinkampani zihlangabezane nezibopho zazo zenkontileka futhi ngenxa yalokho zibone isithunzi sazo sonakaliswa.
Izinkampani ezenza ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe nokho zingathatha izinyathelo ezimbalwa ukuze zinciphise izinselele zokuntengantenga kwemakethe yemali, njenge:
● Gada izimakethe zemali njalo ukuze uhlale unolwazi mayelana nezitayela zakamuva. Lokhu kuzosiza ama-SME ukuthi abone ubungozi obungaba khona futhi athathe izinyathelo zokunciphisa lezo zingozi.
● Yakha uhlelo lokulawula ubungozi bohlobo lwemali ukuhlonza kanye nokunciphisa ubungozi bokuguquguquka kwemali. Uhlelo kufanele lubandakanye isu lokubiyela namanye amathuluzi okulawula ubungozi.
● Sebenzisa uchwepheshe wokuphatha imali ukuze babasize bathuthukise futhi basebenzise uhlelo lokulawula ubungozi bohlobo lwemali.
I-EUR/USD isibikezelo sika-2024
Ngokusekelwe ezintweni eziyisisekelo zezomnotho, abahlaziyi be-iBanFirst babonga ukuthi i-euro isabiza kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nedola nokuthi inani elifanelekile lisondele cishe ku-1.03-1.05. Ngokuphambene nokuvumelana kwemakethe, abahlaziyi be-iBanFirst bayangabaza ukuthi idola laseMelika lizokwehla kakhulu ngo-2024. Umnotho wase-US wenza kahle futhi noma kungenzeka wehle ngo-2024, akukho ukwehla komnotho okubonakalayo.
Nakuba abahlaziyi abaningi bebikezela inani elincishisiwe yi-Fed phakathi nekota yokuqala yonyaka, balindele ukuthi ukumisa isikhashana kwenqubomgomo yezimali kuzohlala isikhathi eside kunalokho okulindelekile okwamanje, kugcina amanani enzalo eqiniso emazingeni akhangayo e-US. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izimo zomnotho eziya ziba zimbi emhlabeni wonke kungenzeka ziqinise amandla edola njengoba libonakala njengemali ephephile ngezikhathi zokungaqiniseki.
Isibikezelo esibhangqiwe se-EUR/JPY sango-2024
Ukuvumelana kwe-Reuters kulindele ukuthi inqubomgomo yezimali yase-Japan ihlale ingashintshiwe okungenani kuze kube nguJulayi 2024. Ngokombono, lokhu kufanele kuholele ekwehleni kwe-yen isikhathi eside. Kodwa ngokusho Abahlaziyi be-iBanFirst, IBhange LaseJapan lingakhuphula izinga lenqubomgomo yalo ekupheleni kuka-2023. Lokhu kungaba ukwenyuka okuncane, cishe amaphuzu ayisisekelo ayi-10. Kodwa kuyokwanela ukuphakamisa izinga lenqubomgomo endaweni enhle - ushintsho olubalulekile eJapane. Kungenzeka ukuthi abatshalizimali bazophinde bathathe izikhundla ezinde ku-JPY, okubangele ukuthi ipheya ye-EUR/JPY yehle.
Imicimbi ebalulekile ezothonya izimakethe zemali yase-Europe ngo-2024
Njengoba sisondela ekupheleni kuka-2023 futhi sibheke phambili ku-2024, naphezu kokungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo emnothweni womhlaba, kusenezinkomba ezimbalwa ezinganikeza amasignali mayelana nokuvela kwemakethe ye-forex ngonyaka ozayo.
- Inkinga entsha yamandla ikakhulukazi uma isimo se-geopolitical eMpumalanga Ephakathi siwohloka nakakhulu. Okwamanje, izinga lenhlekelele alibi kakhulu njengelonyaka odlule.
- Ukubuya kwe-stagflation e-Europe njengoba idatha yakamuva yembula ukukhula komnotho okuntekenteke kanye namazinga okwehla kwamandla emali aphezulu kunalokho obekulindelwe eJalimane naseFrance. Isimo sase-UK sibukeka sikhathaza.
- Ingozi ephezulu yokuwohloka komnotho ku-Eurozone kunqunywa ukubambezeleka kokubuyela emuva komnotho kwangemva kwe-Covid, inkinga yamandla ehlala njalo, kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali ekhawula ngokweqile.
Umbiko ogcwele uyatholakala lapha: https://shorturl.at/chR19.
Mayelana ne-iBanFirst
Yasungulwa ngo-2016, i-iBanFirst inikeza isizukulwane esilandelayo sokukhokha emngceleni ohlanganisa inkundla enamandla nokusekelwa ochwepheshe be-FX. Njengoba inabasebenzi abangaphezu kuka-350 emazweni angu-10 aseYurophu, icubungula inani lemisebenzi ebiza ngaphezu kwama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.4 inyanga ngayinye, futhi ifakwe ohlwini yi-Financial Times njengenye yezinkampani ezikhula ngokushesha eYurophu, i-iBanFirst ibe ngaphansi kweminyaka eyi-10 yaba nguzakwethu omethembayo. Ama-SME anqamula imingcele.
I-iBanFirst inoxhaso lwezezimali lwebhange lokutshalwa kwezimali lomphakathi laseFrance (i-bpiFrance), abaholi bengqalasizinda yaseYurophu (u-Elaia, u-Xavier Niel), kanye nesikhwama sokutshala imali saseMelika i-Marlin Equity Partners (ngaphezu kwamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8 ngaphansi kokuphathwa). Ilawulwa yi-National Bank of Belgium njengesikhungo sokukhokha, i-iBanFirst igunyazwe ukusebenza kuyo yonke i-European Union. Ilungu lenethiwekhi ye-SWIFT kanye ne-SEPA eqinisekisiwe, i-iBanFirst iphethe izigunyazo ze-AISP ne-PISP ngaphansi kwe-PSD2.
